[Snorlax94]

Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, tells CNN's Chief Medical Correspondent Dr. Sanjay Gupta, "Unless players are essentially in a bubble -- insulated from the community and they are tested nearly every day -- it would be very hard to see how football is able to be played this fall. If there is a second wave, which is certainly a possibility and which would be complicated by the predictable flu season, football may not happen this year."

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/18/us/footba...index.html

[Snorlax94]

Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, tells CNN's Chief Medical Correspondent Dr. Sanjay Gupta, "Unless players are essentially in a bubble -- insulated from the community and they are tested nearly every day -- it would be very hard to see how football is able to be played this fall. If there is a second wave, which is certainly a possibility and which would be complicated by the predictable flu season, football may not happen this year."

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/18/us/footba...index.html

[burger]

Related: 13 Texas players and 8 Kansas players test positive so far.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/st...oronavirus

My guess: college sports will be cancelled.  Maybe the NBA gets by by quarantining everyone.  No other sports will make it through a full season in 2020.

[burger]

Related: 13 Texas players and 8 Kansas players test positive so far.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/st...oronavirus

My guess: college sports will be cancelled.  Maybe the NBA gets by by quarantining everyone.  No other sports will make it through a full season in 2020.

[dabigv13]

It looks like the European soccer leagues have made it work without fans thus far. The virus is also presently under much better control in most of Europe. 

I agree with Fauci that probably the only way to make sports work is with a bubble type system.

College sports have the advantage of being presumably an even younger and less susceptible population than pro leagues, but they won't have the same testing ability or quarantine capability. Also there are just so many more teams. Seems doubtful you could really have a full season.

[dabigv13]

It looks like the European soccer leagues have made it work without fans thus far. The virus is also presently under much better control in most of Europe. 

I agree with Fauci that probably the only way to make sports work is with a bubble type system.

College sports have the advantage of being presumably an even younger and less susceptible population than pro leagues, but they won't have the same testing ability or quarantine capability. Also there are just so many more teams. Seems doubtful you could really have a full season.

[fullmetal]

Young people generally won't die, but sometimes there are fates that approach the cliff's edge...

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus...t-chicago/

The patient is in her 20s.

[fullmetal]

Young people generally won't die, but sometimes there are fates that approach the cliff's edge...

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus...t-chicago/

The patient is in her 20s.

[Farm93]

Ignoring revenue and budgets I started to wonder which sports could at least determine a team title winner this academic year if October and November have monthly COVID death rates around the May 2020 rate.  That's the level of the current projections, which is troubling IMHO.

For example, the best case scenario would be non-contact sports that are outdoors and that could bypass the regular season and just hold a contests over a few days to determine a champion.

Best Sports
Skiing - outdoors - competitors and teammates with adequate spacing - no modifications required.  Added bonus: masks would be easy 
Golf - outdoors - competitors and teammates could create spacing with minimal modifications.  Masks could be possible if required.
Rowing - outdoors - competitors are in different boats
Gymnastics - indoors - competitors could achieve spacing.
Rifle - I have no idea how it works in college, but spacing should be possible.  Masks should be possible too.
Swimming - indoors - competitors are spaced and could use every other lane if more space was needed.

Realistic Sports
Bowling - indoors but competitors and teammates could achieve spacing - masks are possible
Tennis - outdoors - competitors and most teammates outside of doubles could achieve spacing
Fencing - indoors but competitors could achieve spacing

Possible - 
Beach Volleyball - outdoors - but competitors at the next would be a challenge
Volleyball - indoors, no contact, but spacing would be a problem - players could wear masks
Softball - only batting would be a problem as runners are not held on base
Baseball - only a bit more difficult that softball

And then all of the rest because they are contact sports and/or the competitors could be in close proximity.
Cross Country
Field Hockey
Football
Soccer
Water Polo
Basketball
Ice Hockey
Wrestling
Lacrosse
Track & Field

I understand that if football is not possible the NCAA will likely just declare that all of the sports are cancelled because of budget concerns.   However, I really hope the NCAA might allow a few sports to at least hold post-season type activities.

