[BillBradley]

Interestingly, and related to the sour discussions currently happening on the board, Tennessee had the #2 ESPN 2025 recruiting class (5 players) and their freshman are having some early season struggles. Their top recruit, ESPN #9 Mia Pauldo, is playing a lot (starting 4/7 games) but shooting a ghastly 32% from the field. Here's a stats comparison for the freshman classes, with positives in red, and negatives in black.*

Tennessee

Mia Pauldo, ESPN #9:      7 Games Played, 20.7 MPG, 6.9 PPG, 32.0 FG%, 28.6 3-pt%, 2.4 RPG, 12 assists, 7 turnovers
Deniya Prawl, ESPN #17: 7 Games Played, 17.1 MPG, 4.6 PPG, 38.9 FG%, 14.3 3-pt%, 3.1 RPG, 5 assists, 8 turnovers
Jaida Civil, ESPN #20:     7 Games Played, 16.7 MPG, 6.4 PPG, 61.5 FG%,   57.1 3-pt%, 3.4 RPG, 12 assists , 11 turnovers
Lauren Hurst, ESPN #45: 3 Games Played,  8.0 MPG, 1.7 PPG, 28.6 FG%, 16.7 3-pt%, 1.3 RPG, 2 assists, 0 turnovers
Mya Pauldo, ESPN #57:     6 Games Played, 11.0 MPG, 2.8 PPG, 40.0 FG%,  10.0 3-pt%, 2.3 RPG, 8 assists, 5 turnovers

Stanford

Hailee Swain, ESPN #8:       9 Games Played, 23.9 MPG,  8.7 PPG, 38.0% FG%, 10.0% 3-pt%, 1.9 RPG, 15 assists, 21 turnovers
Lara Somfai, ESPN #12:      9 Games Played, 21.2 MPG, 10.8 PPG, 43.0% FG%, 20.0% 3-pt%, 8.9 RPG, 9 assists, 18 turnovers
Alex Eschmeyer, ESPN #21: 9 Games Played, 12.0 MPG,  4.3 PPG, 48.5% FG%, 40.0% 3-pt%, 3.9 RPG, 4 assists, 8 turnovers
Nora Ezike, ESPN #85:        2 Games Played,  4.4 MPG,   1.5 PPG,  0.0% FG%,   0.0% 3-pt%, 0.5 RPG, 0 assists, 0 turnovers
Carly Amborn, ESPN NR:     6 Games Played,  4.5 MPG,   4.3 PPG,  100% FG%,  100% 3-pt%, 0.7 RPG, 3 assists, 1 turnover

Also of note: Somfai with 9 blocks, Eschmeyer with 8. How I wish I could easily insert tables from excel...

The stats above are a good reminder that even highly ranked first-year players require adjustment and time in practice to learn the system regardless of what system it is. It is a genuinely rare freshman who hits the floor ready and able to play at the level that merits both starting and perhaps getting to be in the closing lineup. Somfai is earning it, even if we wince at her assist to turnover ratio.

The arguments on the board really boil down to whether players (Eschmeyer in particular but also Swain) should do more on the job learning in games (presumably at the expense of minutes for Lepolo and Stevenson.) But, why the Lepolo hating, particularly so far this season? She really should get credit for doing the things that people on the board wanted her to do, i.e. shoot more, shoot better. In her 2023-24 sophomore season (which is the best look back since she only played 5 games last year), she shot 37% from the field, 37.2% from 3-pt for eFG% of .490, 4.8 PPG, and 139 assists in 30 MPG. Through 9 games this season, Lepolo is shooting 54.5% from the field, 47.4% from 3-pt (9-19), for eFG% of .682 which is ridiculously good**. Sure, I'd love to see her score more, but she's been very efficient so far this season and her shooting is credible enough to avoid defenders sagging as much as they did two years ago. I also think her knee must be feeling a ton better. A small criticism is that her assists to turnovers doesn't look as good, but remember that she isn't getting easy assists by throwing the ball to Brink or Iriafen. I think we all forgot that we never got to see the "junior improvement" thing from Lepolo since junior year was a write-off for her. Yes, she's not Wiggins, and Swain is clearly the future. But Swain has to work on getting the game to slow down, and not turning the ball over so much. Swain is 15 assists to 21 turnovers. That needs to improve. My guess is that she's been scouted now, and defenders are taking away the first step to the outside, and when she reverses, she's less confident. 

