03-16-2026, 11:25 AM
(03-16-2026, 10:20 AM)Papa John Wrote: Meanwhile in Ukraine...Ukraine is indeed in no hurry to supply Russia with additional revenue. However Orbán does indeed have a real and serious problem with being cut off from Russian oil. This has been an ongoing issue for which there is no solution that pleases both Ukraine and Hungary. Orbán isn't just playing to his base. Obviously his position is indeed popular with his partisan supporters, but the problem is very real.
* Ukraine is in no hurry to reopen the Druzhba pipeline, which until late January transported Russian oil to Slovakia and Hungary. Hungary in particular is acting out (my term).
The EU can't solve it by throwing money at the problem because the Hungarian oil industry can't ever compete successfully with other EU states that have a seacoast. Being landlocked, Hungarian refineries would always pay significantly more for oil imported by sea that the competition that is not. The equalizer in the past was cheap Russian oil imported cheaply via a pipeline. Without that option, there is no Hungarian oil industry. That isn't palatable to Orbán and most Hungarians. This is in addition to the problem that the existing major refinery in Hungary is not set up to refine anything but Russian oil. While modifications are underway they are not complete and not designed to have the full capacity of the existing refinery. The obvious reason for this is the necessary capital investment would be pointless given the competitive disadvantage of the resulting refinery capacity.