10-20-2021, 08:35 AM
Outside Topic Giants/Niners 2021 thread
(10-20-2021, 08:35 AM)DC 86 Wrote:(10-20-2021, 08:10 AM)lex24 Wrote: Seager will cost a bundle. But he’s 27. So I’d be much more willing to go 6 years or so at about 25-30. If that’s the market.
lol that's not even close to the market.
Ok then, what is the market for Seager? Is it Lindor - $340,000,000 for 10? You are right, I was way off. But he’s had some injury issues which may bring it down some. Plus the new CBA is going to have some impact. Unsure what that will be. Assuming they can get one done before pitchers and catchers report. Which is questionable.
(10-20-2021, 08:35 AM)DC 86 Wrote:(10-20-2021, 08:10 AM)lex24 Wrote: Seager will cost a bundle. But he’s 27. So I’d be much more willing to go 6 years or so at about 25-30. If that’s the market.
lol that's not even close to the market.
Ok then, what is the market for Seager? Is it Lindor - $340,000,000 for 10? You are right, I was way off. But he’s had some injury issues which may bring it down some. Plus the new CBA is going to have some impact. Unsure what that will be. Assuming they can get one done before pitchers and catchers report. Which is questionable.
10-20-2021, 01:19 PM
(10-20-2021, 09:52 AM)lex24 Wrote:(10-20-2021, 08:35 AM)DC 86 Wrote:(10-20-2021, 08:10 AM)lex24 Wrote: Seager will cost a bundle. But he’s 27. So I’d be much more willing to go 6 years or so at about 25-30. If that’s the market.
lol that's not even close to the market.
Ok then, what is the market for Seager? Is it Lindor - $340,000,000 for 10? You are right, I was way off. But he’s had some injury issues which may bring it down some. Plus the new CBA is going to have some impact. Unsure what that will be. Assuming they can get one done before pitchers and catchers report. Which is questionable.
It would be unprecedented for an elite free agent (or impending free agent signing an extension) at Seager's age to settle for a six year contract. Players fortunate enough to reach free agency in their mid-20s can leverage their peak years in order to be paid handsomely during their decline years. It would be foolish for Seager to sign for six years and be a free agent again at age 33 unless the AAV was well above market.
There aren't very many comparables; here is the complete list of top players who signed free agent contracts or extensions at age 27 or younger in the last ten years:
Francisco Lindor: age 27 when his extension kicked in. Coming off bWAR seasons of 4.8 and 3.5 (pro rata given the 60 game season). 10 years/$341 million.
Manny Machado: age 26 when his contract kicked in. Coming off bWAR seasons of 3.8 and 6.1. 10 years/$300 million.
Bryce Harper: age 26 when his contract kicked in. Coming off bWAR seasons of 4.8 and 1.8. 13 years/$330 million.
Giancarlo Stanton: age 25 when his extension kicked in. Coming off bWAR seasons of 2.8 and 6.5. 13 years/$325 million.
Seager will be 27 on opening day next year (although he turns 28 about a month later, and then again the actual opening day may be in July). He is coming off bWAR seasons of 5.7 (pro rata) and 3.7.
He only played 95 games this year, meaning that if he had played a full season his bWAR would likely be in the 5-6 range similar to the previous season. Of course he only played 95 games due to injury, so while he's been consistently elite I suppose it's possible that some teams could have injury concerns, as you mentioned. However, his injury was a broken hand which is a fluke rather than a chronic concern such as a knee, back or shoulder.
There are a lot of variables. The CBA is about to expire. I assume that the de facto salary cap will be increased but that's uncertain. The Yankees and other large market teams are in need of a shortstop. However, other top shortstops (Story, Correa) are available. He may accept a slight discount from the Dodgers but not from other teams. I don't know how he views the tradeoff between contract length and AAV.
But a contract in the neighborhood of $165 million as you posited doesn't jibe with what we know about the market for similar players.
I do have other information but it's second hand. I do know that he is willing to play a different position in the right situation.
(10-20-2021, 09:52 AM)lex24 Wrote:(10-20-2021, 08:35 AM)DC 86 Wrote:(10-20-2021, 08:10 AM)lex24 Wrote: Seager will cost a bundle. But he’s 27. So I’d be much more willing to go 6 years or so at about 25-30. If that’s the market.
lol that's not even close to the market.
Ok then, what is the market for Seager? Is it Lindor - $340,000,000 for 10? You are right, I was way off. But he’s had some injury issues which may bring it down some. Plus the new CBA is going to have some impact. Unsure what that will be. Assuming they can get one done before pitchers and catchers report. Which is questionable.
It would be unprecedented for an elite free agent (or impending free agent signing an extension) at Seager's age to settle for a six year contract. Players fortunate enough to reach free agency in their mid-20s can leverage their peak years in order to be paid handsomely during their decline years. It would be foolish for Seager to sign for six years and be a free agent again at age 33 unless the AAV was well above market.
There aren't very many comparables; here is the complete list of top players who signed free agent contracts or extensions at age 27 or younger in the last ten years:
Francisco Lindor: age 27 when his extension kicked in. Coming off bWAR seasons of 4.8 and 3.5 (pro rata given the 60 game season). 10 years/$341 million.
Manny Machado: age 26 when his contract kicked in. Coming off bWAR seasons of 3.8 and 6.1. 10 years/$300 million.
Bryce Harper: age 26 when his contract kicked in. Coming off bWAR seasons of 4.8 and 1.8. 13 years/$330 million.
