Interestingly, and related to the sour discussions currently happening on the board, Tennessee had the #2 ESPN 2025 recruiting class (5 players) and their freshman are having some early season struggles. Their top recruit, ESPN #9 Mia Pauldo, is playing a lot (starting 4/7 games) but shooting a ghastly 32% from the field. Here's a stats comparison for the freshman classes, with positives in red, and negatives in black.*
Tennessee
Mia Pauldo, ESPN #9: 7 Games Played, 20.7 MPG, 6.9 PPG, 32.0 FG%, 28.6 3-pt%, 2.4 RPG, 12 assists, 7 turnovers
Deniya Prawl, ESPN #17: 7 Games Played, 17.1 MPG, 4.6 PPG, 38.9 FG%, 14.3 3-pt%, 3.1 RPG, 5 assists, 8 turnovers
Jaida Civil, ESPN #20: 7 Games Played, 16.7 MPG, 6.4 PPG, 61.5 FG%, 57.1 3-pt%, 3.4 RPG, 12 assists , 11 turnovers
Lauren Hurst, ESPN #45: 3 Games Played, 8.0 MPG, 1.7 PPG, 28.6 FG%, 16.7 3-pt%, 1.3 RPG, 2 assists, 0 turnovers
Mya Pauldo, ESPN #57: 6 Games Played, 11.0 MPG, 2.8 PPG, 40.0 FG%, 10.0 3-pt%, 2.3 RPG, 8 assists, 5 turnovers
Stanford
Hailee Swain, ESPN #8: 9 Games Played, 23.9 MPG, 8.7 PPG, 38.0% FG%, 10.0% 3-pt%, 1.9 RPG, 15 assists, 21 turnovers
Lara Somfai, ESPN #12: 9 Games Played, 21.2 MPG, 10.8 PPG, 43.0% FG%, 20.0% 3-pt%, 8.9 RPG, 9 assists, 18 turnovers
Alex Eschmeyer, ESPN #21: 9 Games Played, 12.0 MPG, 4.3 PPG, 48.5% FG%, 40.0% 3-pt%, 3.9 RPG, 4 assists, 8 turnovers
Nora Ezike, ESPN #85: 2 Games Played, 4.4 MPG, 1.5 PPG, 0.0% FG%, 0.0% 3-pt%, 0.5 RPG, 0 assists, 0 turnovers
Carly Amborn, ESPN NR: 6 Games Played, 4.5 MPG, 4.3 PPG, 100% FG%, 100% 3-pt%, 0.7 RPG, 3 assists, 1 turnover
Also of note: Somfai with 9 blocks, Eschmeyer with 8. How I wish I could easily insert tables from excel...
The stats above are a good reminder that even highly ranked first-year players require adjustment and time in practice to learn the system regardless of what system it is. It is a genuinely rare freshman who hits the floor ready and able to play at the level that merits both starting and perhaps getting to be in the closing lineup. Somfai is earning it, even if we wince at her assist to turnover ratio.
The arguments on the board really boil down to whether players (Eschmeyer in particular but also Swain) should do more on the job learning in games (presumably at the expense of minutes for Lepolo and Stevenson.) But, why the Lepolo hating, particularly so far this season? She really should get credit for doing the things that people on the board wanted her to do, i.e. shoot more, shoot better. In her 2023-24 sophomore season (which is the best look back since she only played 5 games last year), she shot 37% from the field, 37.2% from 3-pt for eFG% of .490, 4.8 PPG, and 139 assists in 30 MPG. Through 9 games this season, Lepolo is shooting 54.5% from the field, 47.4% from 3-pt (9-19), for eFG% of .682 which is ridiculously good**. Sure, I'd love to see her score more, but she's been very efficient so far this season and her shooting is credible enough to avoid defenders sagging as much as they did two years ago. I also think her knee must be feeling a ton better. A small criticism is that her assists to turnovers doesn't look as good, but remember that she isn't getting easy assists by throwing the ball to Brink or Iriafen. I think we all forgot that we never got to see the "junior improvement" thing from Lepolo since junior year was a write-off for her. Yes, she's not Wiggins, and Swain is clearly the future. But Swain has to work on getting the game to slow down, and not turning the ball over so much. Swain is 15 assists to 21 turnovers. That needs to improve. My guess is that she's been scouted now, and defenders are taking away the first step to the outside, and when she reverses, she's less confident.
