[Farm93]

This shouldn't be hard. Of course young people think they are invincible. That's why it's up to adults to step in and protect them, not exploit them for their own gain.

And to that comment about adults...

I DEFINITELY believe at least a few coaches (pro and college) would prefer to coach a team full of players with COVID19 antibodies.

Exploiting young people for their own gain essentially describes many programs in college football at this point.

[Farm93]

This shouldn't be hard. Of course young people think they are invincible. That's why it's up to adults to step in and protect them, not exploit them for their own gain.

And to that comment about adults...

I DEFINITELY believe at least a few coaches (pro and college) would prefer to coach a team full of players with COVID19 antibodies.

Exploiting young people for their own gain essentially describes many programs in college football at this point.

[2006alum]

This shouldn't be hard. Of course young people think they are invincible. That's why it's up to adults to step in and protect them, not exploit them for their own gain.

And to that comment about adults...

I DEFINITELY believe at least a few coaches (pro and college) would prefer to coach a team full of players with COVID19 antibodies.

Exploiting young people for their own gain essentially describes many programs in college football at this point.

Relieved to see I'm not the only cynical b@stard who wonders whether some of these mass infections may not be accidental... can the virus burn through a whole team by August?

[2006alum]

This shouldn't be hard. Of course young people think they are invincible. That's why it's up to adults to step in and protect them, not exploit them for their own gain.

And to that comment about adults...

I DEFINITELY believe at least a few coaches (pro and college) would prefer to coach a team full of players with COVID19 antibodies.

Exploiting young people for their own gain essentially describes many programs in college football at this point.

Relieved to see I'm not the only cynical b@stard who wonders whether some of these mass infections may not be accidental... can the virus burn through a whole team by August?

[dabigv13]

Clemson is going to get close. 23 players infected. 5 more staff.

We will see some real shady shit if CFB actually tries to have a season this year.

[dabigv13]

Clemson is going to get close. 23 players infected. 5 more staff.

We will see some real shady shit if CFB actually tries to have a season this year.

[fullmetal]

I hope all these (college football) kids pull through, but the odds are that at least some will experienced long-term issues, and they should not be the sacrificial lambs on the altar of college football.

[fullmetal]

I hope all these (college football) kids pull through, but the odds are that at least some will experienced long-term issues, and they should not be the sacrificial lambs on the altar of college football.

[OutsiderFan]

It sure appears like these players acquired the virus off campus, so can’t blame the football programs at this point. So an argument could be made that they are safer on campus under supervision. Of course, going back to one of my earlier posts, it still seems incredibly cavalier to be thinking this virus is just the flu, guys will be sick for a week and be good as new.

One of the more concerning effects of Covid-19, even aside from lung damage is acute fatigue syndrome, that has been reported with it, like an autoimmune disease. Not to be too dramatic, but Clemson might have seen its championship dreams die this season with that many players having this virus.

Still, to me, the idea of playing college sports is just plain irresponsible given the scale of the pandemic and  what we don’t know about long term impact from having SARS-CoV-2.

[OutsiderFan]

It sure appears like these players acquired the virus off campus, so can’t blame the football programs at this point. So an argument could be made that they are safer on campus under supervision. Of course, going back to one of my earlier posts, it still seems incredibly cavalier to be thinking this virus is just the flu, guys will be sick for a week and be good as new.

One of the more concerning effects of Covid-19, even aside from lung damage is acute fatigue syndrome, that has been reported with it, like an autoimmune disease. Not to be too dramatic, but Clemson might have seen its championship dreams die this season with that many players having this virus.

Still, to me, the idea of playing college sports is just plain irresponsible given the scale of the pandemic and  what we don’t know about long term impact from having SARS-CoV-2.

[Genuine Realist]

It was an independent risk factor for patients under 60, and even worse if morbidly obese. That being said, severe outcomes for all patients in their teens and 20s is low, and probably lower for younger 20s than older 20s. 

My anecdotal experience has been that the younger covid patients who are on vents in the ICU long enough to need trachs, have all been obese. These have ranged from older 20s to 40s.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lance...2/fulltext

How many younger (under. 50) patients on vents have you had?

