[Goose]

Russians may be more tolerant to inflation in the high single digits than Americans.

BC

Indeed they are, partly because it has been common since the 1990s and partly because this time military spending has caused employment numbers and wages to rise at a healthy clip. They also then ask "If not Putin, who?" Since there is no answer to that question they believe they have little choice but to accept what comes with Putin, inflation and a war in Ukraine. Until the answer to the question becomes "literally anybody but Putin" no change will be forthcoming.

Interesting way to frame it.  Is it a light switch?  Yesterday, Putin fine, today, Putin on the gallows with no prior warning or trend indicating it would occur?  Or is it more of a process that happens over time?  Quiet conversations between top members of the military that transition from joking to serious?  Things that look like a black box from the outside aren't necessarily stagnant on the inside.

It is undoubtedly true that discontent can build up over time, especially inside "elites" like the FSB and the military. However, in totalitarian societies lots of that discontent is not voiced, or is voiced only hesitantly "under four eyes". The consequences of having "improper" opinions are so bad they often remain internal. Nobody "jokes" because that is no defense. When the public finally is totally fed up and a few people/groups start expressing the discontent in public it may act like a catalyst for the pent-up rage. Thus it looks from the outside much as a light switch, where an avalanche of opposition seemingly comes from nowhere. Of course, if Putin can nip the initial expression of discontent in the bud, the result will be a damp squib.
 
The elites usually will not initiate the activity because they have too much to loose if it does not catch on immediately. They will however rapidly join in if it looks promising. Of course military coups do exist, but truly "good" totalitarian societies organize their military in such a way staging a coup is very difficult. There aren't enough natural  horizontal contacts to make it happen, only vertical ones. Russia historically has been very good at that, and Putin is no exception.

[Goose]

Russians may be more tolerant to inflation in the high single digits than Americans.

BC

Indeed they are, partly because it has been common since the 1990s and partly because this time military spending has caused employment numbers and wages to rise at a healthy clip. They also then ask "If not Putin, who?" Since there is no answer to that question they believe they have little choice but to accept what comes with Putin, inflation and a war in Ukraine. Until the answer to the question becomes "literally anybody but Putin" no change will be forthcoming.

Interesting way to frame it.  Is it a light switch?  Yesterday, Putin fine, today, Putin on the gallows with no prior warning or trend indicating it would occur?  Or is it more of a process that happens over time?  Quiet conversations between top members of the military that transition from joking to serious?  Things that look like a black box from the outside aren't necessarily stagnant on the inside.

It is undoubtedly true that discontent can build up over time, especially inside "elites" like the FSB and the military. However, in totalitarian societies lots of that discontent is not voiced, or is voiced only hesitantly "under four eyes". The consequences of having "improper" opinions are so bad they often remain internal. Nobody "jokes" because that is no defense. When the public finally is totally fed up and a few people/groups start expressing the discontent in public it may act like a catalyst for the pent-up rage. Thus it looks from the outside much as a light switch, where an avalanche of opposition seemingly comes from nowhere. Of course, if Putin can nip the initial expression of discontent in the bud, the result will be a damp squib.
 
The elites usually will not initiate the activity because they have too much to loose if it does not catch on immediately. They will however rapidly join in if it looks promising. Of course military coups do exist, but truly "good" totalitarian societies organize their military in such a way staging a coup is very difficult. There aren't enough natural  horizontal contacts to make it happen, only vertical ones. Russia historically has been very good at that, and Putin is no exception.