[BostonCard]

In Texas the virus is all over the community spreading like crazy, and the Dallas County vax rate is 44% according to NYT data. So even though you are vax'd, the odds are you are going to get exposed to the virus while there, multiple times. Hopefully you won't be a breakthrough symptomatic infection, but the odds are high you will get an asymptomatic infection with so many unvax'd people around. Maybe you are lucky to avoid infection from one virus encounter, but you need a 100% success rate every time you encounter it. The odds are not good that you will come away unscathed given the number of times you will encounter it, and how few people will be wearing masks.

The infection rate in Dallas county is 800/day in a population of 2.4 million, or about 1 in 3000.  If you conservatively assume that is an undercount by a factor of 3, that's 1 in 1000, and if you assume the average infected person is infected for 10 days, then roughly 1 in 100 people in Dallas is infected.  While a visitor to Dallas county is likely to encounter more than 100 people, will they have 100 close contacts?

BC

[BostonCard]

In Texas the virus is all over the community spreading like crazy, and the Dallas County vax rate is 44% according to NYT data. So even though you are vax'd, the odds are you are going to get exposed to the virus while there, multiple times. Hopefully you won't be a breakthrough symptomatic infection, but the odds are high you will get an asymptomatic infection with so many unvax'd people around. Maybe you are lucky to avoid infection from one virus encounter, but you need a 100% success rate every time you encounter it. The odds are not good that you will come away unscathed given the number of times you will encounter it, and how few people will be wearing masks.

The infection rate in Dallas county is 800/day in a population of 2.4 million, or about 1 in 3000.  If you conservatively assume that is an undercount by a factor of 3, that's 1 in 1000, and if you assume the average infected person is infected for 10 days, then roughly 1 in 100 people in Dallas is infected.  While a visitor to Dallas county is likely to encounter more than 100 people, will they have 100 close contacts?

BC

[CardinalSagehen]

Another way to look at the situation is that we are moving from pandemic to endemic. At this point, I am speculating that we are all going to be exposed to Delta or future variants sooner or later. I don’t think it’s going to be possible for an individual on the Stanford campus (or any campus) to avoid exposure to Delta entirely through December. Their vaccination and/or natural defenses may help them avoid being ill or testing positive, but they will not completely avoid the virus. We see this happening in countries like the UK and Israel with very high, Santa Clara County-like vaccination rates.  In Santa Clara County, cases are occurring among the vaccinated at a rate roughly 1/4 as much as among the unvaccinated, which is still not 0. (Fortunately, as we all know, the vaccine remains extremely effective against severe cases.)

My point is that being entirely ruthless about the vaccine would be the best thing Stanford Football can do.  Moving games, distancing unvaccinated players in team meetings, and even masking are illusory solutions.  One thing I noted in Shaw’s discussion of the team’s vaccination status is that unvaccinated staff and players must continue to be tested daily.  This alone will result in more positives, whether symptomatic, false, or true.  And positives will result in quarantines for roommates and teammates.  (See Davis Mills @Oregon, 2020.)  In addition to personal and public safety, this is another enormous reason for a team member to be vaccinated, if they like winning games.  

Note that I’m not arguing against daily testing - just reviewing the facts as presented.  (Maybe all players are still being tested daily?)

[CardinalSagehen]

Another way to look at the situation is that we are moving from pandemic to endemic. At this point, I am speculating that we are all going to be exposed to Delta or future variants sooner or later. I don’t think it’s going to be possible for an individual on the Stanford campus (or any campus) to avoid exposure to Delta entirely through December. Their vaccination and/or natural defenses may help them avoid being ill or testing positive, but they will not completely avoid the virus. We see this happening in countries like the UK and Israel with very high, Santa Clara County-like vaccination rates.  In Santa Clara County, cases are occurring among the vaccinated at a rate roughly 1/4 as much as among the unvaccinated, which is still not 0. (Fortunately, as we all know, the vaccine remains extremely effective against severe cases.)

My point is that being entirely ruthless about the vaccine would be the best thing Stanford Football can do.  Moving games, distancing unvaccinated players in team meetings, and even masking are illusory solutions.  One thing I noted in Shaw’s discussion of the team’s vaccination status is that unvaccinated staff and players must continue to be tested daily.  This alone will result in more positives, whether symptomatic, false, or true.  And positives will result in quarantines for roommates and teammates.  (See Davis Mills @Oregon, 2020.)  In addition to personal and public safety, this is another enormous reason for a team member to be vaccinated, if they like winning games.  

Note that I’m not arguing against daily testing - just reviewing the facts as presented.  (Maybe all players are still being tested daily?)

[OutsiderFan]

It appears your vaccination doesn't protect against the Delta variant as much as you want to think it does, so if that is what is spreading in Texas and elsewhere, don't be too cavalier about your behavior because you are vax'd, if you want to avoid Covid infection. 

[tweet]https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1425492860619481098[/tweet]

[OutsiderFan]

It appears your vaccination doesn't protect against the Delta variant as much as you want to think it does, so if that is what is spreading in Texas and elsewhere, don't be too cavalier about your behavior because you are vax'd, if you want to avoid Covid infection. 

[tweet]https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1425492860619481098[/tweet]

[BobK]

https://twitter.com/stanforddaily/status...49313?s=21

New rules starting Sunday

[BobK]

https://twitter.com/stanforddaily/status...49313?s=21

New rules starting Sunday

[Softball Fan]

I think it's a good policy for everyone on campus but can see some students feeling it's overkill.  How long will students testing positive with no symptoms have to quarantine in a different dorm?

[Softball Fan]

I think it's a good policy for everyone on campus but can see some students feeling it's overkill.  How long will students testing positive with no symptoms have to quarantine in a different dorm?

[82lsju]

https://twitter.com/stanforddaily/status...49313?s=21

New rules starting Sunday

details here

https://news.stanford.edu/today/2021/08/...-students/

we're going to a concert at Frost in about a week.  The current requirements (which have changed since we bought the ticket six weeks ago) include showing a photo ID and proof of vaccination or negative test results to enter.  Masks are required for unvaccinated and optional for vaccinated.  I wonder if these requirement will carry over to football games

[82lsju]

https://twitter.com/stanforddaily/status...49313?s=21

New rules starting Sunday

details here

https://news.stanford.edu/today/2021/08/...-students/

we're going to a concert at Frost in about a week.  The current requirements (which have changed since we bought the ticket six weeks ago) include showing a photo ID and proof of vaccination or negative test results to enter.  Masks are required for unvaccinated and optional for vaccinated.  I wonder if these requirement will carry over to football games

[martyup]

This has become another Covid thread.  Shutting it down.

[martyup]

This has become another Covid thread.  Shutting it down.

[BobK]

Actually this is sports attendance related due to covid

[BobK]

Actually this is sports attendance related due to covid