I totally understand how people see Eschmeyer's upside and want to get her minutes since she's taller than Stevenson, more athletic, longer, can space the floor with her shooting, and has flashed some great low post moves. Think of Stevenson as our Kevon Looney. She sets screens, understands her responsibilities at the elbow, and defends and rebounds really hard. So, she gets minutes. Nevertheless, the argument for the need for more scoring from the 4/5 is compelling. I think it is a reasonable thing to observe that Eschmeyer needs to stop making rookie mistakes like fouling, turnovers, and improve some of her defensive positioning. And her decision making at the elbow is understandably a work in progress. So, we're playing Looney, even though we would all prefer a tall athletic center with hops and the ability to score down low. Trust me, this is going to work out so much better than James Wiseman. And honestly, isn't it helpful that Eschmeyer's parents are both serious hoopers? I'm going to guess that they understand basketball meritocracy in a more old-school sense. Eschmeyer's gonna earn her minutes.
(Can we also give kudos to Courtney Ogden? 58.3% from the field, 36.4% from 3-pt. She's showing off some great finishing this season. Still turning over the ball a little too much, but she's bringing value, so she's getting to stay on the floor.)
Two cents on the "this offense sucks" debate. We're not running the traditional Princeton. This is closer to the Warriors split action system, with the Princeton initiations to the elbow. We're clearly having some problems running the split action and getting the ball inside. Part of this is honestly what you'd expect when you're starting two freshman. The split action doesn't really work until the players on the floor can vibe with each other on reactions, i.e. who is cutting, who is screening, etc. That is just going to take time to mature. But the big problem right now is the poor outside shooting that is allowing teams to sag which messes up the cutting and the low post entry. Amborn might end up as the savior, although I'm having a woofing gods moment even typing this. If her shooting is really actually even within a standard deviation of this good, then teams have to press her and she'll get the Jump treatment. That ought to really clear out space in the key. I'm not down on the offense, and I like structured offenses, but if Paye wants to make changes, I support her running the offense this season to see if her youngsters can grow into it. One of the things that Tara VanDerveer said in her class last year is that they scripted every single minute of practice time because there was so much to teach and so little practice time. So, the idea that you can junk your offense mid-season and expect to run a new offense is in practical terms not a realistic expectation. I expect that Paye will be making adjustments; we'll really know a lot more after the Tennessee, Oregon, Washington, and Cal games.
I think we should have realistic goals based on what we have, not what we wish we have. Realistic goals might be something like finishing .500 or better in the ACC, advancing at least one round in the conference tournament, and getting a meh seed entry to the NCAA tournament. My guess for what it's worth is Kate Paye gets a long runway as long as the team shows improvement. She took over 'not the team she was expecting,' playing not in the league she was expecting, and having to suddenly play in the ACC with only a couple of players capable of playing 4/5. That was a painful experience, probably for her as much as it was for us. But this year's team is just more talented, and the juniors look like they are better too. I recommend patience. I actually see improvement, good attitude, and a really strong desire to win in this group. This doesn't mean they'll win 32 games, but it means that I expect to see competitiveness most of the time. Can't help it if we lay a stinker a few times as this group learns how to win.
Things to watch out for include whether we can land another big for '27. I'm disappointed but less stressed about what happened for '26. Prospects can look at that roster and imagine that next year, Agara, Eschmeyer, and Somfai suck up all of the 4/5 minutes. And we'll still have Looney.
I personally fall into the camp of why moan so much about things that aren't changing this season. We're not suddenly going to pivot to run and shoot. Let's enjoy watching a young team develop. I am.
* Eschmeyer's assists aren't bad but the 2 to 1 turnover to assist ratio is something to pay attention to. 2 to 1 generally doesn't get you minutes on a Stanford team.
**As an aside, I don't think Tony Giavacchini is a great comp for Lepolo. His career shooting % was 32%, including 29.3% from 3-pt, and in his only starting season, he had 73 assists to 48 turnovers and 18 steals. Mitch Johnson is a much better comp, career 38.8% shooting, 34.9% from 3-pt, career totals of 534 assists to 282 turnovers and 121 steals. But I think Milena Flores is an even better direct comp. She had a good handle but wasn't flashy and made her mark as a distributor. (She also had the misfortune of following Jamila Wideman.) Flores was a career 42.8% shooter, 32.9% from 3-pt, and career 5.2 assists to 2.8 turnovers and eFG% 49.6. I don't expect Lepolo's shooting % to stay this high as we get into the difficult part of the season, but she's showing she can hit open shots, and that's all we really need her to do.
