(11-19-2018, 02:35 PM)barrister7 Wrote: Stanford plays ucla this Saturday. They just cleaned $c's clock last week with a transfer running
back from UCDavis gaining over 200 yards. Some commentators feel this is the start of something
really big in the Southland under Chip Kelley. How do we match up" I had this as a clear win a few
weeks ago but now I am starting to get nervous.
I am nervous for each and every game.
Some rough thoughts.
Favoring UCLA:
- Offense is coming along, if not exactly consistent. They passed but couldn't run much vs ASU (335 passing, 104 running) - ran but didn't pass much vs $C (166 passing, 313 running).
- They probably now have a better QB now in Speight, though that isn't exactly clear. Speight and Thompson-Robinson have about the same completion %, yds/att, and PER.
- As far as I understand they
are reasonably healthy. have relatively few new injuries. [EDIT: as noted by Outsider, overall UCLA has tons of injuries - but my impression is that hasn't gotten worse the last few games - not sure of details.]
- Their secondary is reasonably sized to match up with our tall receivers: CBs at 5'11'' and 5'10'', safeties at 6'0'' and 6'1'', and nickel at 6'0''. [At least no 5'9'' starters.]
- Their pass defense is better than their run defense, and Stanford is now pretty much an all-pass team.
- Game is in LA.
- Presumably they are in a relatively good mood right now.
Favoring Stanford:
- UCLA's defense is not good. Second worst in conference to OSU.
- Their defense doesn't seem to be coming around - they just gave up their season worst yds/play vs $C.
- Stanford's offense has been moving the ball regularly since the Utah game - even though not always holding onto the ball and finishing drives.
- Stanford's run defense is trending better with reputable performances post-Utah.
- Stanford is coming off a bye week and should be healthier than otherwise.
- Sagarin predictor has Stanford by 10 (12.3 neutral field); ESPN Stanford by 12.3 on neutral field (don't know their projected home field differential).
- UCLA spends week celebrating win over rival rather than prepping.