[Genuine Realist]

It was an independent risk factor for patients under 60, and even worse if morbidly obese. That being said, severe outcomes for all patients in their teens and 20s is low, and probably lower for younger 20s than older 20s. 

My anecdotal experience has been that the younger covid patients who are on vents in the ICU long enough to need trachs, have all been obese. These have ranged from older 20s to 40s.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lance...2/fulltext

How many younger (under. 50) patients on vents have you had?

[Farm93]

It sure appears like these players acquired the virus off campus, so can’t blame the football programs at this point. So an argument could be made that they are safer on campus under supervision. Of course, going back to one of my earlier posts, it still seems incredibly cavalier to be thinking this virus is just the flu, guys will be sick for a week and be good as new.

One of the more concerning effects of Covid-19, even aside from lung damage is acute fatigue syndrome, that has been reported with it, like an autoimmune disease. Not to be too dramatic, but Clemson might have seen its championship dreams die this season with that many players having this virus.

Still, to me, the idea of playing college sports is just plain irresponsible given the scale of the pandemic and  what we don’t know about long term impact from having SARS-CoV-2.

Plenty of kids from the nearby JuCos to fill in the gaps.   Kidding...just kidding...

The number of under 25 getting these medical issues is not that common.  If 21 or 22 of the 23 are OK then Clemson will be stronger for the exposure.

If there is a season, and I tend to doubt it, a lot of players will get the virus in their season so this isn't really a now vs never situation.  It is a now vs later situation.  And I personally would rather get the virus in June while the U's med center is far from capacity than turn positive in October while in a hotel for a road game. 
  
For all of those teams that fly coach I can't imagine they could travel on planes, navigate through airports, eat at restaurants, stay at hotels and manage to stay virus-free.   In a lot of places in the USA people don't even need to wear masks in those service jobs.   These college athletes are going to get exposed to people shedding the virus if they are circulating around the USA between August and December.

It is going to be a mess.    It just doesn't seem like it will happen. 

I can even imagine some schools will cancel everything except college football while claiming State U needs to keep playing football for the good of the state economy.  In some states that will literally be true, and yes I am looking at you Alabama.

[Farm93]

It sure appears like these players acquired the virus off campus, so can’t blame the football programs at this point. So an argument could be made that they are safer on campus under supervision. Of course, going back to one of my earlier posts, it still seems incredibly cavalier to be thinking this virus is just the flu, guys will be sick for a week and be good as new.

One of the more concerning effects of Covid-19, even aside from lung damage is acute fatigue syndrome, that has been reported with it, like an autoimmune disease. Not to be too dramatic, but Clemson might have seen its championship dreams die this season with that many players having this virus.

Still, to me, the idea of playing college sports is just plain irresponsible given the scale of the pandemic and  what we don’t know about long term impact from having SARS-CoV-2.

Plenty of kids from the nearby JuCos to fill in the gaps.   Kidding...just kidding...

The number of under 25 getting these medical issues is not that common.  If 21 or 22 of the 23 are OK then Clemson will be stronger for the exposure.

If there is a season, and I tend to doubt it, a lot of players will get the virus in their season so this isn't really a now vs never situation.  It is a now vs later situation.  And I personally would rather get the virus in June while the U's med center is far from capacity than turn positive in October while in a hotel for a road game. 
  
For all of those teams that fly coach I can't imagine they could travel on planes, navigate through airports, eat at restaurants, stay at hotels and manage to stay virus-free.   In a lot of places in the USA people don't even need to wear masks in those service jobs.   These college athletes are going to get exposed to people shedding the virus if they are circulating around the USA between August and December.

It is going to be a mess.    It just doesn't seem like it will happen. 

I can even imagine some schools will cancel everything except college football while claiming State U needs to keep playing football for the good of the state economy.  In some states that will literally be true, and yes I am looking at you Alabama.

[fullmetal]

Don't get sick in July, ever.  Don't put yourself in a position to need a hospital in July of any year.