Tennessee
Mia Pauldo, ESPN #9: 7 Games Played, 20.7 MPG, 6.9 PPG, 32.0 FG%, 28.6 3-pt%, 2.4 RPG, 12 assists, 7 turnovers
Deniya Prawl, ESPN #17: 7 Games Played, 17.1 MPG, 4.6 PPG, 38.9 FG%, 14.3 3-pt%, 3.1 RPG, 5 assists, 8 turnovers
Jaida Civil, ESPN #20: 7 Games Played, 16.7 MPG, 6.4 PPG, 61.5 FG%, 57.1 3-pt%, 3.4 RPG, 12 assists , 11 turnovers
Lauren Hurst, ESPN #45: 3 Games Played, 8.0 MPG, 1.7 PPG, 28.6 FG%, 16.7 3-pt%, 1.3 RPG, 2 assists, 0 turnovers
Mya Pauldo, ESPN #57: 6 Games Played, 11.0 MPG, 2.8 PPG, 40.0 FG%, 10.0 3-pt%, 2.3 RPG, 8 assists, 5 turnovers
Stanford
Hailee Swain, ESPN #8: 9 Games Played, 23.9 MPG, 8.7 PPG, 38.0% FG%, 10.0% 3-pt%, 1.9 RPG, 15 assists, 21 turnovers
Lara Somfai, ESPN #12: 9 Games Played, 21.2 MPG, 10.8 PPG, 43.0% FG%, 20.0% 3-pt%, 8.9 RPG, 9 assists, 18 turnovers
Alex Eschmeyer, ESPN #21: 9 Games Played, 12.0 MPG, 4.3 PPG, 48.5% FG%, 40.0% 3-pt%, 3.9 RPG, 4 assists, 8 turnovers
Nora Ezike, ESPN #85: 2 Games Played, 4.4 MPG, 1.5 PPG, 0.0% FG%, 0.0% 3-pt%, 0.5 RPG, 0 assists, 0 turnovers
Carly Amborn, ESPN NR: 6 Games Played, 4.5 MPG, 4.3 PPG, 100% FG%, 100% 3-pt%, 0.7 RPG, 3 assists, 1 turnover
Also of note: Somfai with 9 blocks, Eschmeyer with 8. How I wish I could easily insert tables from excel...
The stats above are a good reminder that even highly ranked first-year players require adjustment and time in practice to learn the system regardless of what system it is. It is a genuinely rare freshman who hits the floor ready and able to play at the level that merits both starting and perhaps getting to be in the closing lineup. Somfai is earning it, even if we wince at her assist to turnover ratio.
The arguments on the board really boil down to whether players (Eschmeyer in particular but also Swain) should do more on the job learning in games (presumably at the expense of minutes for Lepolo and Stevenson.) But, why the Lepolo hating, particularly so far this season? She really should get credit for doing the things that people on the board wanted her to do, i.e. shoot more, shoot better. In her 2023-24 sophomore season (which is the best look back since she only played 5 games last year), she shot 37% from the field, 37.2% from 3-pt for eFG% of .490, 4.8 PPG, and 139 assists in 30 MPG. Through 9 games this season, Lepolo is shooting 54.5% from the field, 47.4% from 3-pt (9-19), for eFG% of .682 which is ridiculously good**. Sure, I'd love to see her score more, but she's been very efficient so far this season and her shooting is credible enough to avoid defenders sagging as much as they did two years ago. I also think her knee must be feeling a ton better. A small criticism is that her assists to turnovers doesn't look as good, but remember that she isn't getting easy assists by throwing the ball to Brink or Iriafen. I think we all forgot that we never got to see the "junior improvement" thing from Lepolo since junior year was a write-off for her. Yes, she's not Wiggins, and Swain is clearly the future. But Swain has to work on getting the game to slow down, and not turning the ball over so much. Swain is 15 assists to 21 turnovers. That needs to improve. My guess is that she's been scouted now, and defenders are taking away the first step to the outside, and when she reverses, she's less confident.