Giancarlo Stanton: age 25 when his extension kicked in. Coming off bWAR seasons of 2.8 and 6.5. 13 years/$325 million.
Seager will be 27 on opening day next year (although he turns 28 about a month later, and then again the actual opening day may be in July). He is coming off bWAR seasons of 5.7 (pro rata) and 3.7.
He only played 95 games this year, meaning that if he had played a full season his bWAR would likely be in the 5-6 range similar to the previous season. Of course he only played 95 games due to injury, so while he's been consistently elite I suppose it's possible that some teams could have injury concerns, as you mentioned. However, his injury was a broken hand which is a fluke rather than a chronic concern such as a knee, back or shoulder.
There are a lot of variables. The CBA is about to expire. I assume that the de facto salary cap will be increased but that's uncertain. The Yankees and other large market teams are in need of a shortstop. However, other top shortstops (Story, Correa) are available. He may accept a slight discount from the Dodgers but not from other teams. I don't know how he views the tradeoff between contract length and AAV.
But a contract in the neighborhood of $165 million as you posited doesn't jibe with what we know about the market for similar players.
I do have other information but it's second hand. I do know that he is willing to play a different position in the right situation.
10-20-2021, 02:34 PM
The elephant in the room is the CBA. Until we know what teams can and cannot do, it is very difficult to predict the makeup of next season’s roster.
Having said that, let’s assume there will be no significant changes to the rules governing high spending teams. Therefore….
Offer Belt a short term extension similar to that signed by Crawford. If he accepts, great. If not, give him a QO. If he accepts the QO, great. If not, SF receives a draft choice and uses the Belt savings to acquire a 1B.
Tear up Buster’s existing contract and offer him a two year extension for $45-$50 million.
Replace Casali with Bart OR trade Bart for starting pitching help and bring back Casali.
Put Estrada at 2B. He has a bright future as a regular infielder.
Wish Bryant well as he seeks employment elsewhere.
Dump Dickerson.
Sign Starling Marte and put him in CF. Yaz, Slater, Duggar, Wade can rotate around him in LF and RF.
Say goodbye to Solano with Flores, LaStella, and Longo still under contract.
That sets up the non-pitching roster.
Starting Pitching - re-sign Gausman, wish DeScla and Wood the best as they depart and buyout Cueto.
That means three starters must be added - search the refuse pile for hidden gems and make a free agent contract offer or two (I haven’t taken the time yet to see who will be available) and, as noted earlier, use Bart as trade bait. Note: I would only consider trading Bart if the return is a #2 starter. That sets up the rotation - Webb, #2, Gausman, FA acquisition, FA acquisition and/or hidden gem(s).
Relief Pitching - I like the guys they have, especially now that Doval is the closer. However, I anticipate more churn but have 100% confidence in Zaidi’s ability to find quality guys.
Add to all of this, the potential blossoming of the farm system. Over the next couple years, we will begin to see new names coming up to supplant the old guard…..
Having said that, let’s assume there will be no significant changes to the rules governing high spending teams. Therefore….
Offer Belt a short term extension similar to that signed by Crawford. If he accepts, great. If not, give him a QO. If he accepts the QO, great. If not, SF receives a draft choice and uses the Belt savings to acquire a 1B.
Tear up Buster’s existing contract and offer him a two year extension for $45-$50 million.
Replace Casali with Bart OR trade Bart for starting pitching help and bring back Casali.
Put Estrada at 2B. He has a bright future as a regular infielder.
Wish Bryant well as he seeks employment elsewhere.
Dump Dickerson.
Sign Starling Marte and put him in CF. Yaz, Slater, Duggar, Wade can rotate around him in LF and RF.
Say goodbye to Solano with Flores, LaStella, and Longo still under contract.
That sets up the non-pitching roster.
Starting Pitching - re-sign Gausman, wish DeScla and Wood the best as they depart and buyout Cueto.
That means three starters must be added - search the refuse pile for hidden gems and make a free agent contract offer or two (I haven’t taken the time yet to see who will be available) and, as noted earlier, use Bart as trade bait. Note: I would only consider trading Bart if the return is a #2 starter. That sets up the rotation - Webb, #2, Gausman, FA acquisition, FA acquisition and/or hidden gem(s).
Relief Pitching - I like the guys they have, especially now that Doval is the closer. However, I anticipate more churn but have 100% confidence in Zaidi’s ability to find quality guys.
Add to all of this, the potential blossoming of the farm system. Over the next couple years, we will begin to see new names coming up to supplant the old guard…..
The elephant in the room is the CBA. Until we know what teams can and cannot do, it is very difficult to predict the makeup of next season’s roster.
Having said that, let’s assume there will be no significant changes to the rules governing high spending teams. Therefore….
Offer Belt a short term extension similar to that signed by Crawford. If he accepts, great. If not, give him a QO. If he accepts the QO, great. If not, SF receives a draft choice and uses the Belt savings to acquire a 1B.
Tear up Buster’s existing contract and offer him a two year extension for $45-$50 million.
Replace Casali with Bart OR trade Bart for starting pitching help and bring back Casali.
Put Estrada at 2B. He has a bright future as a regular infielder.
Wish Bryant well as he seeks employment elsewhere.
Dump Dickerson.
Sign Starling Marte and put him in CF. Yaz, Slater, Duggar, Wade can rotate around him in LF and RF.
Say goodbye to Solano with Flores, LaStella, and Longo still under contract.
That sets up the non-pitching roster.
Starting Pitching - re-sign Gausman, wish DeScla and Wood the best as they depart and buyout Cueto.