[fullmetal]

Don't get sick in July, ever.  Don't put yourself in a position to need a hospital in July of any year.

[Farm93]

I know MDs and key staff try to take vacations in July and therefore July could be a bad time to get sick. 

However this year is different because there really is no reason to vacation. 

Can’t fly to Europe or Asia.  Those summer med conferences are all cancelled.  

Is there a specific anti-July element that will hold in 2020?

Would not change my opinion anyway.  Since most of these kids would not need hospitalization.  They would be easily isolated in a largely empty campus for 3 weeks.  

That’s a lot better than a positive test in a hotel in October.  Then you are stuck in a hotel or some special COVID structure in a distant town for weeks while your teammates and coaches fly home.  

Whatever your concern for getting sick in your home town in July is trumped by the benefits of friends, family, teammates and coaches on your campus vs an out of state isolation unit with virtually no support in October.

[Farm93]

I know MDs and key staff try to take vacations in July and therefore July could be a bad time to get sick. 

However this year is different because there really is no reason to vacation. 

Can’t fly to Europe or Asia.  Those summer med conferences are all cancelled.  

Is there a specific anti-July element that will hold in 2020?

Would not change my opinion anyway.  Since most of these kids would not need hospitalization.  They would be easily isolated in a largely empty campus for 3 weeks.  

That’s a lot better than a positive test in a hotel in October.  Then you are stuck in a hotel or some special COVID structure in a distant town for weeks while your teammates and coaches fly home.  

Whatever your concern for getting sick in your home town in July is trumped by the benefits of friends, family, teammates and coaches on your campus vs an out of state isolation unit with virtually no support in October.

[dabigv13]

July is when new interns/residents start. It's most applicable to academic hospitals.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_effect

[dabigv13]

July is when new interns/residents start. It's most applicable to academic hospitals.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_effect

[JustAnotherFan]

July is when new interns/residents start. It's most applicable to academic hospitals.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_effect

This is why I appreciate this board. I'm learning new stuff all the time.

[JustAnotherFan]

July is when new interns/residents start. It's most applicable to academic hospitals.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_effect

This is why I appreciate this board. I'm learning new stuff all the time.

[Goose]

Then you are stuck in a hotel or some special COVID structure in a distant town for weeks

Yep.

while your teammates and coaches fly home.

Not all of them. The ones considered "close contacts", like say your position group and S&C staff, should end up quarantined too. It may be that the county involved won't have the guts to do it, but if is an away game, I would hope/expect they would =).

"We got beat 37 to 0, but their wide receivers won't be playing for two weeks. No, not the starters, all of them"

[Goose]

Then you are stuck in a hotel or some special COVID structure in a distant town for weeks

Yep.

while your teammates and coaches fly home.

Not all of them. The ones considered "close contacts", like say your position group and S&C staff, should end up quarantined too. It may be that the county involved won't have the guts to do it, but if is an away game, I would hope/expect they would =).

"We got beat 37 to 0, but their wide receivers won't be playing for two weeks. No, not the starters, all of them"

[OutsiderFan]

I'm really disgusted by people surrendering to this virus. This is a global health emergency, and we have how many different jurisdictions, between countries, states, provinces, counties, and cities, all subscribing different kinds and levels of mitigation? Taking into account, some of them mirror each other, there still must be literally dozens. This is no way to stop a virus that requires close human contact to spread.

It does not have to be inevitable that everyone gets infected.  We could actually try wiping it out like New Zealand has practically done.

[OutsiderFan]

I'm really disgusted by people surrendering to this virus. This is a global health emergency, and we have how many different jurisdictions, between countries, states, provinces, counties, and cities, all subscribing different kinds and levels of mitigation? Taking into account, some of them mirror each other, there still must be literally dozens. This is no way to stop a virus that requires close human contact to spread.

It does not have to be inevitable that everyone gets infected.  We could actually try wiping it out like New Zealand has practically done.

[Goose]

It does not have to be inevitable that everyone gets infected.  We could actually try wiping it out like New Zealand has practically done.

