[Mick]

I wonder if Ukraine is Putin's biggest problem. I don't even think NATO is Russia's biggest problem. Russia’s problem isn’t the West, United States and NATO. We don’t want Russian territory.

But China might.

Tsarist Russia took A LOT of territory from China, specifically the pre-1858 Qing dynasty. They took outer Manchuria, Ili/Kuldja Valley, Eastern Kazakhstan Steppe, Transbaikal/Argun. All taken between 1689 and 1881, total land about 1.5 million square kilometers.

And Russia has what China needs. Oil and other natural resources, like water…Lake Baikal has 20% of the world’s fresh water, and China has used most of their fresh water in Northern China. Southern tip of Lake Baikal is 85 miles from the current Chinese border, and 1,500  feet +/- above sea level. They could build a 100-mile pipeline to Outer Mongolia or a 250-mile pipeline to Northern China (much of it at sea level) and take the water, if they had access.

Incidentally, Putin has said “if you really feel deeply about a place, forget about treaties and boundaries. You should just take it.” Might come back to haunt him.

Russia has depleted much of its ordnance, thanks to the Ukraine war. They are weakened.

War is not likely Xi Jinping's first choice, but...China needs the resources, and Russia is weakened. A hard bargain may be in the offing...

[Mick]

I wonder if Ukraine is Putin's biggest problem. I don't even think NATO is Russia's biggest problem. Russia’s problem isn’t the West, United States and NATO. We don’t want Russian territory.

But China might.

Tsarist Russia took A LOT of territory from China, specifically the pre-1858 Qing dynasty. They took outer Manchuria, Ili/Kuldja Valley, Eastern Kazakhstan Steppe, Transbaikal/Argun. All taken between 1689 and 1881, total land about 1.5 million square kilometers.

And Russia has what China needs. Oil and other natural resources, like water…Lake Baikal has 20% of the world’s fresh water, and China has used most of their fresh water in Northern China. Southern tip of Lake Baikal is 85 miles from the current Chinese border, and 1,500  feet +/- above sea level. They could build a 100-mile pipeline to Outer Mongolia or a 250-mile pipeline to Northern China (much of it at sea level) and take the water, if they had access.

Incidentally, Putin has said “if you really feel deeply about a place, forget about treaties and boundaries. You should just take it.” Might come back to haunt him.

Russia has depleted much of its ordnance, thanks to the Ukraine war. They are weakened.

War is not likely Xi Jinping's first choice, but...China needs the resources, and Russia is weakened. A hard bargain may be in the offing...