[Goose]

I warhead that large can do some serious damage to a manufacturing facility, refinery or tank farm.  Big question can they get enough through.

This is a great question. There have never before in history been "precision" long range weapons that could hit a very specific target with a "big" (1000-2000 lb warhead) at ranges of 500 miles or so. We have seen weapons used that could carry such a warhead (the German V-1) over that kind of distance but not with anywhere near the accuracy required. The closest analog history has for us is probably the US glide bomb attacks against Iraq. Those bombs didn't win the war for the US. We still had to send troops into the country and invade it.
 
Much to the chagrin of the precision weapons advocates the vast majority of war games indicate that precision weapons cannot render a country incapable of continuing aggressive war. They can do lots of damage. The strategic bombing campaign of WW II did lots of damage, not using accuracy but rather mass. It clearly did not end the war. OTOH it clearly damaged the axis powers ability to wage war.
 
It may be there is a set of critical targets that, if destroyed, would force Russia to stop fighting. Hopefully there is and Ukraine knows what they are :-). There may be a set of targets that if threatened would cause the Russian people to politically force Russia to stop fighting. Unfortunately IMO that is an even harder set of targets to name.
 
There is an argument that in WW II the US naval blockade of Japan would have very quickly forced a Japanese surrender without an invasion of Japan. Similarly, it can be argued that Germany would have been starved into submission if WW I had continued even a few months longer. I don't think precision missiles carrying 1 ton warheads can do that to Russia. However, it would be foolish not to try.

[Goose]

I warhead that large can do some serious damage to a manufacturing facility, refinery or tank farm.  Big question can they get enough through.

This is a great question. There have never before in history been "precision" long range weapons that could hit a very specific target with a "big" (1000-2000 lb warhead) at ranges of 500 miles or so. We have seen weapons used that could carry such a warhead (the German V-1) over that kind of distance but not with anywhere near the accuracy required. The closest analog history has for us is probably the US glide bomb attacks against Iraq. Those bombs didn't win the war for the US. We still had to send troops into the country and invade it.
 
Much to the chagrin of the precision weapons advocates the vast majority of war games indicate that precision weapons cannot render a country incapable of continuing aggressive war. They can do lots of damage. The strategic bombing campaign of WW II did lots of damage, not using accuracy but rather mass. It clearly did not end the war. OTOH it clearly damaged the axis powers ability to wage war.
 
It may be there is a set of critical targets that, if destroyed, would force Russia to stop fighting. Hopefully there is and Ukraine knows what they are :-). There may be a set of targets that if threatened would cause the Russian people to politically force Russia to stop fighting. Unfortunately IMO that is an even harder set of targets to name.
 
There is an argument that in WW II the US naval blockade of Japan would have very quickly forced a Japanese surrender without an invasion of Japan. Similarly, it can be argued that Germany would have been starved into submission if WW I had continued even a few months longer. I don't think precision missiles carrying 1 ton warheads can do that to Russia. However, it would be foolish not to try.