I totally understand how people see Eschmeyer's upside and want to get her minutes since she's taller than Stevenson, more athletic, longer, can space the floor with her shooting, and has flashed some great low post moves. Think of Stevenson as our Kevon Looney. She sets screens, understands her responsibilities at the elbow, and defends and rebounds really hard. So, she gets minutes. Nevertheless, the argument for the need for more scoring from the 4/5 is compelling. I think it is a reasonable thing to observe that Eschmeyer needs to stop making rookie mistakes like fouling, turnovers, and improve some of her defensive positioning. And her decision making at the elbow is understandably a work in progress. So, we're playing Looney, even though we would all prefer a tall athletic center with hops and the ability to score down low. Trust me, this is going to work out so much better than James Wiseman. And honestly, isn't it helpful that Eschmeyer's parents are both serious hoopers? I'm going to guess that they understand basketball meritocracy in a more old-school sense. Eschmeyer's gonna earn her minutes.
(Can we also give kudos to Courtney Ogden? 58.3% from the field, 36.4% from 3-pt. She's showing off some great finishing this season. Still turning over the ball a little too much, but she's bringing value, so she's getting to stay on the floor.)
Two cents on the "this offense sucks" debate. We're not running the traditional Princeton. This is closer to the Warriors split action system, with the Princeton initiations to the elbow. We're clearly having some problems running the split action and getting the ball inside. Part of this is honestly what you'd expect when you're starting two freshman. The split action doesn't really work until the players on the floor can vibe with each other on reactions, i.e. who is cutting, who is screening, etc. That is just going to take time to mature. But the big problem right now is the poor outside shooting that is allowing teams to sag which messes up the cutting and the low post entry. Amborn might end up as the savior, although I'm having a woofing gods moment even typing this. If her shooting is really actually even within a standard deviation of this good, then teams have to press her and she'll get the Jump treatment. That ought to really clear out space in the key. I'm not down on the offense, and I like structured offenses, but if Paye wants to make changes, I support her running the offense this season to see if her youngsters can grow into it. One of the things that Tara VanDerveer said in her class last year is that they scripted every single minute of practice time because there was so much to teach and so little practice time. So, the idea that you can junk your offense mid-season and expect to run a new offense is in practical terms not a realistic expectation. I expect that Paye will be making adjustments; we'll really know a lot more after the Tennessee, Oregon, Washington, and Cal games.
I think we should have realistic goals based on what we have, not what we wish we have. Realistic goals might be something like finishing .500 or better in the ACC, advancing at least one round in the conference tournament, and getting a meh seed entry to the NCAA tournament. My guess for what it's worth is Kate Paye gets a long runway as long as the team shows improvement. She took over 'not the team she was expecting,' playing not in the league she was expecting, and having to suddenly play in the ACC with only a couple of players capable of playing 4/5. That was a painful experience, probably for her as much as it was for us. But this year's team is just more talented, and the juniors look like they are better too. I recommend patience. I actually see improvement, good attitude, and a really strong desire to win in this group. This doesn't mean they'll win 32 games, but it means that I expect to see competitiveness most of the time. Can't help it if we lay a stinker a few times as this group learns how to win.
Things to watch out for include whether we can land another big for '27. I'm disappointed but less stressed about what happened for '26. Prospects can look at that roster and imagine that next year, Agara, Eschmeyer, and Somfai suck up all of the 4/5 minutes. And we'll still have Looney.
I personally fall into the camp of why moan so much about things that aren't changing this season. We're not suddenly going to pivot to run and shoot. Let's enjoy watching a young team develop. I am.
* Eschmeyer's assists aren't bad but the 2 to 1 turnover to assist ratio is something to pay attention to. 2 to 1 generally doesn't get you minutes on a Stanford team.
**As an aside, I don't think Tony Giavacchini is a great comp for Lepolo. His career shooting % was 32%, including 29.3% from 3-pt, and in his only starting season, he had 73 assists to 48 turnovers and 18 steals. Mitch Johnson is a much better comp, career 38.8% shooting, 34.9% from 3-pt, career totals of 534 assists to 282 turnovers and 121 steals. But I think Milena Flores is an even better direct comp. She had a good handle but wasn't flashy and made her mark as a distributor. (She also had the misfortune of following Jamila Wideman.) Flores was a career 42.8% shooter, 32.9% from 3-pt, and career 5.2 assists to 2.8 turnovers and eFG% 49.6. I don't expect Lepolo's shooting % to stay this high as we get into the difficult part of the season, but she's showing she can hit open shots, and that's all we really need her to do.