Actually OF, I think New Zealand demonstrates the futility of expecting to wipe out the virus. There are too many places in the world where the virus is/has been in a state of community spread. Many of those places do not have the resources or will to contain the virus. New Zealand has basically closed off contact with the outside world. However, even under those extremely restrictive conditions the virus got through. New Zealand was fortunate the people who brought it in actually got sick. It may not always be that way. Then, you have an outbreak. Ditto China.

Taiwan has a mandatory two week quarantine and extremely effective tracking and tracing. Even they realize that the virus isn't going away, so containment will continue to be necessary. Containment is possible without full shutdown. It takes a committed governmental effort at the local and state level, as well as the Federal authorities controlling the borders "appropriately". That may cut the number of cases to a very small number, but there will always be some that get through. In short, it is too late to eliminate this virus. We either come up with an effective program to contain it or suffer the economic and social costs of not doing so. Unfortunately, it appears we in the US are going with the latter.

[Goose]

It does not have to be inevitable that everyone gets infected.  We could actually try wiping it out like New Zealand has practically done.

Actually OF, I think New Zealand demonstrates the futility of expecting to wipe out the virus. There are too many places in the world where the virus is/has been in a state of community spread. Many of those places do not have the resources or will to contain the virus. New Zealand has basically closed off contact with the outside world. However, even under those extremely restrictive conditions the virus got through. New Zealand was fortunate the people who brought it in actually got sick. It may not always be that way. Then, you have an outbreak. Ditto China.

Taiwan has a mandatory two week quarantine and extremely effective tracking and tracing. Even they realize that the virus isn't going away, so containment will continue to be necessary. Containment is possible without full shutdown. It takes a committed governmental effort at the local and state level, as well as the Federal authorities controlling the borders "appropriately". That may cut the number of cases to a very small number, but there will always be some that get through. In short, it is too late to eliminate this virus. We either come up with an effective program to contain it or suffer the economic and social costs of not doing so. Unfortunately, it appears we in the US are going with the latter.

[OutsiderFan]

If I continue taking precautions to avoid getting Covid-19, I'm not going to get it. The same can be said for the vast majority of people. The only reason more people aren't acting like me is because they are ignorant to how bad it could be to actually get the virus. 

I don't lock myself in my house. I go to stores to get things and wear a mask any time around people in or outside. But I don't hang out with others for a very long time either. Nor am I hopping on an airplane.  Could I get infected even by limiting risk?  Sure I could.  But CT reported 81 Cases Thursday and 41 Friday.  We have done the work and made the effort to mitigate spread in this state and it has worked. So this notion that it is inevitable that we get overrun by the virus is not supported by reality.  You have to actively choose to take risks that promote virus spread for it to spread.

[OutsiderFan]

If I continue taking precautions to avoid getting Covid-19, I'm not going to get it. The same can be said for the vast majority of people. The only reason more people aren't acting like me is because they are ignorant to how bad it could be to actually get the virus. 

I don't lock myself in my house. I go to stores to get things and wear a mask any time around people in or outside. But I don't hang out with others for a very long time either. Nor am I hopping on an airplane.  Could I get infected even by limiting risk?  Sure I could.  But CT reported 81 Cases Thursday and 41 Friday.  We have done the work and made the effort to mitigate spread in this state and it has worked. So this notion that it is inevitable that we get overrun by the virus is not supported by reality.  You have to actively choose to take risks that promote virus spread for it to spread.

[Farm93]

I'm really disgusted by people surrendering to this virus. This is a global health emergency, and we have how many different jurisdictions, between countries, states, provinces, counties, and cities, all subscribing different kinds and levels of mitigation? Taking into account, some of them mirror each other, there still must be literally dozens. This is no way to stop a virus that requires close human contact to spread.

It does not have to be inevitable that everyone gets infected.  We could actually try wiping it out like New Zealand has practically done.

Right - The USA could fight this like New Zealand, Taiwan, Thailand, South Korea, Canada or even like USA 1945-2016.