I totally understand how people see Eschmeyer's upside and want to get her minutes since she's taller than Stevenson, more athletic, longer, can space the floor with her shooting, and has flashed some great low post moves. Think of Stevenson as our Kevon Looney. She sets screens, understands her responsibilities at the elbow, and defends and rebounds really hard. So, she gets minutes. Nevertheless, the argument for the need for more scoring from the 4/5 is compelling. I think it is a reasonable thing to observe that Eschmeyer needs to stop making rookie mistakes like fouling, turnovers, and improve some of her defensive positioning. And her decision making at the elbow is understandably a work in progress. So, we're playing Looney, even though we would all prefer a tall athletic center with hops and the ability to score down low. Trust me, this is going to work out so much better than James Wiseman. And honestly, isn't it helpful that Eschmeyer's parents are both serious hoopers? I'm going to guess that they understand basketball meritocracy in a more old-school sense. Eschmeyer's gonna earn her minutes.

(Can we also give kudos to Courtney Ogden? 58.3% from the field, 36.4% from 3-pt. She's showing off some great finishing this season. Still turning over the ball a little too much, but she's bringing value, so she's getting to stay on the floor.)

Two cents on the "this offense sucks" debate. We're not running the traditional Princeton. This is closer to the Warriors split action system, with the Princeton initiations to the elbow. We're clearly having some problems running the split action and getting the ball inside. Part of this is honestly what you'd expect when you're starting two freshman. The split action doesn't really work until the players on the floor can vibe with each other on reactions, i.e. who is cutting, who is screening, etc. That is just going to take time to mature. But the big problem right now is the poor outside shooting that is allowing teams to sag which messes up the cutting and the low post entry. Amborn might end up as the savior, although I'm having a woofing gods moment even typing this. If her shooting is really actually even within a standard deviation of this good, then teams have to press her and she'll get the Jump treatment. That ought to really clear out space in the key. I'm not down on the offense, and I like structured offenses, but if Paye wants to make changes, I support her running the offense this season to see if her youngsters can grow into it. One of the things that Tara VanDerveer said in her class last year is that they scripted every single minute of practice time because there was so much to teach and so little practice time. So, the idea that you can junk your offense mid-season and expect to run a new offense is in practical terms not a realistic expectation. I expect that Paye will be making adjustments; we'll really know a lot more after the Tennessee, Oregon, Washington, and Cal games. 

Really great post, and I agree with most everything. (Sorry, I had to trim your post given the board's character limit restriction.) A few thoughts/reactions:
- On the offense - 100% agree. I like the split action and I think it's going to come together. Also agree, I wouldn't try to install something new midseason. However, I do think the players need to be way crisper when running the offense. They stand too much, the ball stops, and they don't cut hard enough. I do blame the coaches for allowing this. Especially in this day and age, you can't be slow and predictable. Keep the offense but run it better. And a little faster pace in transition wouldn't hurt. 
- On expectations - Differ a lot here. Not sure how others feel, but I think a .500 season would be a disappointment. I think this team has enough talent to be in the upper tier of the ACC by the end of the season and make the tourney. I think that is a realistic goal and I don't think we will get there with Lepolo and Stephenson playing so much.  
_____________________

Putting this at the bottom. I too wish I had the time to insert a table!  The stats you posted on the Tennessee players are a bit misleading as they are averages. When you look at the game log details (from Sports Reference), I think this really shows what I and others are observing as the problem with Alex's PT. Here are the minutes played in each game, for the 3 top rated Tennessee freshmen (ratings similar to Alex). 

Pauldo (#9) - 28 (vs NC State), 13, 26, 27, 18, 16, 16 (vs UCLA). Started 4 games.
Prawl (#17) - 22 (vs NC State), 11, 12, 18, 22, 17, 19 (vs UCLA). Started 1 game.
Civil (#20) - 13 (vs NC State), 17, 27, 12, 17, 14, 17 (vs. UCLA). Started 4 games.

Eschmeyer (#21) - 21, 23, 14, 7 (WSU), 5 (Gonzaga), 16, 17, 6 (FGCU), 4 (CSU). Started 0 games. 

This clearly shows the difference. The Tennessee coach is giving her top freshmen talent consistent minutes, regardless of the caliber of opponent, and she's even starting them from time to time. It shows them that she has confidence in them and their ongoing development, and they aren't afraid to lose games early in exchange for on the court learning. KP is doing the same thing with Swain and Somfai, but not Alex. She is only playing Alex against the lowest level of competition. So even thought the averages are somewhat close, it's not really the same story.

