6. Warren's regression to the mean continues, though I think subjectively most of us feel like it's hard to judge him with so much going wrong around him. If Ashton Daniels can be #84 and #85 in Total QBR at Stanford and #27 at Florida State, with another former matriculator Bear Bachmeier #28, it's pretty obvious the impact the overall milieu can have. Ours is negative, to put it mildly. That apology out of the way, Warren yesterday was 96th of 117 QBs in Total QBR this week, currently falling behind the Duke game as the worst rating of his year and the second worst of his career. He's now 86th on the season, so halfway through this is basically identical to a Daniels season. I have seen enough from High and Nico Brown to exempt them from the harshest reflections on our milieu - and never lose sight of these relative bright spots, along with Prongos (though yesterday wasn't good for him), being transfers. High was the one guy yesterday who moved the chains more than once (what a pathetic stat), though he had two costly penalties (one bone-headed and deeply selfish and another an aggressive call by the refs). Too much damage on the penalties to be our player of the game, but he's in the running for player of the season. High is just ahead of CJ Williams' per game receiving pace for last year, amazingly/depressingly the only player on the team who is on any sort of notable national leaderboard (currently 66th in receiving yards per game). [Moving the chains (first down leaderboard): High (2), Ford, Onovughe, Blackburn, Hall, Nico Brown, Chris Davis Jr.] Shout-out to House for being graded the lone good game on the offense by PFF's view. Pale has been bad every game and in this game took a first down off the board with a hold. Halfway through the season, PFF assesses the strongest links on offense to be Nico Brown, High, and Prongos and the weakest Pale, Hoitink (now second string), and Hall.
7. The box score, like one's eyeballs, did not make the defense look good. On an individual level, only the linebackers Galvan and Mattingly show up numerous times making positive plays, five each including most notably Galvan's tackle for loss to force a field goal. Unfortunately, eyeballs and PFF corroboration point to those two, along with another sometime-playmaker in Green, as having more bad plays than good plays. PFF viewed Bryant and McAllister as the bright spots of the defense with Briehler and BMO as decent. Since Bryant had a non-garbage pass breakup plus a stop in garbage time, he is this week's one eyed king in the land of the blind. Halfway through the season, PFF assesses the strongest links on defense to be BMO, Nicholson (out), McAllister (not a ton of playing time), and Kaminski and the weakest links Davis, Galvan, and Mattingly. Those latter three along with Pale on offense are in nightmare fuel sub-50 grade territory.
8. At least Aidan Flintoft came to play (I was going to shout out the unit but they gave up a big return). Flintoft had net punts of 35 to the 42 (bad), 47 to the 30 (good), 46 to the 1 (perfect), 11 to our own 39 (terrible result due to a massive return), 51 to the 19 (great), 43 to the 25 (solid after a good return, albeit the surrender of the game not to go for it), 53 to the 29 (great), and 47 to the 10 (great). This week in Chris Davis Jr. taking kicks back to give up yards compared to just taking a fair catch, Davbis had returns of 14 yards to give up five yards, 18 yards to give up six yards, 27 yards to gain two yards, and 23 yards to lose one yard but then a hold made it a 12 yard loss compared to a fair catch. Kickoffs are the worst plays of the game for Stanford. We go backwards. Put Daniel Ogiozee back there and start on the 25 each time at this rate. Tate and Kuo had teams coverage tackles. Tre Williams and Giuliano had holds. Halfway through the season, it doesn't seem obvious we've fixed the special teams problems that dogged us last year.
