[Goose]

https://www.wsj.com/world/russia-ukraine...?st=Xv3cup

A little bit of a breakdown of how the plan came to be.  Whether it was an “American” or “Russian” plan, it certainly had a lot of Russian influence.

I think this administration wants to get a peace deal done, but doesn’t care much about the details. While I am not particularly sympathetic to the administration, and given prior Russian actions I don’t really trust a “peace deal” with Russia, there is something to be said to getting the fighting stopped, and then worrying about how you get the fighting not to start again.  That seems to be what the administration did with the Gaza war.  The difference between the Gaza war and the war in Ukraine is that the US had leverage over Israel and was willing to use it, and had Middle Eastern allies who had leverage over Hamas.  I don’t think anyone really has leverage over Russia, and barring a major setback, Russia only seems to be willing to engage in a cease fire on its own terms.

BC

I absolutely agree with your statement that nobody has leverage over Russia and that Russia will accept a cease-fire only if the get their maximalist terms. In Gaza, the administration had significant leverage over Israel. Israel was the stronger party and that leverage was necessary to get a cease-fire done. However, the administration's leverage was/is not absolute. There are things Israel will not agree to, period. Ukraine is the weaker party in their conflict. The US has leverage over Ukraine, but that leverage is also not absolute. The US can force concessions by Ukraine, but IMO they can't force concessions that will satisfy Russia's maximalist requirements. Even if they do, Russia will just add new requirements.
 
The real question IMO is "What will the administration do when this latest cease-fire attempt fails?". I have no idea. Will they just wash their hands of the whole effort and stop any aid to Ukraine, or will they "get mad" and increase the sanctions and aid? Another possibility is that they do nothing and leave everything as it currently is. We shall see.

[Goose]

https://www.wsj.com/world/russia-ukraine...?st=Xv3cup

A little bit of a breakdown of how the plan came to be.  Whether it was an “American” or “Russian” plan, it certainly had a lot of Russian influence.

I think this administration wants to get a peace deal done, but doesn’t care much about the details. While I am not particularly sympathetic to the administration, and given prior Russian actions I don’t really trust a “peace deal” with Russia, there is something to be said to getting the fighting stopped, and then worrying about how you get the fighting not to start again.  That seems to be what the administration did with the Gaza war.  The difference between the Gaza war and the war in Ukraine is that the US had leverage over Israel and was willing to use it, and had Middle Eastern allies who had leverage over Hamas.  I don’t think anyone really has leverage over Russia, and barring a major setback, Russia only seems to be willing to engage in a cease fire on its own terms.

BC

I absolutely agree with your statement that nobody has leverage over Russia and that Russia will accept a cease-fire only if the get their maximalist terms. In Gaza, the administration had significant leverage over Israel. Israel was the stronger party and that leverage was necessary to get a cease-fire done. However, the administration's leverage was/is not absolute. There are things Israel will not agree to, period. Ukraine is the weaker party in their conflict. The US has leverage over Ukraine, but that leverage is also not absolute. The US can force concessions by Ukraine, but IMO they can't force concessions that will satisfy Russia's maximalist requirements. Even if they do, Russia will just add new requirements.
 
The real question IMO is "What will the administration do when this latest cease-fire attempt fails?". I have no idea. Will they just wash their hands of the whole effort and stop any aid to Ukraine, or will they "get mad" and increase the sanctions and aid? Another possibility is that they do nothing and leave everything as it currently is. We shall see.