Of all the sports under the NCAA umbrella - Football, basketball and wrestling are probably the worst for COVID exposure.  I just don't know if the NCAA would move forward if football & basketball are not really possible this year.

[Farm93]

Ignoring revenue and budgets I started to wonder which sports could at least determine a team title winner this academic year if October and November have monthly COVID death rates around the May 2020 rate.  That's the level of the current projections, which is troubling IMHO.

For example, the best case scenario would be non-contact sports that are outdoors and that could bypass the regular season and just hold a contests over a few days to determine a champion.

Best Sports
Skiing - outdoors - competitors and teammates with adequate spacing - no modifications required.  Added bonus: masks would be easy 
Golf - outdoors - competitors and teammates could create spacing with minimal modifications.  Masks could be possible if required.
Rowing - outdoors - competitors are in different boats
Gymnastics - indoors - competitors could achieve spacing.
Rifle - I have no idea how it works in college, but spacing should be possible.  Masks should be possible too.
Swimming - indoors - competitors are spaced and could use every other lane if more space was needed.

Realistic Sports
Bowling - indoors but competitors and teammates could achieve spacing - masks are possible
Tennis - outdoors - competitors and most teammates outside of doubles could achieve spacing
Fencing - indoors but competitors could achieve spacing

Possible - 
Beach Volleyball - outdoors - but competitors at the next would be a challenge
Volleyball - indoors, no contact, but spacing would be a problem - players could wear masks
Softball - only batting would be a problem as runners are not held on base
Baseball - only a bit more difficult that softball

And then all of the rest because they are contact sports and/or the competitors could be in close proximity.
Cross Country
Field Hockey
Football
Soccer
Water Polo
Basketball
Ice Hockey
Wrestling
Lacrosse
Track & Field

I understand that if football is not possible the NCAA will likely just declare that all of the sports are cancelled because of budget concerns.   However, I really hope the NCAA might allow a few sports to at least hold post-season type activities.

Of all the sports under the NCAA umbrella - Football, basketball and wrestling are probably the worst for COVID exposure.  I just don't know if the NCAA would move forward if football & basketball are not really possible this year.

[dabigv13]

I've stated before on this board that with as many college athletes as there are, we should expect a handful to end up in the ICU or even worse. Given the known risks of obesity, would guess offensive and defensive lineman most at risk of bad outcomes. Maybe more at risk of transmission too since they are face to face every play in ways that other positions aren't. 

Probably just a few nationwide though. Really the bigger risk for public health is that these teams become foci of onward spread in their communities. That's why the bubble concept is so necessary.

[dabigv13]

I've stated before on this board that with as many college athletes as there are, we should expect a handful to end up in the ICU or even worse. Given the known risks of obesity, would guess offensive and defensive lineman most at risk of bad outcomes. Maybe more at risk of transmission too since they are face to face every play in ways that other positions aren't. 

Probably just a few nationwide though. Really the bigger risk for public health is that these teams become foci of onward spread in their communities. That's why the bubble concept is so necessary.

[82lsju]

Rowing - outdoors - competitors are in different boats

I might be a little worried if I was toward the stern in an either a four or eight person boat.

[82lsju]

Rowing - outdoors - competitors are in different boats

I might be a little worried if I was toward the stern in an either a four or eight person boat.

[akiddoc]

I've stated before on this board that with as many college athletes as there are, we should expect a handful to end up in the ICU or even worse. Given the known risks of obesity, would guess offensive and defensive lineman most at risk of bad outcomes. Maybe more at risk of transmission too since they are face to face every play in ways that other positions aren't. 

Probably just a few nationwide though. Really the bigger risk for public health is that these teams become foci of onward spread in their communities. That's why the bubble concept is so necessary.

I haven't seen anything looking at obesity in young people as a risk factor. It might be, but it very well might not be. It doesn't seem to be under age 18.

[akiddoc]

I've stated before on this board that with as many college athletes as there are, we should expect a handful to end up in the ICU or even worse. Given the known risks of obesity, would guess offensive and defensive lineman most at risk of bad outcomes. Maybe more at risk of transmission too since they are face to face every play in ways that other positions aren't. 

