[Mick]

UC Berkeley, Princeton, Columbia, Ohio State, and many others going to online classes only.

Same with SJSU and SCU, as of today.

[Mick]

UC Berkeley, Princeton, Columbia, Ohio State, and many others going to online classes only.

Same with SJSU and SCU, as of today.

[akiddoc]

UC Berkeley, Princeton, Columbia, Ohio State, and many others going to online classes only.

Same with SJSU and SCU, as of today.

Large numbers of Stanford employees started working from home today. That did not include my daughter because her boss is oblivious to the world around her. My daughter had to point out the emails coming in from the Stanford Administration to her boss to get her department into that mode. Starting tomorrow.

[akiddoc]

UC Berkeley, Princeton, Columbia, Ohio State, and many others going to online classes only.

Same with SJSU and SCU, as of today.

Large numbers of Stanford employees started working from home today. That did not include my daughter because her boss is oblivious to the world around her. My daughter had to point out the emails coming in from the Stanford Administration to her boss to get her department into that mode. Starting tomorrow.

[cardcrimson]

To that end, [the County of] Santa Clara is banning events with more than 1,000 attendants through early April. As this ESPN story notes, that makes it unclear whether the Sharks' home games will be played in an empty arena when they return from a three-game road trip late next week. Is it just me, or does that concern suddenly seem like someone playing a pretty dang freakin' tiny violin?

Well if the ban continues until next fall, at least Stanford Football won't be affected. . . .

[cardcrimson]

To that end, [the County of] Santa Clara is banning events with more than 1,000 attendants through early April. As this ESPN story notes, that makes it unclear whether the Sharks' home games will be played in an empty arena when they return from a three-game road trip late next week. Is it just me, or does that concern suddenly seem like someone playing a pretty dang freakin' tiny violin?

Well if the ban continues until next fall, at least Stanford Football won't be affected. . . .

[M T]

South Korea flattened the curve by mass testing and texting people with x distance of a confirmed case every time it happened. Japan is FOS. They aren’t testing hardly at all and trying to keep its numbers down because it doesn’t want the Olympics cancelled. 



Singapore, Hong Kong, and Taiwan have done very well to stop spread in part because of complete transparency about data and also based on being prepared by learning from SARS outbreak.

Why do people believe these bogus CFR numbers?   The calculation they are using has a terrible flaw.
If Santa Clara County finds 1000 cases tomorrow, the CFR calculated this way would be 0.1%.  That's great, right!
If Santa Clara County finds 100,000 cases tomorrow, the CFR calculated this way would be 0.001%.  That's better!  Get more cases and your CFR goes down!  It doesn't matter how many eventually die!

This calculation makes the invalid assumption that all who have the disease will survive.

South Korea's death rate for cases that that have either died or discharged is greater than 30%, with no assumptions made about the outcome of those who are still fighting the disease.  Not that such a number is terribly meaningful, but the CFR numbers they are using, and being quoted, are BOGUS.

For Wuhan,  died/(died or discharged) is 7% now and slowly decreasing.  A weekly marginal value is also decreasing, approaching 1.4%.

---

Why are people fixated on the CFR number anyway?  If I told you a disease killed all and only left-handers with hands wider than 9", would you really care what the CFR was?   Look at that graph from Italy (again, badly calculated).)   If you're under a certain age, you have almost no risk of death.  If you're over a certain age and you get the disease, you have a VERY high rate of death, possibly approaching 100%.

For Italy, only 12.9% of cases have gotten to an outcome of discharge or death.  But over 13% of those 80+ that have gotten the disease have died.  If only 12.9% of their cases have gotten to an outcome, then essentially all outcomes for those over 80+ have been death.  It seems it might be pretty darn near 100% death rate for 80+, so far.

The numbers for the 70-79yo in Italy(6%) and China (8%) have suffered the same error.  Those numbers assume everyone with the disease that hasn't died will survive.   I wish it were true, but  it won't be.  Those numbers will climb.   For China, the widely-circulated, miscalculated CFR at the time was 2.3%.  Now, if you do the same miscalculation, you come up with 4.8%.  Does that suggest the 8% CFR for 70-79 should be about 16%?  I really don't have the numbers.