But we all live in Trumplandia 2017-2020.   Here in 2020 he absolutely wants the citizens to ignore the COVID risks and science and get back to normal asap.  That view of COVID is wildly inconsistent with what is happening in those other countries.

The problem for college teams will be that travel for road events.   Even if their region and campus are doing things like South Korea, Japan, Thailand, Taiwan and New Zealand it could all be ruined if the people in the next row of the plane are from a state where PPE has been deemed uncool and/or unpatriotic.

COVID will feast on the weakest links in our COVID defense.  Given that our POTUS advocates that thousands crowd into an indoor arena just to chant his name the weakest links in our COVID defense are pretty weak.   

Would love to imagine a world where we all get to attend college football games in 2020, but that's just not happening in CA this year.  My guess is the NCAA will cancel everything in part because of what has already happened with Alabama and Clemson active virus testing.   (Can't wait to see how many of their players already had antibodies.   Trust that will come soon)    

FWIW - Even if we embraced New Zealand like actions, that process took a few months.   At this point we are too close to the start of the season.   If we actually tried wiping it out that would have to include cancelling the college sports for the fall season.

[Farm93]

I'm really disgusted by people surrendering to this virus. This is a global health emergency, and we have how many different jurisdictions, between countries, states, provinces, counties, and cities, all subscribing different kinds and levels of mitigation? Taking into account, some of them mirror each other, there still must be literally dozens. This is no way to stop a virus that requires close human contact to spread.

It does not have to be inevitable that everyone gets infected.  We could actually try wiping it out like New Zealand has practically done.

Right - The USA could fight this like New Zealand, Taiwan, Thailand, South Korea, Canada or even like USA 1945-2016.

But we all live in Trumplandia 2017-2020.   Here in 2020 he absolutely wants the citizens to ignore the COVID risks and science and get back to normal asap.  That view of COVID is wildly inconsistent with what is happening in those other countries.

The problem for college teams will be that travel for road events.   Even if their region and campus are doing things like South Korea, Japan, Thailand, Taiwan and New Zealand it could all be ruined if the people in the next row of the plane are from a state where PPE has been deemed uncool and/or unpatriotic.

COVID will feast on the weakest links in our COVID defense.  Given that our POTUS advocates that thousands crowd into an indoor arena just to chant his name the weakest links in our COVID defense are pretty weak.   

Would love to imagine a world where we all get to attend college football games in 2020, but that's just not happening in CA this year.  My guess is the NCAA will cancel everything in part because of what has already happened with Alabama and Clemson active virus testing.   (Can't wait to see how many of their players already had antibodies.   Trust that will come soon)    

FWIW - Even if we embraced New Zealand like actions, that process took a few months.   At this point we are too close to the start of the season.   If we actually tried wiping it out that would have to include cancelling the college sports for the fall season.

[Softball Fan]

If I continue taking precautions to avoid getting Covid-19, I'm not going to get it. The same can be said for the vast majority of people. The only reason more people aren't acting like me is because they are ignorant to how bad it could be to actually get the virus. 

I don't lock myself in my house. I go to stores to get things and wear a mask any time around people in or outside. But I don't hang out with others for a very long time either. Nor am I hopping on an airplane.  Could I get infected even by limiting risk?  Sure I could.  But CT reported 81 Cases Thursday and 41 Friday.  We have done the work and made the effort to mitigate spread in this state and it has worked. So this notion that it is inevitable that we get overrun by the virus is not supported by reality.  You have to actively choose to take risks that promote virus spread for it to spread.

I have heard so much conflicting information.  I have heard the mask is almost entirely for a person not to spread it to others.   But it does very little if anything to prevent someone from getting the virus.  The theory I heard is the virus in itself is so much smaller than the holes between threads of any mask material that there is no protection. 

Be interested to hear if any study has made a definitive conclusion about wearing masks.

Reading this thread has changed my opinion from optimistic to pessimistic about fall sports. I don't see how when full practice with pads starts that everyone who hasn't had it yet won't get it.

[Softball Fan]

If I continue taking precautions to avoid getting Covid-19, I'm not going to get it. The same can be said for the vast majority of people. The only reason more people aren't acting like me is because they are ignorant to how bad it could be to actually get the virus. 