Probably just a few nationwide though. Really the bigger risk for public health is that these teams become foci of onward spread in their communities. That's why the bubble concept is so necessary.

I haven't seen anything looking at obesity in young people as a risk factor. It might be, but it very well might not be. It doesn't seem to be under age 18.

[dabigv13]

It was an independent risk factor for patients under 60, and even worse if morbidly obese. That being said, severe outcomes for all patients in their teens and 20s is low, and probably lower for younger 20s than older 20s. 

My anecdotal experience has been that the younger covid patients who are on vents in the ICU long enough to need trachs, have all been obese. These have ranged from older 20s to 40s.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lance...2/fulltext

[dabigv13]

It was an independent risk factor for patients under 60, and even worse if morbidly obese. That being said, severe outcomes for all patients in their teens and 20s is low, and probably lower for younger 20s than older 20s. 

My anecdotal experience has been that the younger covid patients who are on vents in the ICU long enough to need trachs, have all been obese. These have ranged from older 20s to 40s.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lance...2/fulltext

[Farm93]

Rowing - outdoors - competitors are in different boats

I might be a little worried if I was toward the stern in an either a four or eight person boat.

You could control that because the boat group would be your "household" if you will.   They would need to train together before the championship, so presumably they would be tested at the start of training.  The reason I put rowing in that category was that there would be little risk that the rowers from one boat could infect rowers in another boat.    

And unlike some other team sports you could train with the same very small group of people in your boat every day.   A person in the boat may test positive, and then that boat would be ineligible, but you wouldn't need to worry (as much) about COVID19 jumping from one rowing team to another rowing team in a race during a regatta.

[Farm93]

Rowing - outdoors - competitors are in different boats

I might be a little worried if I was toward the stern in an either a four or eight person boat.

You could control that because the boat group would be your "household" if you will.   They would need to train together before the championship, so presumably they would be tested at the start of training.  The reason I put rowing in that category was that there would be little risk that the rowers from one boat could infect rowers in another boat.    

And unlike some other team sports you could train with the same very small group of people in your boat every day.   A person in the boat may test positive, and then that boat would be ineligible, but you wouldn't need to worry (as much) about COVID19 jumping from one rowing team to another rowing team in a race during a regatta.

[OutsiderFan]

Based on what I can gather, it appears this is the situation:

- Football is moving ahead until it must be stopped
- Those who manage the sport and close to it are saying they are optimistic, but based on the fact this is qualified by "we'll see"...
- It seems most people in their gut think games will be impacted by postponements or cancellation of some sort

[OutsiderFan]

Based on what I can gather, it appears this is the situation:

- Football is moving ahead until it must be stopped
- Those who manage the sport and close to it are saying they are optimistic, but based on the fact this is qualified by "we'll see"...
- It seems most people in their gut think games will be impacted by postponements or cancellation of some sort

[OutsiderFan]

If more athletes see this, games are going to be less likely. Who the hell wants to limit their physical performance capacity, when they are using it for their livelihood and future earning potential? College Football could be putting the future earning potential of players at risk in a very irresponsible manner out of its own self-interest.

https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/long-t...s-covid-19

[OutsiderFan]

If more athletes see this, games are going to be less likely. Who the hell wants to limit their physical performance capacity, when they are using it for their livelihood and future earning potential? College Football could be putting the future earning potential of players at risk in a very irresponsible manner out of its own self-interest.

https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/long-t...s-covid-19

[dabigv13]

At least for football, I imagine the long term health effects of concussions will be much worse than that of covid. Plenty of football players haven't been dissuaded by those relatively more known long term risks, so I doubt many will forgo football due to unknown covid risks.

[dabigv13]

At least for football, I imagine the long term health effects of concussions will be much worse than that of covid. Plenty of football players haven't been dissuaded by those relatively more known long term risks, so I doubt many will forgo football due to unknown covid risks.

[OutsiderFan]

At least for football, I imagine the long term health effects of concussions will be much worse than that of covid. Plenty of football players haven't been dissuaded by those relatively more known long term risks, so I doubt many will forgo football due to unknown covid risks.