If the early (both China & Italy) demographics holds and the majority (China: 512 out of 1023 as of 11 Feb) of deaths occur in the 70+ age group (7% of the Chinese population), it is probably going to be really bad for seniors.  It doesn't matter how many kids get sick.

I have not found demographic numbers that give the deaths & discharges per age group for any where.

[M T]

South Korea flattened the curve by mass testing and texting people with x distance of a confirmed case every time it happened. Japan is FOS. They aren’t testing hardly at all and trying to keep its numbers down because it doesn’t want the Olympics cancelled. 



Singapore, Hong Kong, and Taiwan have done very well to stop spread in part because of complete transparency about data and also based on being prepared by learning from SARS outbreak.

Why do people believe these bogus CFR numbers?   The calculation they are using has a terrible flaw.
If Santa Clara County finds 1000 cases tomorrow, the CFR calculated this way would be 0.1%.  That's great, right!
If Santa Clara County finds 100,000 cases tomorrow, the CFR calculated this way would be 0.001%.  That's better!  Get more cases and your CFR goes down!  It doesn't matter how many eventually die!

This calculation makes the invalid assumption that all who have the disease will survive.

South Korea's death rate for cases that that have either died or discharged is greater than 30%, with no assumptions made about the outcome of those who are still fighting the disease.  Not that such a number is terribly meaningful, but the CFR numbers they are using, and being quoted, are BOGUS.

For Wuhan,  died/(died or discharged) is 7% now and slowly decreasing.  A weekly marginal value is also decreasing, approaching 1.4%.

---

Why are people fixated on the CFR number anyway?  If I told you a disease killed all and only left-handers with hands wider than 9", would you really care what the CFR was?   Look at that graph from Italy (again, badly calculated).)   If you're under a certain age, you have almost no risk of death.  If you're over a certain age and you get the disease, you have a VERY high rate of death, possibly approaching 100%.

For Italy, only 12.9% of cases have gotten to an outcome of discharge or death.  But over 13% of those 80+ that have gotten the disease have died.  If only 12.9% of their cases have gotten to an outcome, then essentially all outcomes for those over 80+ have been death.  It seems it might be pretty darn near 100% death rate for 80+, so far.

The numbers for the 70-79yo in Italy(6%) and China (8%) have suffered the same error.  Those numbers assume everyone with the disease that hasn't died will survive.   I wish it were true, but  it won't be.  Those numbers will climb.   For China, the widely-circulated, miscalculated CFR at the time was 2.3%.  Now, if you do the same miscalculation, you come up with 4.8%.  Does that suggest the 8% CFR for 70-79 should be about 16%?  I really don't have the numbers.

If the early (both China & Italy) demographics holds and the majority (China: 512 out of 1023 as of 11 Feb) of deaths occur in the 70+ age group (7% of the Chinese population), it is probably going to be really bad for seniors.  It doesn't matter how many kids get sick.

I have not found demographic numbers that give the deaths & discharges per age group for any where.

[akiddoc]

To that end, [the County of] Santa Clara is banning events with more than 1,000 attendants through early April. As this ESPN story notes, that makes it unclear whether the Sharks' home games will be played in an empty arena when they return from a three-game road trip late next week. Is it just me, or does that concern suddenly seem like someone playing a pretty dang freakin' tiny violin?

Well if the ban continues until next fall, at least Stanford Football won't be affected. . . .

Outdoor proximity is less of an issue that indoor proximity, but it can get pretty darn cozy on the concourse.

[akiddoc]

To that end, [the County of] Santa Clara is banning events with more than 1,000 attendants through early April. As this ESPN story notes, that makes it unclear whether the Sharks' home games will be played in an empty arena when they return from a three-game road trip late next week. Is it just me, or does that concern suddenly seem like someone playing a pretty dang freakin' tiny violin?

Well if the ban continues until next fall, at least Stanford Football won't be affected. . . .

Outdoor proximity is less of an issue that indoor proximity, but it can get pretty darn cozy on the concourse.

[burger]

MT, people have analysed data from China the right way--using statistics to take into account the time to death and the time to recovery as well as asymptomatic cases.  And they have found numbers in the ballpark of South Korea's (I think it was like 1.5% overall and higher with age).  I'll try to find the study when I'm on my computer tomorrow.

None of the other "incorrect" mortality estimates  are really far off from that one.  So I wouldn't just reject them out of hand.

