(09-06-2019, 04:07 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: What I saw from Stanford against Northwestern was talented Stanford players operating as less than the sum of their individual parts and Northwestern players operating as greater than the sum of their individual parts. Northwestern didn’t make as many plays as Stanford, but were more crisp in their execution and more consistent in their performance in general.
That's certainly an interesting take. I won't claim that Stanford's execution was crisp, but if you think the Northwestern players were crisp in their execution, perhaps the heat got to you. Forget the 4 turnovers that Northwestern made. Forget blockers that stood like topiary as Stanford pass rushers blew by them. Forget the innumerable dropped passes and missed tackles. Don't take my word for it, take Fitzgerald's.
https://dailynorthwestern.com/2019/08/31...n-in-loss/
Quote:Missed tackles were the biggest weakness for the defense. Multiple times, especially outside the numbers, NU defenders were unable to bring their opponents to the ground. When these Stanford players got past the isolated Cats players, they found themselves in space.
Sometimes these plays resulted in first downs. Other times, they set up big plays. Junior safety Travis Whillock — who had a game-best 10 total tackles — recalled a 2nd-and-Long play where he came on a safety blitz and missed a tackle. Instead of keeping Stanford on a 3rd-and-Distance play, the Cardinal had a much more manageable third down.
Stanford converted the third down, and Willock said little things like that make the difference.
“If I tackle him and it’s third and long, we may give our offense an extra minute and a half or two minutes,” Whillock said. “That’s on me… I know I’m a player that can make those plays.”
In regards to the plethora of missed tackles, Fitzgerald referenced an old defensive saying during his post-game presser: “If you can’t make a tackle unblocked, you really hurt the defense.” He said there was a lot of that during the game.
And on offense, I really want what you are smoking if you even saw a scintila of execution on a team that scored 7 points and gave up 4 turnovers. Here's the tale of the tape:
First downs 21 - 15 Stanford
Total plays 73 - 60 Stanford
Total yards 365 - 210 Stanford
Yards/play 5 - 3.5 Stanford
Rushing yards 132 - 93 Stanford
Rushing yards per cary 3.4 - 2.8 Stanford
Passing rating 135 - 66 Stanford
Passing yards 233 - 117 Stanford
Third down conversions 44% (7/16) - 36% (5/14) Stanford
YPA 6.9 - 4.3 Stanford
Time of possession 38 - 22 Stanford
Turnovers 4-2 Northwestern
Interception 2-0 Northwestern
Sacks 3-1 Stanford (27 - 3 in terms of yards)
Tackles for loss 5-2 Stanford (29 - 5 in terms of yards)
QB hurries 5-1 Stanford
This wasn't a case where Stanford eeked out a win in a game it should have lost. Virtually every important stat would have predicted not just a Stanford win, but a very solid Stanford win. Let's look at the "five factors"
https://www.footballstudyhall.com/2014/1...ve-factors
* A 1.5 yards per play edge predicts is associated with an 86% - 89% chance of winning and an average scoring margin of +13 to +17.5 (1.5 ypp is right on the border)
* A +2 turnover margin is associated with a 79% chance of winning and an average scoring margin of 16 points
I can't calculate the other stats because they are derived, but I would be shocked if we didn't significantly outperform NW in terms of efficiency and explosiveness. Drive finishing might have been a push. Field position probably favored NW, see below.
Here is where Northwestern outperformed Stanford
Punting average 45 - 33
Punt return 28 to -1
Net punting, NW got 181 net yards on 4 punts (45.3/punt), while Stanford got 115 net yards on 5 punts (23/punt)
Penalties Stanford 8 for 78 yards, NW 8 for 67 yards (though I believe Stanford's negated a couple big plays)
Punting is clearly an issue that has been discussed, and could make a difference against USC.