That means three starters must be added - search the refuse pile for hidden gems and make a free agent contract offer or two (I haven’t taken the time yet to see who will be available) and, as noted earlier, use Bart as trade bait. Note: I would only consider trading Bart if the return is a #2 starter. That sets up the rotation - Webb, #2, Gausman, FA acquisition, FA acquisition and/or hidden gem(s).
Relief Pitching - I like the guys they have, especially now that Doval is the closer. However, I anticipate more churn but have 100% confidence in Zaidi’s ability to find quality guys.
Add to all of this, the potential blossoming of the farm system. Over the next couple years, we will begin to see new names coming up to supplant the old guard…..
Having said that, let’s assume there will be no significant changes to the rules governing high spending teams. Therefore….
Offer Belt a short term extension similar to that signed by Crawford. If he accepts, great. If not, give him a QO. If he accepts the QO, great. If not, SF receives a draft choice and uses the Belt savings to acquire a 1B.
Tear up Buster’s existing contract and offer him a two year extension for $45-$50 million.
Replace Casali with Bart OR trade Bart for starting pitching help and bring back Casali.
Put Estrada at 2B. He has a bright future as a regular infielder.
Wish Bryant well as he seeks employment elsewhere.
Dump Dickerson.
Sign Starling Marte and put him in CF. Yaz, Slater, Duggar, Wade can rotate around him in LF and RF.
Say goodbye to Solano with Flores, LaStella, and Longo still under contract.
That sets up the non-pitching roster.
Starting Pitching - re-sign Gausman, wish DeScla and Wood the best as they depart and buyout Cueto.
That means three starters must be added - search the refuse pile for hidden gems and make a free agent contract offer or two (I haven’t taken the time yet to see who will be available) and, as noted earlier, use Bart as trade bait. Note: I would only consider trading Bart if the return is a #2 starter. That sets up the rotation - Webb, #2, Gausman, FA acquisition, FA acquisition and/or hidden gem(s).
Relief Pitching - I like the guys they have, especially now that Doval is the closer. However, I anticipate more churn but have 100% confidence in Zaidi’s ability to find quality guys.
Add to all of this, the potential blossoming of the farm system. Over the next couple years, we will begin to see new names coming up to supplant the old guard…..
(10-20-2021, 02:34 PM)Giants Wrote: The elephant in the room is the CBA. Until we know what teams can and cannot do, it is very difficult to predict the makeup of next season’s roster.
Having said that, let’s assume there will be no significant changes to the rules governing high spending teams. Therefore….
Offer Belt a short term extension similar to that signed by Crawford. If he accepts, great. If not, give him a QO. If he accepts the QO, great. If not, SF receives a draft choice and uses the Belt savings to acquire a 1B.
Tear up Buster’s existing contract and offer him a two year extension for $45-$50 million.
Replace Casali with Bart OR trade Bart for starting pitching help and bring back Casali.
Put Estrada at 2B. He has a bright future as a regular infielder.
Wish Bryant well as he seeks employment elsewhere.
Dump Dickerson.
Sign Starling Marte and put him in CF. Yaz, Slater, Duggar, Wade can rotate around him in LF and RF.
Say goodbye to Solano with Flores, LaStella, and Longo still under contract.
That sets up the non-pitching roster.
Starting Pitching - re-sign Gausman, wish DeScla and Wood the best as they depart and buyout Cueto.
That means three starters must be added - search the refuse pile for hidden gems and make a free agent contract offer or two (I haven’t taken the time yet to see who will be available) and, as noted earlier, use Bart as trade bait. Note: I would only consider trading Bart if the return is a #2 starter. That sets up the rotation - Webb, #2, Gausman, FA acquisition, FA acquisition and/or hidden gem(s).
Relief Pitching - I like the guys they have, especially now that Doval is the closer. However, I anticipate more churn but have 100% confidence in Zaidi’s ability to find quality guys.
Add to all of this, the potential blossoming of the farm system. Over the next couple years, we will begin to see new names coming up to supplant the old guard…..
Hmm. I'd be inclined to keep DeSclafani . . . and maybe Wood. Are they going to command too much $$ to re-sign, or do you think those guys suck? I think both are decent (at least).
(This post was last modified: 10-20-2021, 05:31 PM by teejers1.)
(10-20-2021, 02:34 PM)Giants Wrote: The elephant in the room is the CBA. Until we know what teams can and cannot do, it is very difficult to predict the makeup of next season’s roster.
Having said that, let’s assume there will be no significant changes to the rules governing high spending teams. Therefore….
Offer Belt a short term extension similar to that signed by Crawford. If he accepts, great. If not, give him a QO. If he accepts the QO, great. If not, SF receives a draft choice and uses the Belt savings to acquire a 1B.
Tear up Buster’s existing contract and offer him a two year extension for $45-$50 million.
Replace Casali with Bart OR trade Bart for starting pitching help and bring back Casali.
Put Estrada at 2B. He has a bright future as a regular infielder.
Wish Bryant well as he seeks employment elsewhere.
Dump Dickerson.
Sign Starling Marte and put him in CF. Yaz, Slater, Duggar, Wade can rotate around him in LF and RF.
Say goodbye to Solano with Flores, LaStella, and Longo still under contract.
That sets up the non-pitching roster.
Starting Pitching - re-sign Gausman, wish DeScla and Wood the best as they depart and buyout Cueto.