[burger]

MT, people have analysed data from China the right way--using statistics to take into account the time to death and the time to recovery as well as asymptomatic cases.  And they have found numbers in the ballpark of South Korea's (I think it was like 1.5% overall and higher with age).  I'll try to find the study when I'm on my computer tomorrow.

None of the other "incorrect" mortality estimates  are really far off from that one.  So I wouldn't just reject them out of hand.

[chrisk]

Even if Stanford proposed to play the NCAA women's games with nobody in attendance, I could see the other teams objecting to coming to Santa Clara County for one, and not being allowed to bring any of their families to the game.

[chrisk]

Even if Stanford proposed to play the NCAA women's games with nobody in attendance, I could see the other teams objecting to coming to Santa Clara County for one, and not being allowed to bring any of their families to the game.

[76lsjumb]

Looks like it's time for C.al to return the favor.  Haas Pavilion, here we come... [Last I checked, it was located in Alameda County]

[76lsjumb]

Looks like it's time for C.al to return the favor.  Haas Pavilion, here we come... [Last I checked, it was located in Alameda County]

[BostonCard]

we changed to “work from home if you can”.  It’s a bit scary and inconvenient, but the social distancing could save hundreds of lives.  Even if it just flattens the epidemic curve and buys time so that hospitals aren’t overwhelmed, it will have done its job.  But we probably need to do more, including cancelling school for a while.

BC

[BostonCard]

we changed to “work from home if you can”.  It’s a bit scary and inconvenient, but the social distancing could save hundreds of lives.  Even if it just flattens the epidemic curve and buys time so that hospitals aren’t overwhelmed, it will have done its job.  But we probably need to do more, including cancelling school for a while.

BC

[2006alum]

Looks like it's time for C.al to return the favor.  Haas Pavilion, here we come... [Last I checked, it was located in Alameda County]

Santa Clara vs. Alameda vs. California vs. New York is all going to be an irrelevant distinction before any of these games is actually played. Italy went from its first diagnosed case in Lombardy to closing the entire country in a little over three weeks (Feb. 16 to March 10). The first unknown origin case in California was diagnosed on Feb. 26, ten days behind Italy. We're a much bigger country, so the spread will be slower, but it seems like it's just a matter of time barring really strict social distancing/isolation measures.

[2006alum]

Looks like it's time for C.al to return the favor.  Haas Pavilion, here we come... [Last I checked, it was located in Alameda County]

Santa Clara vs. Alameda vs. California vs. New York is all going to be an irrelevant distinction before any of these games is actually played. Italy went from its first diagnosed case in Lombardy to closing the entire country in a little over three weeks (Feb. 16 to March 10). The first unknown origin case in California was diagnosed on Feb. 26, ten days behind Italy. We're a much bigger country, so the spread will be slower, but it seems like it's just a matter of time barring really strict social distancing/isolation measures.

[chrisk]

Looks like it's time for C.al to return the favor.  Haas Pavilion, here we come... [Last I checked, it was located in Alameda County]

Santa Clara vs. Alameda vs. California vs. New York is all going to be an irrelevant distinction before any of these games is actually played. Italy went from its first diagnosed case in Lombardy to closing the entire country in a little over three weeks (Feb. 16 to March 10). The first unknown origin case in California was diagnosed on Feb. 26, ten days behind Italy. We're a much bigger country, so the spread will be slower, but it seems like it's just a matter of time barring really strict social distancing/isolation measures.

I could see the NCAA being able to push through a no attendance policy for the women, but there would be much more uproar about the men and they couldn’t have a separate policy for men and women. I can’t really see the games being canceled except as a last resort. After all, having the games on TV would help keep people in their houses.

[chrisk]

Looks like it's time for C.al to return the favor.  Haas Pavilion, here we come... [Last I checked, it was located in Alameda County]

Santa Clara vs. Alameda vs. California vs. New York is all going to be an irrelevant distinction before any of these games is actually played. Italy went from its first diagnosed case in Lombardy to closing the entire country in a little over three weeks (Feb. 16 to March 10). The first unknown origin case in California was diagnosed on Feb. 26, ten days behind Italy. We're a much bigger country, so the spread will be slower, but it seems like it's just a matter of time barring really strict social distancing/isolation measures.