That's a fair point.  I counter by saying concussions that do long term damage won't limit the ability of athletes to perform within the next 5 years unless there is a real serious problem.  Covid-19 can degrade physical performance capacity, the thing on which these athletes are relying on for their income. In that light, it becomes much more serious. Certainly more currently pro athletes should be concerned than college athletes, but there are a number of college players planning to make a career from playing pro sports too.

[OutsiderFan]

At least for football, I imagine the long term health effects of concussions will be much worse than that of covid. Plenty of football players haven't been dissuaded by those relatively more known long term risks, so I doubt many will forgo football due to unknown covid risks.

That's a fair point.  I counter by saying concussions that do long term damage won't limit the ability of athletes to perform within the next 5 years unless there is a real serious problem.  Covid-19 can degrade physical performance capacity, the thing on which these athletes are relying on for their income. In that light, it becomes much more serious. Certainly more currently pro athletes should be concerned than college athletes, but there are a number of college players planning to make a career from playing pro sports too.

[BostonCard]

If more athletes see this, games are going to be less likely. Who the hell wants to limit their physical performance capacity, when they are using it for their livelihood and future earning potential? College Football could be putting the future earning potential of players at risk in a very irresponsible manner out of its own self-interest.

https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/long-t...s-covid-19

You've evidently never been 20 and invincible.

BC

[BostonCard]

If more athletes see this, games are going to be less likely. Who the hell wants to limit their physical performance capacity, when they are using it for their livelihood and future earning potential? College Football could be putting the future earning potential of players at risk in a very irresponsible manner out of its own self-interest.

https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/long-t...s-covid-19

You've evidently never been 20 and invincible.

BC

[OutsiderFan]

If more athletes see this, games are going to be less likely. Who the hell wants to limit their physical performance capacity, when they are using it for their livelihood and future earning potential? College Football could be putting the future earning potential of players at risk in a very irresponsible manner out of its own self-interest.

https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/long-t...s-covid-19

You've evidently never been 20 and invincible.

BC

Not during a global pandemic with a novel virus we don't understand, but have reason to believe is long term damaging to health if you survive it's initial strike.

[OutsiderFan]

If more athletes see this, games are going to be less likely. Who the hell wants to limit their physical performance capacity, when they are using it for their livelihood and future earning potential? College Football could be putting the future earning potential of players at risk in a very irresponsible manner out of its own self-interest.

https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/long-t...s-covid-19

You've evidently never been 20 and invincible.

BC

Not during a global pandemic with a novel virus we don't understand, but have reason to believe is long term damaging to health if you survive it's initial strike.

[BostonCard]

Not during a global pandemic with a novel virus we don't understand, but have reason to believe is long term damaging to health if you survive it's initial strike.

You are applying adult logic to the situation.  From the perspective of a 20 year old, they're thinking they're not going to get it... and even if they do get, they will be mostly asymptomatic, and even if they are symptomatic, they will recover quickly.  And they are mostly right.  The concept of tail risk is not one generally grasped at that age, and while you and I wouldn't view a 5% chance of winding up significantly affected by it as acceptable, that's not the calculus that's in the mind of a 20 year old.

BC

[BostonCard]

Not during a global pandemic with a novel virus we don't understand, but have reason to believe is long term damaging to health if you survive it's initial strike.

You are applying adult logic to the situation.  From the perspective of a 20 year old, they're thinking they're not going to get it... and even if they do get, they will be mostly asymptomatic, and even if they are symptomatic, they will recover quickly.  And they are mostly right.  The concept of tail risk is not one generally grasped at that age, and while you and I wouldn't view a 5% chance of winding up significantly affected by it as acceptable, that's not the calculus that's in the mind of a 20 year old.

BC

[needle]

Not during a global pandemic with a novel virus we don't understand, but have reason to believe is long term damaging to health if you survive it's initial strike.

You are applying adult logic to the situation.  From the perspective of a 20 year old, they're thinking they're not going to get it... and even if they do get, they will be mostly asymptomatic, and even if they are symptomatic, they will recover quickly.  And they are mostly right.  The concept of tail risk is not one generally grasped at that age, and while you and I wouldn't view a 5% chance of winding up significantly affected by it as acceptable, that's not the calculus that's in the mind of a 20 year old.