That means three starters must be added - search the refuse pile for hidden gems and make a free agent contract offer or two (I haven’t taken the time yet to see who will be available) and, as noted earlier, use Bart as trade bait. Note: I would only consider trading Bart if the return is a #2 starter. That sets up the rotation - Webb, #2, Gausman, FA acquisition, FA acquisition and/or hidden gem(s).
Relief Pitching - I like the guys they have, especially now that Doval is the closer. However, I anticipate more churn but have 100% confidence in Zaidi’s ability to find quality guys.
Add to all of this, the potential blossoming of the farm system. Over the next couple years, we will begin to see new names coming up to supplant the old guard…..
Hmm. I'd be inclined to keep DeSclafani . . . and maybe Wood. Are they going to command too much $$ to re-sign, or do you think those guys suck? I think both are decent (at least).
10-20-2021, 06:21 PM
(10-20-2021, 05:31 PM)teejers1 Wrote:(10-20-2021, 02:34 PM)Giants Wrote: The elephant in the room is the CBA. Until we know what teams can and cannot do, it is very difficult to predict the makeup of next season’s roster.
Having said that, let’s assume there will be no significant changes to the rules governing high spending teams. Therefore….
Offer Belt a short term extension similar to that signed by Crawford. If he accepts, great. If not, give him a QO. If he accepts the QO, great. If not, SF receives a draft choice and uses the Belt savings to acquire a 1B.
Tear up Buster’s existing contract and offer him a two year extension for $45-$50 million.
Replace Casali with Bart OR trade Bart for starting pitching help and bring back Casali.
Put Estrada at 2B. He has a bright future as a regular infielder.
Wish Bryant well as he seeks employment elsewhere.
Dump Dickerson.
Sign Starling Marte and put him in CF. Yaz, Slater, Duggar, Wade can rotate around him in LF and RF.
Say goodbye to Solano with Flores, LaStella, and Longo still under contract.
That sets up the non-pitching roster.
Starting Pitching - re-sign Gausman, wish DeScla and Wood the best as they depart and buyout Cueto.
That means three starters must be added - search the refuse pile for hidden gems and make a free agent contract offer or two (I haven’t taken the time yet to see who will be available) and, as noted earlier, use Bart as trade bait. Note: I would only consider trading Bart if the return is a #2 starter. That sets up the rotation - Webb, #2, Gausman, FA acquisition, FA acquisition and/or hidden gem(s).
Relief Pitching - I like the guys they have, especially now that Doval is the closer. However, I anticipate more churn but have 100% confidence in Zaidi’s ability to find quality guys.
Add to all of this, the potential blossoming of the farm system. Over the next couple years, we will begin to see new names coming up to supplant the old guard…..
Hmm. I'd be inclined to keep DeSclafani . . . and maybe Wood. Are they going to command too much $$ to re-sign, or do you think those guys suck? I think both are decent (at least).
Money not ability, although DeSclafani did struggle v. LA. However, the issue is definitely financial. Both took one-year lowball deals with SF hoping to rejuvenate their careers. They succeeded and are now positioned to cash in. Good for both of them….
(10-20-2021, 05:31 PM)teejers1 Wrote:(10-20-2021, 02:34 PM)Giants Wrote: The elephant in the room is the CBA. Until we know what teams can and cannot do, it is very difficult to predict the makeup of next season’s roster.
Having said that, let’s assume there will be no significant changes to the rules governing high spending teams. Therefore….
Offer Belt a short term extension similar to that signed by Crawford. If he accepts, great. If not, give him a QO. If he accepts the QO, great. If not, SF receives a draft choice and uses the Belt savings to acquire a 1B.
Tear up Buster’s existing contract and offer him a two year extension for $45-$50 million.
Replace Casali with Bart OR trade Bart for starting pitching help and bring back Casali.
Put Estrada at 2B. He has a bright future as a regular infielder.
Wish Bryant well as he seeks employment elsewhere.
Dump Dickerson.
Sign Starling Marte and put him in CF. Yaz, Slater, Duggar, Wade can rotate around him in LF and RF.
Say goodbye to Solano with Flores, LaStella, and Longo still under contract.
That sets up the non-pitching roster.
Starting Pitching - re-sign Gausman, wish DeScla and Wood the best as they depart and buyout Cueto.
That means three starters must be added - search the refuse pile for hidden gems and make a free agent contract offer or two (I haven’t taken the time yet to see who will be available) and, as noted earlier, use Bart as trade bait. Note: I would only consider trading Bart if the return is a #2 starter. That sets up the rotation - Webb, #2, Gausman, FA acquisition, FA acquisition and/or hidden gem(s).
Relief Pitching - I like the guys they have, especially now that Doval is the closer. However, I anticipate more churn but have 100% confidence in Zaidi’s ability to find quality guys.
Add to all of this, the potential blossoming of the farm system. Over the next couple years, we will begin to see new names coming up to supplant the old guard…..
Hmm. I'd be inclined to keep DeSclafani . . . and maybe Wood. Are they going to command too much $$ to re-sign, or do you think those guys suck? I think both are decent (at least).
Money not ability, although DeSclafani did struggle v. LA. However, the issue is definitely financial. Both took one-year lowball deals with SF hoping to rejuvenate their careers. They succeeded and are now positioned to cash in. Good for both of them….
10-20-2021, 06:22 PM
(10-20-2021, 01:19 PM)DC 86 Wrote:(10-20-2021, 09:52 AM)lex24 Wrote:(10-20-2021, 08:35 AM)DC 86 Wrote:(10-20-2021, 08:10 AM)lex24 Wrote: Seager will cost a bundle. But he’s 27. So I’d be much more willing to go 6 years or so at about 25-30. If that’s the market.
lol that's not even close to the market.
