[Goose]

CSIS has an analysis of the war, which highlights the high cost (on both sides) for minimal territorial changes.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-gr...ar-ukraine

Despite claims of battlefield momentum in Ukraine, the data shows that Russia is paying an extraordinary price for minimal gains and is in decline as a major power. Since February 2022, Russian forces have suffered nearly 1.2 million casualties, more losses than any major power in any war since World War II. At current rates, combined Russian and Ukrainian casualties could reach 2 million by the spring of 2026. After seizing the initiative in 2024, Russian forces have advanced at an average rate of between 15 and 70 meters per day in their most prominent offensives, slower than almost any major offensive campaign in any war in the last century. Meanwhile, Russia’s war economy is under mounting strain, with manufacturing declining, slowing growth of 0.6 percent in 2025, and no globally competitive technology firms to help drive long-term productivity.

BC

It is just unbelievable that Russia has suffered 1.2 million casualties. Even if the estimate is somewhat exaggerated the Russian people would be seeing 8 in 1000 people injured. If the number  325,000 killed  is close to correct, 2 in 1000 Russians have been killed in Ukraine. Yet the Russian people do nothing. Granted, the losses are mostly happening to minorities and the dregs of society that "Real Russians" don't associate with. Consider however the company-grade officer losses that accompany such attrition. "Real Russians" are dying too. The legendary Russian fatalism and willingness to suffer is fully in evidence. This mind-set coupled with the "If not Putin, who?" mindset has paralyzed Russian politics. In the US, when our government kills two US citizens demonstrations break out everywhere. In Russia, the government kills 325,000 and crickets.
 
I must admit I expected a more serious effort from the Russians this winter, taking advantage of the bad weather to inhibit Ukrainian reconnaissance drones and FPV attack drones. That has just not happened. Zelenskyy asserted Russia just didn't have the capability for such offensives. Either he was correct or Putin decided that his missile/drone barrage was a better bet to do the job and cause a Ukrainian collapse. It remains to be seen if he is correct. We have at least 1.5 months of very low temperatures ahead in Ukraine. If Ukraine is still standing when the spring fighting season opens Putin will have to put up or shut up.
 
 Of course, Putin may still believe the administration will eventually deliver to him the peace he seeks. We shall see. If the US and the EU do not prematurely remove sanctions, Russia just might have to accept a cease-fire that falls short of victory. I don't think Putin is near ready to do that now, but the day may come. OTOH if that day does't come fairly soon, IMO within the next 6 months, Ukraine will indeed collapse. Of course, I thought that last year at this time :-).

[Goose]

CSIS has an analysis of the war, which highlights the high cost (on both sides) for minimal territorial changes.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-gr...ar-ukraine

Despite claims of battlefield momentum in Ukraine, the data shows that Russia is paying an extraordinary price for minimal gains and is in decline as a major power. Since February 2022, Russian forces have suffered nearly 1.2 million casualties, more losses than any major power in any war since World War II. At current rates, combined Russian and Ukrainian casualties could reach 2 million by the spring of 2026. After seizing the initiative in 2024, Russian forces have advanced at an average rate of between 15 and 70 meters per day in their most prominent offensives, slower than almost any major offensive campaign in any war in the last century. Meanwhile, Russia’s war economy is under mounting strain, with manufacturing declining, slowing growth of 0.6 percent in 2025, and no globally competitive technology firms to help drive long-term productivity.

BC

It is just unbelievable that Russia has suffered 1.2 million casualties. Even if the estimate is somewhat exaggerated the Russian people would be seeing 8 in 1000 people injured. If the number  325,000 killed  is close to correct, 2 in 1000 Russians have been killed in Ukraine. Yet the Russian people do nothing. Granted, the losses are mostly happening to minorities and the dregs of society that "Real Russians" don't associate with. Consider however the company-grade officer losses that accompany such attrition. "Real Russians" are dying too. The legendary Russian fatalism and willingness to suffer is fully in evidence. This mind-set coupled with the "If not Putin, who?" mindset has paralyzed Russian politics. In the US, when our government kills two US citizens demonstrations break out everywhere. In Russia, the government kills 325,000 and crickets.
 
I must admit I expected a more serious effort from the Russians this winter, taking advantage of the bad weather to inhibit Ukrainian reconnaissance drones and FPV attack drones. That has just not happened. Zelenskyy asserted Russia just didn't have the capability for such offensives. Either he was correct or Putin decided that his missile/drone barrage was a better bet to do the job and cause a Ukrainian collapse. It remains to be seen if he is correct. We have at least 1.5 months of very low temperatures ahead in Ukraine. If Ukraine is still standing when the spring fighting season opens Putin will have to put up or shut up.
 
 Of course, Putin may still believe the administration will eventually deliver to him the peace he seeks. We shall see. If the US and the EU do not prematurely remove sanctions, Russia just might have to accept a cease-fire that falls short of victory. I don't think Putin is near ready to do that now, but the day may come. OTOH if that day does't come fairly soon, IMO within the next 6 months, Ukraine will indeed collapse. Of course, I thought that last year at this time :-).