9. (Relatively) Distinguished in Defeat: Kahlil House, Leroy Bryant, Aidan Flintoft, Cory Robinson
10. There may have never been a more well-timed and needed get right game. It feels like a gift to get an FCS team coming across the country so we can get back in the win column and do damage control on bombed out player confidence and program morale. We have played so poorly that cynics will question whether we're even guaranteed to beat the Phoenix. Sagarin would have us 25 point favorites and even using the contender-for-worst-modern power team SP+ ranking for us we'd be favored by 19-20. That equates to an 88-94 percent chance of victory. Across all of college football, Power Four teams vs. FCS roadkill (what it's become in a transfer portal world that truly amounts to castes) are on a 176 game win streak. The last time a Power Four team lost such a game was.....Stanford vs. Sacramento State. If we bookend that streak that would truly be a new all-time low. I am pretty positive we win. I hope we win by 28+ and things can feel a little bit less low than they are now. If we can start the second half of the schedule with our third win, there's a chance, perhaps, to optically save something. I'd still have a lot of doubts about our vision and path. But to date we've played two top five teams and our median opponent is 36, so a second half with zero top 30 opponents and a 55.5 median opponent is far easier. If we have the culture and camaraderie we crowed about all year, it is in our power to get four or five wins, as bad as it's looked to date. Halfway into the schedule the epitaph of the season is not set in stone. This might be the worst team ever. It might be a very bumpy start to something that gives us a pulse for the much-anticipated awakening to the modern era necessity of big transfer hauls. The guys that get paid to play and coach this game have it in their power to decide which it is. Show some pride.
7. The box score, like one's eyeballs, did not make the defense look good. On an individual level, only the linebackers Galvan and Mattingly show up numerous times making positive plays, five each including most notably Galvan's tackle for loss to force a field goal. Unfortunately, eyeballs and PFF corroboration point to those two, along with another sometime-playmaker in Green, as having more bad plays than good plays. PFF viewed Bryant and McAllister as the bright spots of the defense with Briehler and BMO as decent. Since Bryant had a non-garbage pass breakup plus a stop in garbage time, he is this week's one eyed king in the land of the blind. Halfway through the season, PFF assesses the strongest links on defense to be BMO, Nicholson (out), McAllister (not a ton of playing time), and Kaminski and the weakest links Davis, Galvan, and Mattingly. Those latter three along with Pale on offense are in nightmare fuel sub-50 grade territory.
8. At least Aidan Flintoft came to play (I was going to shout out the unit but they gave up a big return). Flintoft had net punts of 35 to the 42 (bad), 47 to the 30 (good), 46 to the 1 (perfect), 11 to our own 39 (terrible result due to a massive return), 51 to the 19 (great), 43 to the 25 (solid after a good return, albeit the surrender of the game not to go for it), 53 to the 29 (great), and 47 to the 10 (great). This week in Chris Davis Jr. taking kicks back to give up yards compared to just taking a fair catch, Davbis had returns of 14 yards to give up five yards, 18 yards to give up six yards, 27 yards to gain two yards, and 23 yards to lose one yard but then a hold made it a 12 yard loss compared to a fair catch. Kickoffs are the worst plays of the game for Stanford. We go backwards. Put Daniel Ogiozee back there and start on the 25 each time at this rate. Tate and Kuo had teams coverage tackles. Tre Williams and Giuliano had holds. Halfway through the season, it doesn't seem obvious we've fixed the special teams problems that dogged us last year.
9. (Relatively) Distinguished in Defeat: Kahlil House, Leroy Bryant, Aidan Flintoft, Cory Robinson
10. There may have never been a more well-timed and needed get right game. It feels like a gift to get an FCS team coming across the country so we can get back in the win column and do damage control on bombed out player confidence and program morale. We have played so poorly that cynics will question whether we're even guaranteed to beat the Phoenix. Sagarin would have us 25 point favorites and even using the contender-for-worst-modern power team SP+ ranking for us we'd be favored by 19-20. That equates to an 88-94 percent chance of victory. Across all of college football, Power Four teams vs. FCS roadkill (what it's become in a transfer portal world that truly amounts to castes) are on a 176 game win streak. The last time a Power Four team lost such a game was.....Stanford vs. Sacramento State. If we bookend that streak that would truly be a new all-time low. I am pretty positive we win. I hope we win by 28+ and things can feel a little bit less low than they are now. If we can start the second half of the schedule with our third win, there's a chance, perhaps, to optically save something. I'd still have a lot of doubts about our vision and path. But to date we've played two top five teams and our median opponent is 36, so a second half with zero top 30 opponents and a 55.5 median opponent is far easier. If we have the culture and camaraderie we crowed about all year, it is in our power to get four or five wins, as bad as it's looked to date. Halfway into the schedule the epitaph of the season is not set in stone. This might be the worst team ever. It might be a very bumpy start to something that gives us a pulse for the much-anticipated awakening to the modern era necessity of big transfer hauls. The guys that get paid to play and coach this game have it in their power to decide which it is. Show some pride.