07-20-2025, 03:27 PM
(07-18-2025, 08:54 AM)M T Wrote: OTOH, while the military action will be quite different, the gauging of the will of the countries is probably relevant.The response of the "other countries", particularly the US, Japan and South Korea would be a similar blockade of the Chinese coast. It wouldn't be "embargoes" etc. The US would also almost immediately attempt to run an escorted convoy through the Chinese blockade into a Taiwanese port. If the PLAN shoots at the convoy, it will become a war. Make them chose. If they back off, problem solved.
For instance, if China simply blockaded Taiwan, how would other countries react and for hiw long until they got tired of it? For that matter, how would the other countries implement and execute non-military options (embargoes, etc)
The reason this will be the response is that fairly quickly the ROC themselves will have to force a convoy through the blockade. China may well be willing to sink a ROC vessel, assuming Taiwan would be unwilling to immediately start a shooting war and not worrying too much if they do. A US national ship would be another thing entirely. Also, if the "other countries" wait for the naval/air battle to actually start before they bring their forces forward they will be arriving late into an already in motion war. Never a good idea. Before the war starts you can assume China isn't going to shoot at US ships on the way to the area. After it starts, that is obviously not the case.