Ok then, what is the market for Seager? Is it Lindor - $340,000,000 for 10? You are right, I was way off. But he’s had some injury issues which may bring it down some. Plus the new CBA is going to have some impact. Unsure what that will be. Assuming they can get one done before pitchers and catchers report. Which is questionable.
It would be unprecedented for an elite free agent (or impending free agent signing an extension) at Seager's age to settle for a six year contract. Players fortunate enough to reach free agency in their mid-20s can leverage their peak years in order to be paid handsomely during their decline years. It would be foolish for Seager to sign for six years and be a free agent again at age 33 unless the AAV was well above market.
There aren't very many comparables; here is the complete list of top players who signed free agent contracts or extensions at age 27 or younger in the last ten years:
Francisco Lindor: age 27 when his extension kicked in. Coming off bWAR seasons of 4.8 and 3.5 (pro rata given the 60 game season). 10 years/$341 million.
Manny Machado: age 26 when his contract kicked in. Coming off bWAR seasons of 3.8 and 6.1. 10 years/$300 million.
Bryce Harper: age 26 when his contract kicked in. Coming off bWAR seasons of 4.8 and 1.8. 13 years/$330 million.
Giancarlo Stanton: age 25 when his extension kicked in. Coming off bWAR seasons of 2.8 and 6.5. 13 years/$325 million.
Seager will be 27 on opening day next year (although he turns 28 about a month later, and then again the actual opening day may be in July). He is coming off bWAR seasons of 5.7 (pro rata) and 3.7.
He only played 95 games this year, meaning that if he had played a full season his bWAR would likely be in the 5-6 range similar to the previous season. Of course he only played 95 games due to injury, so while he's been consistently elite I suppose it's possible that some teams could have injury concerns, as you mentioned. However, his injury was a broken hand which is a fluke rather than a chronic concern such as a knee, back or shoulder.
There are a lot of variables. The CBA is about to expire. I assume that the de facto salary cap will be increased but that's uncertain. The Yankees and other large market teams are in need of a shortstop. However, other top shortstops (Story, Correa) are available. He may accept a slight discount from the Dodgers but not from other teams. I don't know how he views the tradeoff between contract length and AAV.
But a contract in the neighborhood of $165 million as you posited doesn't jibe with what we know about the market for similar players.
I do have other information but it's second hand. I do know that he is willing to play a different position in the right situation.
Thanks. I had already admitted that my 165 was way off. But appreciate your analysis.
(10-20-2021, 01:19 PM)DC 86 Wrote:(10-20-2021, 09:52 AM)lex24 Wrote:(10-20-2021, 08:35 AM)DC 86 Wrote:(10-20-2021, 08:10 AM)lex24 Wrote: Seager will cost a bundle. But he’s 27. So I’d be much more willing to go 6 years or so at about 25-30. If that’s the market.
lol that's not even close to the market.
Ok then, what is the market for Seager? Is it Lindor - $340,000,000 for 10? You are right, I was way off. But he’s had some injury issues which may bring it down some. Plus the new CBA is going to have some impact. Unsure what that will be. Assuming they can get one done before pitchers and catchers report. Which is questionable.
It would be unprecedented for an elite free agent (or impending free agent signing an extension) at Seager's age to settle for a six year contract. Players fortunate enough to reach free agency in their mid-20s can leverage their peak years in order to be paid handsomely during their decline years. It would be foolish for Seager to sign for six years and be a free agent again at age 33 unless the AAV was well above market.
There aren't very many comparables; here is the complete list of top players who signed free agent contracts or extensions at age 27 or younger in the last ten years:
Francisco Lindor: age 27 when his extension kicked in. Coming off bWAR seasons of 4.8 and 3.5 (pro rata given the 60 game season). 10 years/$341 million.
Manny Machado: age 26 when his contract kicked in. Coming off bWAR seasons of 3.8 and 6.1. 10 years/$300 million.
Bryce Harper: age 26 when his contract kicked in. Coming off bWAR seasons of 4.8 and 1.8. 13 years/$330 million.
Giancarlo Stanton: age 25 when his extension kicked in. Coming off bWAR seasons of 2.8 and 6.5. 13 years/$325 million.
Seager will be 27 on opening day next year (although he turns 28 about a month later, and then again the actual opening day may be in July). He is coming off bWAR seasons of 5.7 (pro rata) and 3.7.
He only played 95 games this year, meaning that if he had played a full season his bWAR would likely be in the 5-6 range similar to the previous season. Of course he only played 95 games due to injury, so while he's been consistently elite I suppose it's possible that some teams could have injury concerns, as you mentioned. However, his injury was a broken hand which is a fluke rather than a chronic concern such as a knee, back or shoulder.
There are a lot of variables. The CBA is about to expire. I assume that the de facto salary cap will be increased but that's uncertain. The Yankees and other large market teams are in need of a shortstop. However, other top shortstops (Story, Correa) are available. He may accept a slight discount from the Dodgers but not from other teams. I don't know how he views the tradeoff between contract length and AAV.
But a contract in the neighborhood of $165 million as you posited doesn't jibe with what we know about the market for similar players.
I do have other information but it's second hand. I do know that he is willing to play a different position in the right situation.
Thanks. I had already admitted that my 165 was way off. But appreciate your analysis.
10-20-2021, 06:50 PM
The Giants with max out at three year deals. The philosophy is to not get stuck with somebody over the long haul. Plus they have so many possible future contributors in the system to render long contracts untenable.