I could see the NCAA being able to push through a no attendance policy for the women, but there would be much more uproar about the men and they couldn’t have a separate policy for men and women. I can’t really see the games being canceled except as a last resort. After all, having the games on TV would help keep people in their houses.

[JJJ]

Instructors told to be ready for first two weeks of Spring Quarter to be online. (Would be consistent with athletic and large event restrictions until mid-April):

https://www.stanforddaily.com/2020/03/09...g-quarter/

[JJJ]

Instructors told to be ready for first two weeks of Spring Quarter to be online. (Would be consistent with athletic and large event restrictions until mid-April):

https://www.stanforddaily.com/2020/03/09...g-quarter/

[OutsiderFan]

Personally, I don’t care about the CFR hardly at all. It looks like oldest people will die, nature’s way of thinning the herd. Especially good for the species at the top of the food chain to experience.

My real concern is the Ro, the 15-20% hospitalization rate and preserving our medical system. Yes, flattening the curve so cases don’t overwhelm hospitals and health care workers. The only way to do this is by shutting down everything like Italy has.

The sports leagues saying no reporters in locker rooms is like trying to put out a 4 alarm fire with a garden hose. Just a ridiculous half-measure of the sort that will not flatten the curve.

Saw a great quote yesterday. The greatest failure of humans is an inability to grasp exponential growth. It doesn’t ever look like much until you are basically overwhelmed and it is too late to act.

[OutsiderFan]

Personally, I don’t care about the CFR hardly at all. It looks like oldest people will die, nature’s way of thinning the herd. Especially good for the species at the top of the food chain to experience.

My real concern is the Ro, the 15-20% hospitalization rate and preserving our medical system. Yes, flattening the curve so cases don’t overwhelm hospitals and health care workers. The only way to do this is by shutting down everything like Italy has.

The sports leagues saying no reporters in locker rooms is like trying to put out a 4 alarm fire with a garden hose. Just a ridiculous half-measure of the sort that will not flatten the curve.

Saw a great quote yesterday. The greatest failure of humans is an inability to grasp exponential growth. It doesn’t ever look like much until you are basically overwhelmed and it is too late to act.

[Mick]

My real concern is the Ro, the 15-20% hospitalization rate and preserving our medical system.

List of hospital beds per country.  Japan, #1 on the list at 13.3 per 1000 people.

USA, #32 at 2.77 per 1,000 people.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_OE...pital_beds

Here's hospital beds per state, using a 2.4 beds per 1,000 people figure.  California, #47 ranked state at 1.8 beds per 1,000 people. BTW, the bottom ten states are all in the West, except Maryland:

https://www.kff.org/other/state-indicato...desc%22%7D

[Mick]

My real concern is the Ro, the 15-20% hospitalization rate and preserving our medical system.

List of hospital beds per country.  Japan, #1 on the list at 13.3 per 1000 people.

USA, #32 at 2.77 per 1,000 people.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_OE...pital_beds

Here's hospital beds per state, using a 2.4 beds per 1,000 people figure.  California, #47 ranked state at 1.8 beds per 1,000 people. BTW, the bottom ten states are all in the West, except Maryland:

https://www.kff.org/other/state-indicato...desc%22%7D

[Mick]

we changed to “work from home if you can”.  It’s a bit scary and inconvenient, but the social distancing could save hundreds of lives.  Even if it just flattens the epidemic curve and buys time so that hospitals aren’t overwhelmed, it will have done its job.  But we probably need to do more, including cancelling school for a while.

BC

Our firm's still collecting information.  Most of us have laptops, but ALL of the secretaries use desktops.  I anticipate that we'll be told to work from home as of this Friday.

---

Instructors told to be ready for first two weeks of Spring Quarter to be online. (Would be consistent with athletic and large event restrictions until mid-April):

https://www.stanforddaily.com/2020/03/09...g-quarter/

When Harvard returns on March 23 from spring break, they'll go online as well.  Stanford, Cal, SJSU, SCU already online.

[Mick]

we changed to “work from home if you can”.  It’s a bit scary and inconvenient, but the social distancing could save hundreds of lives.  Even if it just flattens the epidemic curve and buys time so that hospitals aren’t overwhelmed, it will have done its job.  But we probably need to do more, including cancelling school for a while.

BC

Our firm's still collecting information.  Most of us have laptops, but ALL of the secretaries use desktops.  I anticipate that we'll be told to work from home as of this Friday.

