https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/ukra...30573.html
While IMO it is probable that SOME of the reporting in this article is extrapolation the gist of it is accurate. IMO the president would like to go along with Vance et. al, but so far has not. Both international and domestic political considerations oppose abandoning Ukraine, although they don't show a way to "victory" either. Unfortunately the argument that Ukraine is presently "losing" is all too accurate. https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/russ...01714.html
The concept that Ukraine could "win" an infantry war where 90% of the casualties were inflicted by drones always was a fantasy. It was temporarily possible to achieve a stalemate, but without an offense that can allow its "leg" infantry to advance, Ukraine was always in a precarious position. It needed to achieve its war aims "some other way". Russia could afford the casualties while they inflicted attrition on Ukraine. Russia has now found a way its infantry can advance faster by using bad weather. Ukraine just doesn't have the manpower to meet that "straight up". Of course, Russian "victory" will still take time and blood.
The immediate question is will the administration throw Ukraine under the bus. If they do, Ukraine will IMO not resist much longer. The troops will decide victory is impossible, getting killed in a lost cause is stupid, and the desertion option will be widely chosen. Ukraine already has a problem with desertion. Once units start falling apart, the process often accelerates rapidly as the odds of survival go down due to lack of troops and increasing disorganization.
EDIT: https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/no-o...52647.html
What the troops think. Not good.
Hopefully the administration will not abandon Ukraine. I still have no idea what the president intends to do. I am concerned he has no idea either and might act impulsively. From the Ukrainian point of view, these repeated forays into Russian dictated cease-fire terms are terrifying. Things are difficult enough without the fear that at any time the US might simply decide to quit. No matter how many times the administration steps back from the brink, Ukraine can't be sure the next one will end that way. It is difficult to maintain morale under such circumstances. That by itself may make defeat a self-fulfilling prophecy.
While IMO it is probable that SOME of the reporting in this article is extrapolation the gist of it is accurate. IMO the president would like to go along with Vance et. al, but so far has not. Both international and domestic political considerations oppose abandoning Ukraine, although they don't show a way to "victory" either. Unfortunately the argument that Ukraine is presently "losing" is all too accurate. https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/russ...01714.html
The concept that Ukraine could "win" an infantry war where 90% of the casualties were inflicted by drones always was a fantasy. It was temporarily possible to achieve a stalemate, but without an offense that can allow its "leg" infantry to advance, Ukraine was always in a precarious position. It needed to achieve its war aims "some other way". Russia could afford the casualties while they inflicted attrition on Ukraine. Russia has now found a way its infantry can advance faster by using bad weather. Ukraine just doesn't have the manpower to meet that "straight up". Of course, Russian "victory" will still take time and blood.
The immediate question is will the administration throw Ukraine under the bus. If they do, Ukraine will IMO not resist much longer. The troops will decide victory is impossible, getting killed in a lost cause is stupid, and the desertion option will be widely chosen. Ukraine already has a problem with desertion. Once units start falling apart, the process often accelerates rapidly as the odds of survival go down due to lack of troops and increasing disorganization.
EDIT: https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/no-o...52647.html
What the troops think. Not good.
Hopefully the administration will not abandon Ukraine. I still have no idea what the president intends to do. I am concerned he has no idea either and might act impulsively. From the Ukrainian point of view, these repeated forays into Russian dictated cease-fire terms are terrifying. Things are difficult enough without the fear that at any time the US might simply decide to quit. No matter how many times the administration steps back from the brink, Ukraine can't be sure the next one will end that way. It is difficult to maintain morale under such circumstances. That by itself may make defeat a self-fulfilling prophecy.