(10-20-2021, 06:50 PM)Phogge Wrote: The Giants with max out at three year deals. The philosophy is to not get stuck with somebody over the long haul. Plus they have so many possible future contributors in the system to render long contracts untenable.
Depends who the long contract on for. I like the philosophy. But you can’t be so wedded to process that you miss opportunities.
On a completely different point. Official scorekeepers. Rosario hits a ball to right. Double. But Betts bobbles it. So Rosario, who had no intent to go to third absent the bobble, gains third. That’s a double and an error. But LA scorekeeper gave him a Triple. After all, can’t give Mookie an error. Pathetic.
And Houston had a pitcher go 8 whole innings. They went on like he’s some kind of hero. Course, going into game 4 Blue Heads had used 24 pitchers. It’s a new ballgame…
(10-20-2021, 06:50 PM)Phogge Wrote: The Giants with max out at three year deals. The philosophy is to not get stuck with somebody over the long haul. Plus they have so many possible future contributors in the system to render long contracts untenable.
Depends who the long contract on for. I like the philosophy. But you can’t be so wedded to process that you miss opportunities.
On a completely different point. Official scorekeepers. Rosario hits a ball to right. Double. But Betts bobbles it. So Rosario, who had no intent to go to third absent the bobble, gains third. That’s a double and an error. But LA scorekeeper gave him a Triple. After all, can’t give Mookie an error. Pathetic.
And Houston had a pitcher go 8 whole innings. They went on like he’s some kind of hero. Course, going into game 4 Blue Heads had used 24 pitchers. It’s a new ballgame…
10-20-2021, 08:07 PM
Keep Gausman and I'd definitely keep Wood... and maybe Descalfini, if he doesn't cost too much. Agree put Estrada at second. I really like him. Let Listella fill in around the field when needed. He's hurt too often and three year K at $3 mill per year looks like too much. Maybe he could be traded. Then let Dubon be the roaming replacement.
Agree, bring Bart up to back up Posey...or trade him for the right value. Doesn't sound like the guy drafted in the next year has improved as much as Bart, so I'd rather bank on Bart.
Agree, bring Bart up to back up Posey...or trade him for the right value. Doesn't sound like the guy drafted in the next year has improved as much as Bart, so I'd rather bank on Bart.
Keep Gausman and I'd definitely keep Wood... and maybe Descalfini, if he doesn't cost too much. Agree put Estrada at second. I really like him. Let Listella fill in around the field when needed. He's hurt too often and three year K at $3 mill per year looks like too much. Maybe he could be traded. Then let Dubon be the roaming replacement.
Agree, bring Bart up to back up Posey...or trade him for the right value. Doesn't sound like the guy drafted in the next year has improved as much as Bart, so I'd rather bank on Bart.
Agree, bring Bart up to back up Posey...or trade him for the right value. Doesn't sound like the guy drafted in the next year has improved as much as Bart, so I'd rather bank on Bart.
(10-20-2021, 08:07 PM)old spanish trail Wrote: Keep Gausman and I'd definitely keep Wood... and maybe Descalfini, if he doesn't cost too much. Agree put Estrada at second. I really like him. Let Listella fill in around the field when needed. He's hurt too often and three year K at $3 mill per year looks like too much. Maybe he could be traded. Then let Dubon be the roaming replacement.
Agree, bring Bart up to back up Posey...or trade him for the right value. Doesn't sound like the guy drafted in the next year has improved as much as Bart, so I'd rather bank on Bart.
Bailey had a rough first year. It will be interesting to see how he does in the Arizona Fall League…..
(10-20-2021, 08:07 PM)old spanish trail Wrote: Keep Gausman and I'd definitely keep Wood... and maybe Descalfini, if he doesn't cost too much. Agree put Estrada at second. I really like him. Let Listella fill in around the field when needed. He's hurt too often and three year K at $3 mill per year looks like too much. Maybe he could be traded. Then let Dubon be the roaming replacement.
Agree, bring Bart up to back up Posey...or trade him for the right value. Doesn't sound like the guy drafted in the next year has improved as much as Bart, so I'd rather bank on Bart.
Bailey had a rough first year. It will be interesting to see how he does in the Arizona Fall League…..
Quote:Bailey had a rough first year. It will be interesting to see how he does in the Arizona Fall League…..
Patrick Bailey shows as the #8 prospect on the MiiLB Giants Top-30. He battled injuries, weird covid league schedules and normal first year jitters but also had bright moments. Click on his name below for an overview of his season and highlights. I happened to see one of those highlight games in SJ.
https://www.mlb.com/prospects/giants/
In 1938 Neville Chamberlain declared "Peace in our time", Superman first appeared in Action Comics, Seabiscuit beat War Admiral ....... and C.a.l last won the Rose Bowl.
(This post was last modified: 10-21-2021, 10:01 AM by Leftcoast.)
Quote:Bailey had a rough first year. It will be interesting to see how he does in the Arizona Fall League…..
Patrick Bailey shows as the #8 prospect on the MiiLB Giants Top-30. He battled injuries, weird covid league schedules and normal first year jitters but also had bright moments. Click on his name below for an overview of his season and highlights. I happened to see one of those highlight games in SJ.
https://www.mlb.com/prospects/giants/
In 1938 Neville Chamberlain declared "Peace in our time", Superman first appeared in Action Comics, Seabiscuit beat War Admiral ....... and C.a.l last won the Rose Bowl.