BC

News reports of 30 UCLA players demanding a third-party health official on hand to ensure covid safety protocols are followed.

They also want players to be able to keep their schollies if they don't return to campus (I'm a little unclear what that means).

https://www.latimes.com/sports/ucla/stor...mic-return

Not quite a boycott, tho the players say they won't take part in promotional activities if their demands aren't met. 

Some will say the players just don't trust Chip Kelly. 

But that's an overly simplistic view, imo. This is a sure sign that players know that football is pretty risky in a pandemic, and I fully expect more players on more teams to follow this example, even if they "trust" their coaches.

[needle]

Not during a global pandemic with a novel virus we don't understand, but have reason to believe is long term damaging to health if you survive it's initial strike.

You are applying adult logic to the situation.  From the perspective of a 20 year old, they're thinking they're not going to get it... and even if they do get, they will be mostly asymptomatic, and even if they are symptomatic, they will recover quickly.  And they are mostly right.  The concept of tail risk is not one generally grasped at that age, and while you and I wouldn't view a 5% chance of winding up significantly affected by it as acceptable, that's not the calculus that's in the mind of a 20 year old.

BC

News reports of 30 UCLA players demanding a third-party health official on hand to ensure covid safety protocols are followed.

They also want players to be able to keep their schollies if they don't return to campus (I'm a little unclear what that means).

https://www.latimes.com/sports/ucla/stor...mic-return

Not quite a boycott, tho the players say they won't take part in promotional activities if their demands aren't met. 

Some will say the players just don't trust Chip Kelly. 

But that's an overly simplistic view, imo. This is a sure sign that players know that football is pretty risky in a pandemic, and I fully expect more players on more teams to follow this example, even if they "trust" their coaches.

[Farm93]

Not during a global pandemic with a novel virus we don't understand, but have reason to believe is long term damaging to health if you survive it's initial strike.

You are applying adult logic to the situation.  From the perspective of a 20 year old, they're thinking they're not going to get it... and even if they do get, they will be mostly asymptomatic, and even if they are symptomatic, they will recover quickly.  And they are mostly right.  The concept of tail risk is not one generally grasped at that age, and while you and I wouldn't view a 5% chance of winding up significantly affected by it as acceptable, that's not the calculus that's in the mind of a 20 year old.

BC

BC - That's about right

Michael Jordan's risk assessment described during The Last Dance comes to mind.   Where he basically was willing to take a risky bet on his health/survival if the game was on the line.  It was a joke, but not quite, as I recall.

I don't think your average 20 year old would take the risk noted.
I don't think your average 20 year old athlete would take the risk noted.
But I do think that a few 20 year olds with a decent chance at winning a national title in 2020 might take on the risks.

[Farm93]

Not during a global pandemic with a novel virus we don't understand, but have reason to believe is long term damaging to health if you survive it's initial strike.

You are applying adult logic to the situation.  From the perspective of a 20 year old, they're thinking they're not going to get it... and even if they do get, they will be mostly asymptomatic, and even if they are symptomatic, they will recover quickly.  And they are mostly right.  The concept of tail risk is not one generally grasped at that age, and while you and I wouldn't view a 5% chance of winding up significantly affected by it as acceptable, that's not the calculus that's in the mind of a 20 year old.

BC

BC - That's about right

Michael Jordan's risk assessment described during The Last Dance comes to mind.   Where he basically was willing to take a risky bet on his health/survival if the game was on the line.  It was a joke, but not quite, as I recall.

I don't think your average 20 year old would take the risk noted.
I don't think your average 20 year old athlete would take the risk noted.
But I do think that a few 20 year olds with a decent chance at winning a national title in 2020 might take on the risks.

[OutsiderFan]

This shouldn't be hard. Of course young people think they are invincible. That's why it's up to adults to step in and protect them, not exploit them for their own gain.

[OutsiderFan]

This shouldn't be hard. Of course young people think they are invincible. That's why it's up to adults to step in and protect them, not exploit them for their own gain.