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Thanks oldalum. Counterfactuals are tricky, and I have often wondered whether a President Kasich or a President Clinton would have had different results (they almost certainly would have had different styles, but how much of a difference does it make). My suspicion is that they probably would have gotten better results, because of the exponential growth of COVID-19, even a difference of 1 to 2 days in imposing lockdowns or increasing mask use marginally probably reduces transmission. But what is scary is that such actions might have cut deaths in half, and we would now be approaching a grim milestone (100,000 deaths).
Douthat has raised good points, that a lot of what has happened is out of the control of the president. But I think he sets too low a bar; we don't expect average leaders who do about as well as Italy or Spain in fighting the pandemic, we expect more than "replacement level" performance, to borrow a baseball term. And secondly, while there is a lot that isn't Trump's "fault", I have in many past posts outlined a number of steps that would have resulted in a better response. And again, because of the exponential growth of the virus, even a few marginal actions can make a big difference. I try to imagine how someone like Ronald Reagan would have addressed the nation back in February, when Trump was privately telling Woodward that it was a big deal, much deadlier than the flu and transmissible over the air, while publicly stating that it would go away on its own. Would it have made a difference? Maybe not, but hard to believe we be any worse for it.
BC