I don't lock myself in my house. I go to stores to get things and wear a mask any time around people in or outside. But I don't hang out with others for a very long time either. Nor am I hopping on an airplane.  Could I get infected even by limiting risk?  Sure I could.  But CT reported 81 Cases Thursday and 41 Friday.  We have done the work and made the effort to mitigate spread in this state and it has worked. So this notion that it is inevitable that we get overrun by the virus is not supported by reality.  You have to actively choose to take risks that promote virus spread for it to spread.

I have heard so much conflicting information.  I have heard the mask is almost entirely for a person not to spread it to others.   But it does very little if anything to prevent someone from getting the virus.  The theory I heard is the virus in itself is so much smaller than the holes between threads of any mask material that there is no protection. 

Be interested to hear if any study has made a definitive conclusion about wearing masks.

Reading this thread has changed my opinion from optimistic to pessimistic about fall sports. I don't see how when full practice with pads starts that everyone who hasn't had it yet won't get it.

[BostonCard]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/traderHMS/status/1274147980254347265?s=20[/tweet]

Even if you buy the argument that the US's initial response was no worse than Europe's, it doesn't explain how Europe was able to drop the number of COVID-19 cases by almost a factor of 10 while the US only managed to reduce case numbers by a quarter (and cases look like they are starting to rise again).

BC

[BostonCard]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/traderHMS/status/1274147980254347265?s=20[/tweet]

Even if you buy the argument that the US's initial response was no worse than Europe's, it doesn't explain how Europe was able to drop the number of COVID-19 cases by almost a factor of 10 while the US only managed to reduce case numbers by a quarter (and cases look like they are starting to rise again).

BC

[Goose]

Right - The USA could fight this like New Zealand, Taiwan, Thailand, South Korea, Canada or even like USA 1945-2016.

I feel I must strongly point out (yet again) that the USA was in no position to contain this kind of a virus as early as 2008, if not before. The CDC was no better prepared in 2008 than they were in 2020. Their own documents that I have already posted links to on this site enumerate their problems. The 6000 USPHS officers are completely inadequate to monitor the border of the US (if they were asked to do so), let alone the entire country. Worse still, the state and local health services were completely incapable of tracking and tracing this kind of an outbreak without a shelter in place, and haven't generally demonstrated the ability to do so since. In short, we couldn't do what Taiwan, South Korea or Thailand did because we weren't prepared. The idea that "in the good old days" we could have is simply wrong.

While I too feel that the POTUS is behaving like the idiot he is, it is important that we all realize that going forward we are going to need a stronger and better epidemic response team at the Federal, state and especially local level. New Zealand had this capability, although they also had the luxury of not having rampant community spread as soon as most other nations. Avoiding that allowed them to root out and contain the disease. As with Korea, China, HK, Taiwan and everywhere else it will be an ongoing battle. How long it will go on is unknown. Even with a vaccine, it is probable that outbreaks will still occur. It is also certain that a novel virus will appear in the future. Let's be ready next time.

Unfortunately, the USA hasn't been developing the team that will be necessary for a safe, phased opening. Our politicians at the state and local level simply aren't willing to take the political heat that will be required to hold off on opening until we are actually ready. This is partially due to the fact they massively under-reacted initially and didn't  build up the structure to do the necessary containment quickly. It was predictable that the non-compliant impatient USA population wasn't going to wait very long, and speed mattered. It didn't happen, and here we are. Worse still, I see no evidence that state and counties are willing/able to actually enforce quarantines on close contacts of those who have tested positive for the virus. Failing that, we are not going to contain the virus IMHO.

I have no idea if we will see football games with spectators allowed next fall. If we do, it will be for one of two reasons. Either we have basically given up on containment, or our tracking and tracing capability (and quarantine capability) has improved to the point we can tolerate the increased cases from large crowds.

---

Even if you buy the argument that the US's initial response was no worse than Europe's, it doesn't explain how Europe was able to drop the number of COVID-19 cases by almost a factor of 10 while the US only managed to reduce case numbers by a quarter (and cases look like they are starting to rise again).


