[Jamesy]

I don't think it will be MGym this year. They competed yesterday in the MPSF conference championship. The team posted its best score of the year and still finished 5 points behind Oklahoma. Michigan is also ahead of Stanford this year. 

The NCAA meet is up next in 2 weeks.

I've been training Grok to rank the most likely possibilities.  Here is Grok's latest ranking:

Ranked by Likelihood of Winning the NCAA Title

1. Women’s Water Polo (still the top favorite) Record: 11-1 overall (5-1 in MPSF) Ranking: #2 nationally Natty Date: April 26, 2026 (NCAA championship game in La Jolla/San Diego).
   
2. Beach Volleyball (excellent shot — rolling) Record: 27-2 overall Ranking: #1 nationally (AVCA Collegiate Beach Poll) Natty Date: May 1–3, 2026 (NCAA Championship in Gulf Shores, AL).
   
3. Women’s Golf (very strong contender) Record: Extremely dominant in events (~70-3-0 style across competitive/match-play) Ranking: #1 nationally (unanimous, Clippd/Scoreboard) Natty Date: May 27, 2026 (NCAA finals at Omni La Costa).
   
4. Women’s Rowing (elite perennial contender) Record: Regatta-based (no traditional W-L) Ranking: #1 nationally (Pocock CRCA Coaches Poll) Natty Date: May 31, 2026 (NCAA grand finals at Lake Lanier).
   
5. Men’s Gymnastics (strong podium threat) Record: 9-1 overall Ranking: #3 nationally Natty Date: April 18, 2026 (NCAA Championships in Champaign, IL).
   
6. Women’s Gymnastics (now officially advancing to nationals!) Record: 14-5 overall (6-0 in ACC) Ranking: #7 nationally / #7 overall NCAA seed Natty Date: April 16–18, 2026 (NCAA Championships in Fort Worth, TX).
   
7. Women’s Lacrosse (solid dark horse) Record: 11-2 overall (7-1 in ACC) Ranking: #8–9 nationally (ESPN/Inside Lacrosse & NCAA RPI) Natty Date: May 24, 2026 (NCAA championship game in Evanston, IL).
   
8. Women’s Tennis (postseason wild card) Record: 9-7 overall (5-3 in ACC) Ranking: ~#36 nationally (ITA) Natty Date: Mid-May 2026 (NCAA team finals window).
   

Need to keep the natty streak alive!

I think women's lax is better than the 7th most likely team to win a natty for us. WWP clearly 1, rowing and BVB just behind WWP (it's likely either us or Texas in rowing and BVB has beaten every other top team in the sport at least once this year), women's golf in the third tier solely because of match play format, then women's lacrosse, men's gymnastics, men's tennis, women's gymnastics, women's tennis.

WLAX HC has only won one NCAA tournament game her entire coaching career (1-5). She will not win a Natty this year and probably never. She was blown out in 2022 with a running clock in the first half. Underperformed last season. Repeating it again with the loss to Villanova.

5th most likely Stanford team to win an NCAA title does not mean I think it's likely they will win a natty. I'd put the probability at < 5% and should move men's gymnastics ahead of them since I'd put them at at least a 10% chance of winning an NCAA title this year. Simply my own ranking of possibilities.

[Jamesy]

I don't think it will be MGym this year. They competed yesterday in the MPSF conference championship. The team posted its best score of the year and still finished 5 points behind Oklahoma. Michigan is also ahead of Stanford this year. 

The NCAA meet is up next in 2 weeks.

I've been training Grok to rank the most likely possibilities.  Here is Grok's latest ranking:

Ranked by Likelihood of Winning the NCAA Title

1. Women’s Water Polo (still the top favorite) Record: 11-1 overall (5-1 in MPSF) Ranking: #2 nationally Natty Date: April 26, 2026 (NCAA championship game in La Jolla/San Diego).
   
2. Beach Volleyball (excellent shot — rolling) Record: 27-2 overall Ranking: #1 nationally (AVCA Collegiate Beach Poll) Natty Date: May 1–3, 2026 (NCAA Championship in Gulf Shores, AL).
   
3. Women’s Golf (very strong contender) Record: Extremely dominant in events (~70-3-0 style across competitive/match-play) Ranking: #1 nationally (unanimous, Clippd/Scoreboard) Natty Date: May 27, 2026 (NCAA finals at Omni La Costa).
   
4. Women’s Rowing (elite perennial contender) Record: Regatta-based (no traditional W-L) Ranking: #1 nationally (Pocock CRCA Coaches Poll) Natty Date: May 31, 2026 (NCAA grand finals at Lake Lanier).
   
5. Men’s Gymnastics (strong podium threat) Record: 9-1 overall Ranking: #3 nationally Natty Date: April 18, 2026 (NCAA Championships in Champaign, IL).
   
6. Women’s Gymnastics (now officially advancing to nationals!) Record: 14-5 overall (6-0 in ACC) Ranking: #7 nationally / #7 overall NCAA seed Natty Date: April 16–18, 2026 (NCAA Championships in Fort Worth, TX).
   
7. Women’s Lacrosse (solid dark horse) Record: 11-2 overall (7-1 in ACC) Ranking: #8–9 nationally (ESPN/Inside Lacrosse & NCAA RPI) Natty Date: May 24, 2026 (NCAA championship game in Evanston, IL).
   
8. Women’s Tennis (postseason wild card) Record: 9-7 overall (5-3 in ACC) Ranking: ~#36 nationally (ITA) Natty Date: Mid-May 2026 (NCAA team finals window).
   

Need to keep the natty streak alive!

I think women's lax is better than the 7th most likely team to win a natty for us. WWP clearly 1, rowing and BVB just behind WWP (it's likely either us or Texas in rowing and BVB has beaten every other top team in the sport at least once this year), women's golf in the third tier solely because of match play format, then women's lacrosse, men's gymnastics, men's tennis, women's gymnastics, women's tennis.

WLAX HC has only won one NCAA tournament game her entire coaching career (1-5). She will not win a Natty this year and probably never. She was blown out in 2022 with a running clock in the first half. Underperformed last season. Repeating it again with the loss to Villanova.

5th most likely Stanford team to win an NCAA title does not mean I think it's likely they will win a natty. I'd put the probability at < 5% and should move men's gymnastics ahead of them since I'd put them at at least a 10% chance of winning an NCAA title this year. Simply my own ranking of possibilities.