08-31-2026, 05:56 AM
1. The Tavita Pritchard era begins with a win enabled by scoring by all three phases! We all would have taken that, especially considering the most important player delivering provides hope in the most crucial of areas. We're also continuing the welcome pattern of making gameday on The Farm a fun family experience by winning home games and providing whatever pageantry we can despite football irrelevance. After it took us five years to win three FBS games at home, we've now won five of the last seven at home. Stanford Stadium is becoming a place where people leave the games happy or at least relieved, not despondent. It's also great to get Tavita the win in his debut. That tells us nothing about the trajectory ahead (Walt Harris and Troy Taylor each won debuts on the road), but when you're scratching for wins they all matter a lot. Nice to start in the win column, first time we've done that since the Taylor Hawaii debut in 2023. The ten point margin of victory was befitting a team better than last year, both compared to the Hawaii game and to what algorithms would have expected based on our season-long 2025 quality. This is something we can build on and at this point that's fundamentally what Tavita is seeking.
2. This was so much better than last year's opener. A big part of that is the dramatic road swing affecting both teams. Still, our improvement was notable enough in most factors that it leaves me with a cautiously optimistic feeling. We scored 2.33 points per non-garbage drive (subtracting the single play before the half and the defensive and special teams scores). That's a lot better than last year's 1.44 but portends an offense that will struggle this year. 2.33 points per drive defenses have tended to be in the 78-79 range nationally in this era and SP+ projected Hawaii's defense #91, so the offense wasn't strong. We gave up 2.08 points per non-garbage drive (subtracting the white flag at the end), better than giving up 2.62 to Hawaii last year. 2.08 points per drive offenses have tended toward the low 70s in this era and SP+projected Hawaii's offense #68, so Stanford's defense was better than offense. The yardage battle tells a more vivid story of domination we can take encouragement from. We gained 6.8 yards per play, third most against any FBS foe since October 2021, though Hawaii gave up more four times last year so we should be clear that a bad defense had a vote in this. We gave up 4.35 yards per play, the third most stifling FBS defensive performance of this era (Hawaii has had two games worse than that per year under Chang). That made for our biggest yards per play margin against an FBS opponent since 2021 Vanderbilt. In the entire half decade era, we only have had even a positive margin against an FBS team seven times (2025 Cal, 2025 Boston College, 2023 Hawaii, 2023 Arizona just barely, 2021 UCLA, 2021 Vanderbilt, 2021 USC). We don't often get to see Stanford outplay somebody, so to start the Pritchard era that way is nice.
3. Solid way to start Pritchard's tenure from a coaching perspective, especially considering how nervous I was about a novice head coach (who is also a novice playcaller) and rusty defensive coordinator. It wasn't perfect. A delay of game coming off the sideline to start a crucial fourth quarter possession is brutal. Some may have well-argued bones to pick with electively taking a delay of game to punt rather than trying a long field goal, trying a short field goal rather than try to push forward for a first down and hopefully seven points rather than three (we got zero but that wasn't his fault), the fourth down attempts (I think analytically right both times he went for it but people can always argue), etc. To me these are fundamentally sound decisions, with I think the punt on the short field the one that stands out as one I wouldn't have done in real time. I don't think it's accurate to say he turtled but one could argue the sequence of consecutive Ford runs followed by an incomplete pass was valuing the clock over possession. I don't focus on playcalling as much as some, but the number of third down runs to convert could be seen as tendency-breaking, and the number and timing of downfield chunk plays seemed pretty well dialed-up. If this is game one of playcalling and situational decision making and he's a professed lifelong learner who his colleagues say has humility as a superpower, I am feeling pretty good about the gameday aspect. I always give that less stock than some and certainly less than having the horses in your locker room, but I'd rather he be a good decisionmaker than not. And the thing Pritchard wants to emphasize and wants to grade team on/be graded on is finish. So far so good.
4. The big blemish of the game vibes-wise is blowing the lead. If we hadn't executed the comeback drive this would have been devastating, historic for both squads. It would have been Hawaii's best ever fourth quarter comeback. The announcers said the last time Stanford blew a lead like that was the 2005 UCLA game. We would feel a lot different about this game had the last sequence not played out like it did. A lot of people have asked me what happened to the defense. I don't exactly know. We may have lost some focus. Pritchard suggested the offense not staying on the field long enough played a role - and indeed, the Stanford drives prior to the last two Hawaii touchdowns combined for eight plays, 26 yards, and 3 minutes and 43 seconds. Our best defensive player giving up two touchdowns is not something that didn't happen (explanation for cute elocution: I definitely would not blame 35 solely for the collapse but he was proximate line of defense on both touchdowns). At the same time, the beginning of Hawaii's comeback was fueled by a drive of very good execution and chains moving by Alejado. The next scoring drive was given a mulligan by Jay Green's facemask penalty. I understand hand-wringing over squandering a seemingly comfortable lead, but sometimes you take a shot from the other team or the bounce of the ball. Ultimately we weathered the storm and the final score was more reflective of the game than the nerve-wracking fourth quarter. Yes, we could have lost. But we deserved to win and probably by about ten.
5. There was something encouraging about each phase. We have had a number of good run defense games the last few years and this game did not disappoint. 46 yards on 2.09 yards per attempt is the most Hawaii has been bottled up on the ground in 14 games, though Barfield only got one carry before getting hurt. In pass defense, 5.3 yards per attempt is the fourth lowest of the era. We really have the Air Raid's number the last few contests as the only other teams to contain them like we have were two of last year's elite national pass defenses (Arizona, Fresno State). When we had the ball, the passing stats would have been the third best statistically each of the last two years (Hawaii got carved worse 3-4 times last year). The run game is my primary concern. The encouraging thing is that we had the most yards per carry and second most rushing yards (just behind last year's Hawaii game) in our five Group of Six games this era. Alas, I would advise caution here in light of the opponent. Half of Hawaii's opponents last year ran this well, and they played the #107 schedule. The run game stats got a boost from not giving up any sacks, the first time we accomplished that in three years (2023 Hawaii). That's a very positive data point for the pass protection but makes the run game even more troubling.