10-22-2021, 07:21 AM
(10-21-2021, 10:00 AM)Leftcoast Wrote:Quote:Bailey had a rough first year. It will be interesting to see how he does in the Arizona Fall League…..
Patrick Bailey shows as the #8 prospect on the MiiLB Giants Top-30. He battled injuries, weird covid league schedules and normal first year jitters but also had bright moments. Click on his name below for an overview of his season and highlights. I happened to see one of those highlight games in SJ.
https://www.mlb.com/prospects/giants/
Started slow in what was his first real professional season. I still think the Giants are high on him. Genoves is another catcher showing potential. Bart is their best trade chip. Assuming Buster comes back. Which is probable, but not a given.
(10-21-2021, 10:00 AM)Leftcoast Wrote:Quote:Bailey had a rough first year. It will be interesting to see how he does in the Arizona Fall League…..
Patrick Bailey shows as the #8 prospect on the MiiLB Giants Top-30. He battled injuries, weird covid league schedules and normal first year jitters but also had bright moments. Click on his name below for an overview of his season and highlights. I happened to see one of those highlight games in SJ.
https://www.mlb.com/prospects/giants/
Started slow in what was his first real professional season. I still think the Giants are high on him. Genoves is another catcher showing potential. Bart is their best trade chip. Assuming Buster comes back. Which is probable, but not a given.
10-22-2021, 10:21 AM
Well Lex on Rosario's double late Mookie made a play that won't be in the box score and since Rosario is among the three or four fastest players in the game he was the one Brave who wouldn't have been cut down. Rosario hits a bullet down the RF line. Betts races in the corner, pivots and makes a perfect one hop throw to second as Rosario arrives.
Mookie has been hurt most of the year and only in the playoffs has he displayed the MVP ability. Great, great player. And I hate the Dodgers for getting him.
Chris Taylor has boosted his free agent stock a bunch of millions in the playoffs. I like him more than Marte.
Mookie has been hurt most of the year and only in the playoffs has he displayed the MVP ability. Great, great player. And I hate the Dodgers for getting him.
Chris Taylor has boosted his free agent stock a bunch of millions in the playoffs. I like him more than Marte.
Well Lex on Rosario's double late Mookie made a play that won't be in the box score and since Rosario is among the three or four fastest players in the game he was the one Brave who wouldn't have been cut down. Rosario hits a bullet down the RF line. Betts races in the corner, pivots and makes a perfect one hop throw to second as Rosario arrives.
Mookie has been hurt most of the year and only in the playoffs has he displayed the MVP ability. Great, great player. And I hate the Dodgers for getting him.
Chris Taylor has boosted his free agent stock a bunch of millions in the playoffs. I like him more than Marte.
Mookie has been hurt most of the year and only in the playoffs has he displayed the MVP ability. Great, great player. And I hate the Dodgers for getting him.
Chris Taylor has boosted his free agent stock a bunch of millions in the playoffs. I like him more than Marte.
10-23-2021, 08:41 AM
(10-22-2021, 10:21 AM)Phogge Wrote: Well Lex on Rosario's double late Mookie made a play that won't be in the box score and since Rosario is among the three or four fastest players in the game he was the one Brave who wouldn't have been cut down. Rosario hits a bullet down the RF line. Betts races in the corner, pivots and makes a perfect one hop throw to second as Rosario arrives.
Mookie has been hurt most of the year and only in the playoffs has he displayed the MVP ability. Great, great player. And I hate the Dodgers for getting him.
Chris Taylor has boosted his free agent stock a bunch of millions in the playoffs. I like him more than Marte.
Agree Betts is a great player. Seems to be a good guy as well. For a Dodger…..:)
Disagree - Taylor is good. But I’d take Marte. Course, what’s the cost difference going to be?
(10-22-2021, 10:21 AM)Phogge Wrote: Well Lex on Rosario's double late Mookie made a play that won't be in the box score and since Rosario is among the three or four fastest players in the game he was the one Brave who wouldn't have been cut down. Rosario hits a bullet down the RF line. Betts races in the corner, pivots and makes a perfect one hop throw to second as Rosario arrives.
Mookie has been hurt most of the year and only in the playoffs has he displayed the MVP ability. Great, great player. And I hate the Dodgers for getting him.
Chris Taylor has boosted his free agent stock a bunch of millions in the playoffs. I like him more than Marte.
Agree Betts is a great player. Seems to be a good guy as well. For a Dodger…..:)
Disagree - Taylor is good. But I’d take Marte. Course, what’s the cost difference going to be?
10-23-2021, 09:53 AM
Longoria is aging. He needs rest. Taylor can play there and at times Longoria is feeling OK will play any of the OF positions. Plus he probably signs for four years so in 2023 he takes over full time at third.
Lex, your undefeated sideline nemesis just went up 7-0 over Northwestern early in the second Q. Yay!
Lex, your undefeated sideline nemesis just went up 7-0 over Northwestern early in the second Q. Yay!
Longoria is aging. He needs rest. Taylor can play there and at times Longoria is feeling OK will play any of the OF positions. Plus he probably signs for four years so in 2023 he takes over full time at third.
Lex, your undefeated sideline nemesis just went up 7-0 over Northwestern early in the second Q. Yay!
Lex, your undefeated sideline nemesis just went up 7-0 over Northwestern early in the second Q. Yay!
10-23-2021, 11:06 AM
(10-23-2021, 09:53 AM)Phogge Wrote: Longoria is aging. He needs rest. Taylor can play there and at times Longoria is feeling OK will play any of the OF positions. Plus he probably signs for four years so in 2023 he takes over full time at third.
