[M T]

I wonder whether whoever follows Putin will be worse...

Considering that Russia has little diversity in the political arena (but perhaps that is just in my mind due to Western news), it seems like any replacement would come from either the military or from someone backed by the oligarchs.

In either case, the person or party would have to win/force the support of the other half (military or oligarchs).  That might be a mediating effect.

The oligarchs are probably unhappy with the West for taking their assets but they might be realistic enough to know that working with the West is better than fighting against it.  OTOH, they have the Chinese market to consider as well.

Anyone from the military is going to know that their standing army is only barely standing.  It would take an utterly insane person to use nuclear weapons, especially with the Ukraine war showing that Russian weapon systems have generally not lived up to their claims.   They may be hard line, but I don't think they can be hard line in the near term.

I imagine there are those that long for the days of the USSR and control of the now-separated countries.  They might be a problem, going in the same direction as Putin.

One area that Russia could continue to expand is in cyberwarfare.  I don't know how close the Russian-China-West sides are to mutually assured destruction in the cyber arena, but an all-out war between any two would likely be devastating to the economies. 

Is there anyone that Putin has groomed to be his successor?

[M T]

I wonder whether whoever follows Putin will be worse...

Considering that Russia has little diversity in the political arena (but perhaps that is just in my mind due to Western news), it seems like any replacement would come from either the military or from someone backed by the oligarchs.

In either case, the person or party would have to win/force the support of the other half (military or oligarchs).  That might be a mediating effect.

The oligarchs are probably unhappy with the West for taking their assets but they might be realistic enough to know that working with the West is better than fighting against it.  OTOH, they have the Chinese market to consider as well.

Anyone from the military is going to know that their standing army is only barely standing.  It would take an utterly insane person to use nuclear weapons, especially with the Ukraine war showing that Russian weapon systems have generally not lived up to their claims.   They may be hard line, but I don't think they can be hard line in the near term.

I imagine there are those that long for the days of the USSR and control of the now-separated countries.  They might be a problem, going in the same direction as Putin.

One area that Russia could continue to expand is in cyberwarfare.  I don't know how close the Russian-China-West sides are to mutually assured destruction in the cyber arena, but an all-out war between any two would likely be devastating to the economies. 

Is there anyone that Putin has groomed to be his successor?