---

Instructors told to be ready for first two weeks of Spring Quarter to be online. (Would be consistent with athletic and large event restrictions until mid-April):

https://www.stanforddaily.com/2020/03/09...g-quarter/

When Harvard returns on March 23 from spring break, they'll go online as well.  Stanford, Cal, SJSU, SCU already online.

[thatboy]

Off topic, but I miss the excellent civil and informative discussions like this that we used to have on the CEB.

[thatboy]

Off topic, but I miss the excellent civil and informative discussions like this that we used to have on the CEB.

[82lsju]

another site with easy to digest info on the spread of the coronavirus

https://ncov2019.live/data

---

Instructors should prepare for the “possibility that instruction in the first few weeks of spring quarter may need to be delivered online,” according to a Sunday email from Debra Satz, dean of the School of Humanities and Sciences.

https://www.stanforddaily.com/2020/03/09...g-quarter/

[82lsju]

another site with easy to digest info on the spread of the coronavirus

https://ncov2019.live/data

---

Instructors should prepare for the “possibility that instruction in the first few weeks of spring quarter may need to be delivered online,” according to a Sunday email from Debra Satz, dean of the School of Humanities and Sciences.

https://www.stanforddaily.com/2020/03/09...g-quarter/

[burger]

Harvard is telling students not to come back to campus after spring break: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/10/coronavi...break.html

I never understood why you would cancel in-person classes at a college and then let students hang out in dorms all day, which are probably good places for a disease like this one to spread.  Switching to online-only classes makes sense for commuter schools, but for schools with many students in dorms, sending them home is probably the only really effective way to keep the disease out in the long run.  I also doubt that many schools will do this.

[burger]

Harvard is telling students not to come back to campus after spring break: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/10/coronavi...break.html

I never understood why you would cancel in-person classes at a college and then let students hang out in dorms all day, which are probably good places for a disease like this one to spread.  Switching to online-only classes makes sense for commuter schools, but for schools with many students in dorms, sending them home is probably the only really effective way to keep the disease out in the long run.  I also doubt that many schools will do this.

[82lsju]

Harvard is telling students not to come back to campus after spring break: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/10/coronavi...break.html

I never understood why you would cancel in-person classes at a college and then let students hang out in dorms all day, which are probably good places for a disease like this one to spread.  Switching to online-only classes makes sense for commuter schools, but for schools with many students in dorms, sending them home is probably the only really effective way to keep the disease out in the long run.  I also doubt that many schools will do this.

although I'm not sure how easy it would be for all students to just go home instead of being at school, I know that when I was at Stanford I did not return to my Mom's home in Ohio for Spring break and going would have been an extra plane ticket for me which would not have been in my budget (or bank account).  I also wonder if Harvard will refund room and board for the days they are sending the students away from campus.

[82lsju]

Harvard is telling students not to come back to campus after spring break: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/10/coronavi...break.html

I never understood why you would cancel in-person classes at a college and then let students hang out in dorms all day, which are probably good places for a disease like this one to spread.  Switching to online-only classes makes sense for commuter schools, but for schools with many students in dorms, sending them home is probably the only really effective way to keep the disease out in the long run.  I also doubt that many schools will do this.

although I'm not sure how easy it would be for all students to just go home instead of being at school, I know that when I was at Stanford I did not return to my Mom's home in Ohio for Spring break and going would have been an extra plane ticket for me which would not have been in my budget (or bank account).  I also wonder if Harvard will refund room and board for the days they are sending the students away from campus.

[Erika]

[quote="82lsju" pid='271965' dateline='1583849865']
another site with easy to digest info on the spread of the coronavirus

https://ncov2019.live/data

---

Thanks for posting the link.  That site was started and run by a high school kid from Mercer Island (hence the "Buy Me a Cup of Coffee" button). 

I closed it and couldn't re-find it so I figured he was off doing what HS kids do...nice to see it is still active.

[Erika]

[quote="82lsju" pid='271965' dateline='1583849865']
another site with easy to digest info on the spread of the coronavirus

https://ncov2019.live/data

---

Thanks for posting the link.  That site was started and run by a high school kid from Mercer Island (hence the "Buy Me a Cup of Coffee" button). 

I closed it and couldn't re-find it so I figured he was off doing what HS kids do...nice to see it is still active.