06-20-2019, 10:26 AM
(06-20-2019, 08:48 AM)stupac2 Wrote: I think it's just stochastic. Unlike the OSUs and Alabamas and Clemsons of the world we can't just replace 5 stars with 5 stars, it's all about what guys can qualify, who of those want to come here, and who of those successfully make the transition. When Saban has a 4* senior who never makes the jump he just replaces him with a younger 4*, we can't always do that. And even then those teams have holes that make them vulnerable to the right program.
Plus, as you point out, depth is a big issue, especially with our current self-imposed roster limits. If a blue-blood has a 4* DL go down, oh well, now that 5* freshman gets more time. If it happens to us it can be completely devastating, and there's not a lot we can do about it because we're more reliant on getting guys and coaching them up than "we have more talent than you". Not that the coaching up doesn't happen at the other schools, it's just that it's easier to handle the random injuries when you're raking in the best talent every single year, rather than having bumper years and lean years.
Of course, there's probably some amount of "blame" to place on the staff for how they handle the situation once the players are in the building, but it's not like the coaches we have here haven't fielded damn good units in the past, so I don't know how much stock to put into that. I think we're just in a position where, given the realities of recruiting to Stanford, we're hurt more by randomness than other big-name programs.
But, honestly, it's shocking that Stanford has been a more consistently good program than, say, Oregon and USC. That shouldn't happen, and is a testament to Shaw's ability to manage the program these past 8 years.
Agree with your last statement. I guess my point was that there is no reason to believe that the talent we do get wouldn't be distributed evenly between the offense and defense. In other words, why would we have one year where all the talent is concentrated on the offense but the defense is poor, and another year where the special talent is on defense, and the offense is poor. Wouldn't the most likely scenario be that the talent is divided between the two, and we have a good but not great offense and a good but not great defense?
Honestly, I think this is a bit of a small numbers thing and that in due time we would basically have offenses and defenses that randomly fluctuated about a certain level.
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