Lex, your undefeated sideline nemesis just went up 7-0 over Northwestern early in the second Q. Yay!
Wake me when he wins a big game…..
(10-23-2021, 09:53 AM)Phogge Wrote: Longoria is aging. He needs rest. Taylor can play there and at times Longoria is feeling OK will play any of the OF positions. Plus he probably signs for four years so in 2023 he takes over full time at third.
Lex, your undefeated sideline nemesis just went up 7-0 over Northwestern early in the second Q. Yay!
Wake me when he wins a big game…..
10-23-2021, 12:11 PM
Dodgers will probably come back and win this series. But I think Roberts (one of the great guys in baseball from all accounts) misused his pitching staff. Badly.
First Game (Sat) was a necessary bullpen game
Game 2. (Sun) Starts Scherzer. Who had pitched the 9th two days earlier. Buehler was available on 4 days rest. Scherzer can only go 4 plus. Then he brings Urias in late.
Game 3. Tues - Buehler. If Buehler goes Sun, Scherzer is availability on 4 days rest from his relief appearance
Game 4. Urias. Who had gone an inning on Sunday. Had nothing
Game 5 another forced bullpen game.
Had he pitched Buehler Sunday (and not used Urias in relief, he gets his big three pitching on normal rest - Buehler Sun, Scherzer Tues, Urias Wed.
And that leaves him with Buehler on 5 days rest for Sat and Scherzer on 4 in game 7. With Urias in the wings if necessary.
Now, Scherzer can’t go game 6 with a tired arm. So it’s Buehler on 3 days rest.
The Dodgers will win anyway. Because they have that much talent. Plus Atlanta tends to choke in the playoffs anyway.
If they do, I think it’s despite Roberts mishandling of a staff. Really hard for me to understand why he felt the need to go to Scherzer game two. Screwed everything up
First Game (Sat) was a necessary bullpen game
Game 2. (Sun) Starts Scherzer. Who had pitched the 9th two days earlier. Buehler was available on 4 days rest. Scherzer can only go 4 plus. Then he brings Urias in late.
Game 3. Tues - Buehler. If Buehler goes Sun, Scherzer is availability on 4 days rest from his relief appearance
Game 4. Urias. Who had gone an inning on Sunday. Had nothing
Game 5 another forced bullpen game.
Had he pitched Buehler Sunday (and not used Urias in relief, he gets his big three pitching on normal rest - Buehler Sun, Scherzer Tues, Urias Wed.
And that leaves him with Buehler on 5 days rest for Sat and Scherzer on 4 in game 7. With Urias in the wings if necessary.
Now, Scherzer can’t go game 6 with a tired arm. So it’s Buehler on 3 days rest.
The Dodgers will win anyway. Because they have that much talent. Plus Atlanta tends to choke in the playoffs anyway.
If they do, I think it’s despite Roberts mishandling of a staff. Really hard for me to understand why he felt the need to go to Scherzer game two. Screwed everything up
Dodgers will probably come back and win this series. But I think Roberts (one of the great guys in baseball from all accounts) misused his pitching staff. Badly.
First Game (Sat) was a necessary bullpen game
Game 2. (Sun) Starts Scherzer. Who had pitched the 9th two days earlier. Buehler was available on 4 days rest. Scherzer can only go 4 plus. Then he brings Urias in late.
Game 3. Tues - Buehler. If Buehler goes Sun, Scherzer is availability on 4 days rest from his relief appearance
Game 4. Urias. Who had gone an inning on Sunday. Had nothing
Game 5 another forced bullpen game.
Had he pitched Buehler Sunday (and not used Urias in relief, he gets his big three pitching on normal rest - Buehler Sun, Scherzer Tues, Urias Wed.
And that leaves him with Buehler on 5 days rest for Sat and Scherzer on 4 in game 7. With Urias in the wings if necessary.
Now, Scherzer can’t go game 6 with a tired arm. So it’s Buehler on 3 days rest.
The Dodgers will win anyway. Because they have that much talent. Plus Atlanta tends to choke in the playoffs anyway.
If they do, I think it’s despite Roberts mishandling of a staff. Really hard for me to understand why he felt the need to go to Scherzer game two. Screwed everything up
First Game (Sat) was a necessary bullpen game
Game 2. (Sun) Starts Scherzer. Who had pitched the 9th two days earlier. Buehler was available on 4 days rest. Scherzer can only go 4 plus. Then he brings Urias in late.
Game 3. Tues - Buehler. If Buehler goes Sun, Scherzer is availability on 4 days rest from his relief appearance
Game 4. Urias. Who had gone an inning on Sunday. Had nothing
Game 5 another forced bullpen game.
Had he pitched Buehler Sunday (and not used Urias in relief, he gets his big three pitching on normal rest - Buehler Sun, Scherzer Tues, Urias Wed.
And that leaves him with Buehler on 5 days rest for Sat and Scherzer on 4 in game 7. With Urias in the wings if necessary.
Now, Scherzer can’t go game 6 with a tired arm. So it’s Buehler on 3 days rest.
The Dodgers will win anyway. Because they have that much talent. Plus Atlanta tends to choke in the playoffs anyway.
If they do, I think it’s despite Roberts mishandling of a staff. Really hard for me to understand why he felt the need to go to Scherzer game two. Screwed everything up
10-23-2021, 04:54 PM
I have a feeling that we won't see many mega 10 year contracts unless it's the Yanks and Dodgers. We'll see. Harballs has a defense and a freshman backup QB who will be special. He's getting more and more reps.
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