[BostonCard]

I think this is a problem where the can has been kicked down the road for years because no one wanted to deal with it long term. Now the problem has grown to being almost too hard to even manage. For some time Israel supported Qatari payments to Hamas, then it all blew up. 

The problem is extremely complex and has existed for years in various forms. So is there any solution to the current problem without one of the two sides giving up?

In some ways, ever since the first successful nuclear test, the genie has been out of the bottle.  In some ways, it is remarkable that the technology has not spread further in the ensuing 80 years (next month will mark the 80th anniversary from trinity, the first atomic weapon test).

Probably the only way to be absolutely sure that Iran doesn’t develop a nuclear weapon would be a ground invasion, and systematic dismantlement of every part of the nuclear program.  While I would never say never, I would like to think that nobody has any sort of appetite for what that would entail.

Second best would be a long term negotiated treaty with verifiable monitoring of the program.  Ironically, we had that with the JCPOA.  No, it didn’t forever restrict Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, but neither did this attack, and if Iran had even a moderate setback, its best strategy is probably to find a way to sprint to a weapon as quickly as possible and hope that it completes it before another attack.

BC

[BostonCard]

I think this is a problem where the can has been kicked down the road for years because no one wanted to deal with it long term. Now the problem has grown to being almost too hard to even manage. For some time Israel supported Qatari payments to Hamas, then it all blew up. 

The problem is extremely complex and has existed for years in various forms. So is there any solution to the current problem without one of the two sides giving up?

In some ways, ever since the first successful nuclear test, the genie has been out of the bottle.  In some ways, it is remarkable that the technology has not spread further in the ensuing 80 years (next month will mark the 80th anniversary from trinity, the first atomic weapon test).

Probably the only way to be absolutely sure that Iran doesn’t develop a nuclear weapon would be a ground invasion, and systematic dismantlement of every part of the nuclear program.  While I would never say never, I would like to think that nobody has any sort of appetite for what that would entail.

Second best would be a long term negotiated treaty with verifiable monitoring of the program.  Ironically, we had that with the JCPOA.  No, it didn’t forever restrict Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, but neither did this attack, and if Iran had even a moderate setback, its best strategy is probably to find a way to sprint to a weapon as quickly as possible and hope that it completes it before another attack.

BC