12-06-2025, 02:29 PM
(This post was last modified: 12-06-2025, 06:08 PM by BillBradley.)
(12-05-2025, 04:56 PM)BostonCard Wrote: FYI, here is the current minute distribution (average per game), with the difference from your target in parentheses:Nice reply. Couple more thoughts:
Agara: 30.5 (-5.5)
Clardy: 30.4 (-3.6)
Lepolo: 27.9 (17.9)
Swain: 24.7 (- 7.3)
Somfai: 21.9 (-6.1)
Ogden: 20.9 (-7.1)
MAS: 17.3 (7.3)
Eschmeyer: 12.3 (-9.7)
Everyone else combined: 14.4 (+14.4)
A few comments. I think your target for Agara is too high. Forgetting the possibility of foul trouble, it was clear that the team was tired for the last few possessions. Agara played 39 minutes against Tennessee, and I think that was too much. In 23/24, Iriafen played 27 mpg and Brink played 25, partly limited by foul trouble. I think the low 30’s is probably optimum for Agara and Clardy.
You clearly believe that Lepolo should play much less. If Tennessee is any indication, that looks like the trend (17 minutes despite being a starter) is in that direction. I’m somewhere in between where you are and what she is currently getting. In a team where two starters are freshmen, having some senior leadership on the floor helps. Plus she is currently one of our best outside shooters. She is second only to Clardy in number of made 3’s, and second only to Amborn (who only has six attempts) in 3 pt shooting percentage. I disagree that Somfai should get more minutes. She is a freshman, and though her ceiling is high, she is already getting more minutes than Cameron Brink did as a sophomore. It takes time to get up to speed and to be effective, and there is a tendency to project a player’s potential onto their contribution.
On the other hand, Ogden is a veteran and has stepped up her game. I hope to slowly see her pick up more minutes, and somewhere in the mid-20’s sounds reasonable. As the year progresses, I hope that Eschmeyer will step up her game enough so that hers and MAS’ minutes are flipped (basically 5 more mpg for Eschmeyer, and 5 less for MAS), but I don’t think potential alone or fear of transfer is enough. There are some things she needs to work on.
Lastly, there’s no scope in your roster for the tail end of the bench. I’m not expecting them (which, BTW, includes Amborne) to get more than 10 minutes per game combined, but I hope we aren’t shortening our lineup to only 8 players.
BC
- I should have noted that these are my preferred minutes distribution in competitive games where the tail end of the bench won't play. For sure, they'll get on the court in blowouts.
- Amborn might find her way into this rotation. I just don't know enough yet to state an opinion. Seems like another shooter could really help.
- Many teams rarely sub for a top player. Nunu is our best player and she needs to stay on the court (in competitive games) every minute that she can. I think 36 minutes is totally doable, especially in games with a lot of whistles (and all the TV timeouts, quarter breaks, regular timeouts, halftime, etc. ). Tons of top players play that much for other teams. Agree that there might be games that are up and down with few whistles, and she could get winded.
- Re: Lepolo, I definitely agree with the points you make about senior leadership and shooting percentage. She does bring those things to the table. But there are always tradeoffs in putting in one player for another. Much of my opinion about Lepolo (and MAS) is based on our overall team strengths and weaknesses. IMO, we are a Top-20 defensive team, but we just don't have enough offensive output to win games against good teams using the lineups we are playing right now. Sure, we can score 98 against the Lehighs of the world so our average looks decent, but here's how much we've scored in our toughest games:
WSU - 54
Gonzaga - 65
FGCU - 62
CSU - 62
Tenn - 62
Regardless of pace of play and the possession count, that just doesn't get it done against better teams. Therefore, I conclude that we should make an adjustment. Instead of playing our least productive offensive players 45 minutes/game (Lepolo and MAS), take a bunch of those minutes and give them to players who are better at putting the ball in the hole. To me, that's a tradeoff that could have a major effect. I hope we'll see a shift over the next month.
- Cam was practically always limited by her fouling. FWIW, it never made much sense to me to have her end games with 3 fouls while she sat a bunch of the 1st Q because she picked up an early one. The difference was Tara had major post depth for most of Cam's years, so she could stick by that policy of subbing on every foul. I don't think the same should be applied to players like Alex, where her minutes are being limited by early fouls. My vote would be to be a little less stringent for Nunu, Somfai, and Alex.
