[GK3]

As far as I understand it, Russia wants to claim territory in Donetsk and Luhansk that it does not control.  It would be one thing for Ukraine to cede land that it has lost militarily; it’s quite another to cede land that it still controls.  Furthermore, the land that Russia seeks is heavily fortified, and much more defensible than the land ahead of it.  The very legitimate worry on Ukraine’s side is that if it agrees to cede the land, then Russia regroups and attacks from there at some future date.

It would be great if we can get to a peace in Ukraine and Russia. But I don’t think Putin wants peace; he wants a capitulation.  Failing that, he wants to give Trump the illusion that he is willing to push for peace, to give him time and space to accomplish his maximalist goals militarily.  Based on what we’ve seen in the last week, I don’t think there is any difference in the assessment that Putin is “tapping us along” (to use Trump’s term).  I hope I am wrong, and that we get to a peace, even one that involves painful concessions by Ukraine.  But I think Putin is deliberately sticking to a demand that will be a bridge too far for Ukraine to take because he doesn’t want a peace deal; he just wants to look like he is not the obstacle to peace.

BC

No question in my mind is that if Ukraine gives up an inch it will just postpone the next attack, this time probably much better prepared. Anybody who thinks Putin will accept any solution other than full control of Ukraine just isn't thinking.  IF and only IF what is left of Ukraine is accepted into 
NATO with full rights under article 5 maybe  some sort of real peace might be possible. Out best solution is to let the actuarial tables catch up with Putin so we can deal with his successor whoever that might be.

[GK3]

As far as I understand it, Russia wants to claim territory in Donetsk and Luhansk that it does not control.  It would be one thing for Ukraine to cede land that it has lost militarily; it’s quite another to cede land that it still controls.  Furthermore, the land that Russia seeks is heavily fortified, and much more defensible than the land ahead of it.  The very legitimate worry on Ukraine’s side is that if it agrees to cede the land, then Russia regroups and attacks from there at some future date.

It would be great if we can get to a peace in Ukraine and Russia. But I don’t think Putin wants peace; he wants a capitulation.  Failing that, he wants to give Trump the illusion that he is willing to push for peace, to give him time and space to accomplish his maximalist goals militarily.  Based on what we’ve seen in the last week, I don’t think there is any difference in the assessment that Putin is “tapping us along” (to use Trump’s term).  I hope I am wrong, and that we get to a peace, even one that involves painful concessions by Ukraine.  But I think Putin is deliberately sticking to a demand that will be a bridge too far for Ukraine to take because he doesn’t want a peace deal; he just wants to look like he is not the obstacle to peace.

BC

No question in my mind is that if Ukraine gives up an inch it will just postpone the next attack, this time probably much better prepared. Anybody who thinks Putin will accept any solution other than full control of Ukraine just isn't thinking.  IF and only IF what is left of Ukraine is accepted into 
NATO with full rights under article 5 maybe  some sort of real peace might be possible. Out best solution is to let the actuarial tables catch up with Putin so we can deal with his successor whoever that might be.