[BillBradley]

Interestingly, and related to the sour discussions currently happening on the board, Tennessee had the #2 ESPN 2025 recruiting class (5 players) and their freshman are having some early season struggles. Their top recruit, ESPN #9 Mia Pauldo, is playing a lot (starting 4/7 games) but shooting a ghastly 32% from the field. Here's a stats comparison for the freshman classes, with positives in red, and negatives in black.*

Tennessee

Mia Pauldo, ESPN #9:      7 Games Played, 20.7 MPG, 6.9 PPG, 32.0 FG%, 28.6 3-pt%, 2.4 RPG, 12 assists, 7 turnovers
Deniya Prawl, ESPN #17: 7 Games Played, 17.1 MPG, 4.6 PPG, 38.9 FG%, 14.3 3-pt%, 3.1 RPG, 5 assists, 8 turnovers
Jaida Civil, ESPN #20:     7 Games Played, 16.7 MPG, 6.4 PPG, 61.5 FG%,   57.1 3-pt%, 3.4 RPG, 12 assists , 11 turnovers
Lauren Hurst, ESPN #45: 3 Games Played,  8.0 MPG, 1.7 PPG, 28.6 FG%, 16.7 3-pt%, 1.3 RPG, 2 assists, 0 turnovers
Mya Pauldo, ESPN #57:     6 Games Played, 11.0 MPG, 2.8 PPG, 40.0 FG%,  10.0 3-pt%, 2.3 RPG, 8 assists, 5 turnovers

Stanford

Hailee Swain, ESPN #8:       9 Games Played, 23.9 MPG,  8.7 PPG, 38.0% FG%, 10.0% 3-pt%, 1.9 RPG, 15 assists, 21 turnovers
Lara Somfai, ESPN #12:      9 Games Played, 21.2 MPG, 10.8 PPG, 43.0% FG%, 20.0% 3-pt%, 8.9 RPG, 9 assists, 18 turnovers
Alex Eschmeyer, ESPN #21: 9 Games Played, 12.0 MPG,  4.3 PPG, 48.5% FG%, 40.0% 3-pt%, 3.9 RPG, 4 assists, 8 turnovers
Nora Ezike, ESPN #85:        2 Games Played,  4.4 MPG,   1.5 PPG,  0.0% FG%,   0.0% 3-pt%, 0.5 RPG, 0 assists, 0 turnovers
Carly Amborn, ESPN NR:     6 Games Played,  4.5 MPG,   4.3 PPG,  100% FG%,  100% 3-pt%, 0.7 RPG, 3 assists, 1 turnover

Also of note: Somfai with 9 blocks, Eschmeyer with 8. How I wish I could easily insert tables from excel...

The stats above are a good reminder that even highly ranked first-year players require adjustment and time in practice to learn the system regardless of what system it is. It is a genuinely rare freshman who hits the floor ready and able to play at the level that merits both starting and perhaps getting to be in the closing lineup. Somfai is earning it, even if we wince at her assist to turnover ratio.

The arguments on the board really boil down to whether players (Eschmeyer in particular but also Swain) should do more on the job learning in games (presumably at the expense of minutes for Lepolo and Stevenson.) But, why the Lepolo hating, particularly so far this season? She really should get credit for doing the things that people on the board wanted her to do, i.e. shoot more, shoot better. In her 2023-24 sophomore season (which is the best look back since she only played 5 games last year), she shot 37% from the field, 37.2% from 3-pt for eFG% of .490, 4.8 PPG, and 139 assists in 30 MPG. Through 9 games this season, Lepolo is shooting 54.5% from the field, 47.4% from 3-pt (9-19), for eFG% of .682 which is ridiculously good**. Sure, I'd love to see her score more, but she's been very efficient so far this season and her shooting is credible enough to avoid defenders sagging as much as they did two years ago. I also think her knee must be feeling a ton better. A small criticism is that her assists to turnovers doesn't look as good, but remember that she isn't getting easy assists by throwing the ball to Brink or Iriafen. I think we all forgot that we never got to see the "junior improvement" thing from Lepolo since junior year was a write-off for her. Yes, she's not Wiggins, and Swain is clearly the future. But Swain has to work on getting the game to slow down, and not turning the ball over so much. Swain is 15 assists to 21 turnovers. That needs to improve. My guess is that she's been scouted now, and defenders are taking away the first step to the outside, and when she reverses, she's less confident. 