2. This was so much better than last year's opener. A big part of that is the dramatic road swing affecting both teams. Still, our improvement was notable enough in most factors that it leaves me with a cautiously optimistic feeling. We scored 2.33 points per non-garbage drive (subtracting the single play before the half and the defensive and special teams scores). That's a lot better than last year's 1.44 but portends an offense that will struggle this year. 2.33 points per drive defenses have tended to be in the 78-79 range nationally in this era and SP+ projected Hawaii's defense #91, so the offense wasn't strong. We gave up 2.08 points per non-garbage drive (subtracting the white flag at the end), better than giving up 2.62 to Hawaii last year. 2.08 points per drive offenses have tended toward the low 70s in this era and SP+projected Hawaii's offense #68, so Stanford's defense was better than offense. The yardage battle tells a more vivid story of domination we can take encouragement from. We gained 6.8 yards per play, third most against any FBS foe since October 2021, though Hawaii gave up more four times last year so we should be clear that a bad defense had a vote in this. We gave up 4.35 yards per play, the third most stifling FBS defensive performance of this era (Hawaii has had two games worse than that per year under Chang). That made for our biggest yards per play margin against an FBS opponent since 2021 Vanderbilt. In the entire half decade era, we only have had even a positive margin against an FBS team seven times (2025 Cal, 2025 Boston College, 2023 Hawaii, 2023 Arizona just barely, 2021 UCLA, 2021 Vanderbilt, 2021 USC). We don't often get to see Stanford outplay somebody, so to start the Pritchard era that way is nice.
3. Solid way to start Pritchard's tenure from a coaching perspective, especially considering how nervous I was about a novice head coach (who is also a novice playcaller) and rusty defensive coordinator. It wasn't perfect. A delay of game coming off the sideline to start a crucial fourth quarter possession is brutal. Some may have well-argued bones to pick with electively taking a delay of game to punt rather than trying a long field goal, trying a short field goal rather than try to push forward for a first down and hopefully seven points rather than three (we got zero but that wasn't his fault), the fourth down attempts (I think analytically right both times he went for it but people can always argue), etc. To me these are fundamentally sound decisions, with I think the punt on the short field the one that stands out as one I wouldn't have done in real time. I don't think it's accurate to say he turtled but one could argue the sequence of consecutive Ford runs followed by an incomplete pass was valuing the clock over possession. I don't focus on playcalling as much as some, but the number of third down runs to convert could be seen as tendency-breaking, and the number and timing of downfield chunk plays seemed pretty well dialed-up. If this is game one of playcalling and situational decision making and he's a professed lifelong learner who his colleagues say has humility as a superpower, I am feeling pretty good about the gameday aspect. I always give that less stock than some and certainly less than having the horses in your locker room, but I'd rather he be a good decisionmaker than not. And the thing Pritchard wants to emphasize and wants to grade team on/be graded on is finish. So far so good.
4. The big blemish of the game vibes-wise is blowing the lead. If we hadn't executed the comeback drive this would have been devastating, historic for both squads. It would have been Hawaii's best ever fourth quarter comeback. The announcers said the last time Stanford blew a lead like that was the 2005 UCLA game. We would feel a lot different about this game had the last sequence not played out like it did. A lot of people have asked me what happened to the defense. I don't exactly know. We may have lost some focus. Pritchard suggested the offense not staying on the field long enough played a role - and indeed, the Stanford drives prior to the last two Hawaii touchdowns combined for eight plays, 26 yards, and 3 minutes and 43 seconds. Our best defensive player giving up two touchdowns is not something that didn't happen (explanation for cute elocution: I definitely would not blame 35 solely for the collapse but he was proximate line of defense on both touchdowns). At the same time, the beginning of Hawaii's comeback was fueled by a drive of very good execution and chains moving by Alejado. The next scoring drive was given a mulligan by Jay Green's facemask penalty. I understand hand-wringing over squandering a seemingly comfortable lead, but sometimes you take a shot from the other team or the bounce of the ball. Ultimately we weathered the storm and the final score was more reflective of the game than the nerve-wracking fourth quarter. Yes, we could have lost. But we deserved to win and probably by about ten.
5. There was something encouraging about each phase. We have had a number of good run defense games the last few years and this game did not disappoint. 46 yards on 2.09 yards per attempt is the most Hawaii has been bottled up on the ground in 14 games, though Barfield only got one carry before getting hurt. In pass defense, 5.3 yards per attempt is the fourth lowest of the era. We really have the Air Raid's number the last few contests as the only other teams to contain them like we have were two of last year's elite national pass defenses (Arizona, Fresno State). When we had the ball, the passing stats would have been the third best statistically each of the last two years (Hawaii got carved worse 3-4 times last year). The run game is my primary concern. The encouraging thing is that we had the most yards per carry and second most rushing yards (just behind last year's Hawaii game) in our five Group of Six games this era. Alas, I would advise caution here in light of the opponent. Half of Hawaii's opponents last year ran this well, and they played the #107 schedule. The run game stats got a boost from not giving up any sacks, the first time we accomplished that in three years (2023 Hawaii). That's a very positive data point for the pass protection but makes the run game even more troubling.