[BostonCard]

Four years ago, I would have discounted the possibility of China attacking Russia.  Now, with the mess Putin has made, who knows.

I think you can still discount it. At some point in the future China may want to "own" some of the resources in that Russian wilderness. However, they have lots of other fish to fry that requires their complete attention. Russian territory would be a side show that is a deviation from their current plans. There is always the possibility that an already weakened Bear may simply resort to nuclear weapons if conventionally attacked. No reason to risk that now. Russia isn't going to get stronger quickly, if at all. When the Chinese can fully claim the resources of the 9 dash line area they MAY consider going North next, but that is a long way from now.

Yeah, the nuclear weapons are a bit of a deterrent, aren't they.  Like, China could attack, and could probably occupy the territory, but from their perspective, is it worth the risk of triggering a nuclear response?  Russia fired a nuclear capable hypersonic missile at Ukraine; it could do that to a China at the onset of an attack as an unspoken warning... the next one could be nuclear armed (of course, would China, not knowing if the hypersonic missile headed in their direction has a nuclear payload wait for it to hit to find out?)

Bottom line, it's unlikely that the Chinese would attack Russia.

BC

[BostonCard]

Four years ago, I would have discounted the possibility of China attacking Russia.  Now, with the mess Putin has made, who knows.

I think you can still discount it. At some point in the future China may want to "own" some of the resources in that Russian wilderness. However, they have lots of other fish to fry that requires their complete attention. Russian territory would be a side show that is a deviation from their current plans. There is always the possibility that an already weakened Bear may simply resort to nuclear weapons if conventionally attacked. No reason to risk that now. Russia isn't going to get stronger quickly, if at all. When the Chinese can fully claim the resources of the 9 dash line area they MAY consider going North next, but that is a long way from now.

Yeah, the nuclear weapons are a bit of a deterrent, aren't they.  Like, China could attack, and could probably occupy the territory, but from their perspective, is it worth the risk of triggering a nuclear response?  Russia fired a nuclear capable hypersonic missile at Ukraine; it could do that to a China at the onset of an attack as an unspoken warning... the next one could be nuclear armed (of course, would China, not knowing if the hypersonic missile headed in their direction has a nuclear payload wait for it to hit to find out?)

Bottom line, it's unlikely that the Chinese would attack Russia.

BC