BC

Very true, and it is not clear (at least to me) why. Italy did have a period of plateau while the North dropped and the South rose. That said, even if one looks at SCC, the residual new case load  isn't dropping to near zero. Supposedly, they are "keeping up" with tracking and tracing all the new cases. Where are the new infections coming from?

FWIW in Italy they did enforce the SIP by stopping cars on the roads. If you were more than 5 k from home you got a ticket and were sent home. Nothing like that ever went on here. Is that the big difference?

[Goose]

Right - The USA could fight this like New Zealand, Taiwan, Thailand, South Korea, Canada or even like USA 1945-2016.

I feel I must strongly point out (yet again) that the USA was in no position to contain this kind of a virus as early as 2008, if not before. The CDC was no better prepared in 2008 than they were in 2020. Their own documents that I have already posted links to on this site enumerate their problems. The 6000 USPHS officers are completely inadequate to monitor the border of the US (if they were asked to do so), let alone the entire country. Worse still, the state and local health services were completely incapable of tracking and tracing this kind of an outbreak without a shelter in place, and haven't generally demonstrated the ability to do so since. In short, we couldn't do what Taiwan, South Korea or Thailand did because we weren't prepared. The idea that "in the good old days" we could have is simply wrong.

While I too feel that the POTUS is behaving like the idiot he is, it is important that we all realize that going forward we are going to need a stronger and better epidemic response team at the Federal, state and especially local level. New Zealand had this capability, although they also had the luxury of not having rampant community spread as soon as most other nations. Avoiding that allowed them to root out and contain the disease. As with Korea, China, HK, Taiwan and everywhere else it will be an ongoing battle. How long it will go on is unknown. Even with a vaccine, it is probable that outbreaks will still occur. It is also certain that a novel virus will appear in the future. Let's be ready next time.

Unfortunately, the USA hasn't been developing the team that will be necessary for a safe, phased opening. Our politicians at the state and local level simply aren't willing to take the political heat that will be required to hold off on opening until we are actually ready. This is partially due to the fact they massively under-reacted initially and didn't  build up the structure to do the necessary containment quickly. It was predictable that the non-compliant impatient USA population wasn't going to wait very long, and speed mattered. It didn't happen, and here we are. Worse still, I see no evidence that state and counties are willing/able to actually enforce quarantines on close contacts of those who have tested positive for the virus. Failing that, we are not going to contain the virus IMHO.

I have no idea if we will see football games with spectators allowed next fall. If we do, it will be for one of two reasons. Either we have basically given up on containment, or our tracking and tracing capability (and quarantine capability) has improved to the point we can tolerate the increased cases from large crowds.

---

Even if you buy the argument that the US's initial response was no worse than Europe's, it doesn't explain how Europe was able to drop the number of COVID-19 cases by almost a factor of 10 while the US only managed to reduce case numbers by a quarter (and cases look like they are starting to rise again).


BC

Very true, and it is not clear (at least to me) why. Italy did have a period of plateau while the North dropped and the South rose. That said, even if one looks at SCC, the residual new case load  isn't dropping to near zero. Supposedly, they are "keeping up" with tracking and tracing all the new cases. Where are the new infections coming from?

FWIW in Italy they did enforce the SIP by stopping cars on the roads. If you were more than 5 k from home you got a ticket and were sent home. Nothing like that ever went on here. Is that the big difference?

[Softball Fan]

That graph of U.S. versus EU is interesting.  If both are doing approximately the same amount of testing along that timeline it would be an apples to apples comparison.  The decrease in the EU when they are probably increasing the number of tests performed is impressive.

IMO a revealing graph would be the percentage of positive results to the total amount of tests performed.

[Softball Fan]

That graph of U.S. versus EU is interesting.  If both are doing approximately the same amount of testing along that timeline it would be an apples to apples comparison.  The decrease in the EU when they are probably increasing the number of tests performed is impressive.

IMO a revealing graph would be the percentage of positive results to the total amount of tests performed.