[Hieronymus]

Stanford (still?) on the last 4 in line in ESPN’s bracketology. Net ranking has slipped to 42 which would be 11 seed territory - ESPN has the same 11 seed. So best case right now, they are on the bubble and just barely hanging on. The season isn’t a loss yet, but it is on life support.

Incredibly all 4 last in teams are ACC. 3 of the last 6 games are against these last in teams - UVA, VT and Clemson. I expect they have to at least beat Miami, FSU, and SMU plus 1 of the other three games. They may need to win 2 of those 3; so at least 4-2 plus 1-2 ACC tourney wins or 5-1 with 0-1 ACC tourney wins down the stretch or they are likely out. The good news is the 3 tougher games are all at home, and the 3 easier away teams have been terrible at home (2-16).

3-3 I think means having to win the ACC tournament or at least coming really close.

I'm a little less bullish. I think to be safe (conservatively), they need to win all 6 and then lose to a ranked team in the tourney. If they go 5-1, and lose to a ranked team in the tourney, they will be in danger of not making it. If they go 4-2 and take another loss in the tourney, I don't think they make it. 

Can't believe this is where things stand. Bad losses to FGCU, Ga Tech, and Cal really hurt.

I don’t really disagree - I did say likely. Conference tournament upsets or bad breaks for us across our competitors could still push us out in my scenarios.

5 combined wins is the bare minimum to have a chance. 6 wins is better, and “safe” probably takes 7 more combined wins.

[Hieronymus]

Stanford (still?) on the last 4 in line in ESPN’s bracketology. Net ranking has slipped to 42 which would be 11 seed territory - ESPN has the same 11 seed. So best case right now, they are on the bubble and just barely hanging on. The season isn’t a loss yet, but it is on life support.

Incredibly all 4 last in teams are ACC. 3 of the last 6 games are against these last in teams - UVA, VT and Clemson. I expect they have to at least beat Miami, FSU, and SMU plus 1 of the other three games. They may need to win 2 of those 3; so at least 4-2 plus 1-2 ACC tourney wins or 5-1 with 0-1 ACC tourney wins down the stretch or they are likely out. The good news is the 3 tougher games are all at home, and the 3 easier away teams have been terrible at home (2-16).

3-3 I think means having to win the ACC tournament or at least coming really close.

I'm a little less bullish. I think to be safe (conservatively), they need to win all 6 and then lose to a ranked team in the tourney. If they go 5-1, and lose to a ranked team in the tourney, they will be in danger of not making it. If they go 4-2 and take another loss in the tourney, I don't think they make it. 

Can't believe this is where things stand. Bad losses to FGCU, Ga Tech, and Cal really hurt.

I don’t really disagree - I did say likely. Conference tournament upsets or bad breaks for us across our competitors could still push us out in my scenarios.

5 combined wins is the bare minimum to have a chance. 6 wins is better, and “safe” probably takes 7 more combined wins.