I totally understand how people see Eschmeyer's upside and want to get her minutes since she's taller than Stevenson, more athletic, longer, can space the floor with her shooting, and has flashed some great low post moves. Think of Stevenson as our Kevon Looney. She sets screens, understands her responsibilities at the elbow, and defends and rebounds really hard. So, she gets minutes. Nevertheless, the argument for the need for more scoring from the 4/5 is compelling. I think it is a reasonable thing to observe that Eschmeyer needs to stop making rookie mistakes like fouling, turnovers, and improve some of her defensive positioning. And her decision making at the elbow is understandably a work in progress. So, we're playing Looney, even though we would all prefer a tall athletic center with hops and the ability to score down low. Trust me, this is going to work out so much better than James Wiseman. And honestly, isn't it helpful that Eschmeyer's parents are both serious hoopers? I'm going to guess that they understand basketball meritocracy in a more old-school sense. Eschmeyer's gonna earn her minutes.

(Can we also give kudos to Courtney Ogden? 58.3% from the field, 36.4% from 3-pt. She's showing off some great finishing this season. Still turning over the ball a little too much, but she's bringing value, so she's getting to stay on the floor.)

Two cents on the "this offense sucks" debate. We're not running the traditional Princeton. This is closer to the Warriors split action system, with the Princeton initiations to the elbow. We're clearly having some problems running the split action and getting the ball inside. Part of this is honestly what you'd expect when you're starting two freshman. The split action doesn't really work until the players on the floor can vibe with each other on reactions, i.e. who is cutting, who is screening, etc. That is just going to take time to mature. But the big problem right now is the poor outside shooting that is allowing teams to sag which messes up the cutting and the low post entry. Amborn might end up as the savior, although I'm having a woofing gods moment even typing this. If her shooting is really actually even within a standard deviation of this good, then teams have to press her and she'll get the Jump treatment. That ought to really clear out space in the key. I'm not down on the offense, and I like structured offenses, but if Paye wants to make changes, I support her running the offense this season to see if her youngsters can grow into it. One of the things that Tara VanDerveer said in her class last year is that they scripted every single minute of practice time because there was so much to teach and so little practice time. So, the idea that you can junk your offense mid-season and expect to run a new offense is in practical terms not a realistic expectation. I expect that Paye will be making adjustments; we'll really know a lot more after the Tennessee, Oregon, Washington, and Cal games. 

Really great post, and I agree with most everything. (Sorry, I had to trim your post given the board's character limit restriction.) A few thoughts/reactions:
- On the offense - 100% agree. I like the split action and I think it's going to come together. Also agree, I wouldn't try to install something new midseason. However, I do think the players need to be way crisper when running the offense. They stand too much, the ball stops, and they don't cut hard enough. I do blame the coaches for allowing this. Especially in this day and age, you can't be slow and predictable. Keep the offense but run it better. And a little faster pace in transition wouldn't hurt. 
- On expectations - Differ a lot here. Not sure how others feel, but I think a .500 season would be a disappointment. I think this team has enough talent to be in the upper tier of the ACC by the end of the season and make the tourney. I think that is a realistic goal and I don't think we will get there with Lepolo and Stephenson playing so much.  
_____________________

Putting this at the bottom. I too wish I had the time to insert a table!  The stats you posted on the Tennessee players are a bit misleading as they are averages. When you look at the game log details (from Sports Reference), I think this really shows what I and others are observing as the problem with Alex's PT. Here are the minutes played in each game, for the 3 top rated Tennessee freshmen (ratings similar to Alex). 

Pauldo (#9) - 28 (vs NC State), 13, 26, 27, 18, 16, 16 (vs UCLA). Started 4 games.
Prawl (#17) - 22 (vs NC State), 11, 12, 18, 22, 17, 19 (vs UCLA). Started 1 game.
Civil (#20) - 13 (vs NC State), 17, 27, 12, 17, 14, 17 (vs. UCLA). Started 4 games.

Eschmeyer (#21) - 21, 23, 14, 7 (WSU), 5 (Gonzaga), 16, 17, 6 (FGCU), 4 (CSU). Started 0 games. 

This clearly shows the difference. The Tennessee coach is giving her top freshmen talent consistent minutes, regardless of the caliber of opponent, and she's even starting them from time to time. It shows them that she has confidence in them and their ongoing development, and they aren't afraid to lose games early in exchange for on the court learning. KP is doing the same thing with Swain and Somfai, but not Alex. She is only playing Alex against the lowest level of competition. So even thought the averages are somewhat close, it's not really the same story.