(06-06-2022, 07:20 AM)Giants Wrote: How are the big money free agents doing this season?
In yesterday’s Chronicle, John Shea suggested not so good…
Overall, only three of 25 hitters who signed for $6 million+ are batting above their career OPS so far this season. Chris Taylor, Joc Pederson and C. J. Cron.
It's true that as a whole free agents haven't been great so far this season. Of course the sample size is very small, and free agents historically tend to trend down in the first year (and especially the first part of the first year) on a new team, especially in a new league. Nevertheless, it's true that some players (e.g. Semien) have been terrible.
But comparing 2022 OPS to career OPS is really misleading to the point of being dishonest, given that we are in the worst offensive season of the DH era and therefore offensive numbers are down across the board. Let's take Freddie Freeman as an example:
Last year Freeman hit 300/393/503 (.896 OPS) which was basically right in line with his career OPS (.890). This year's he's hitting 294/379/455 (.834 OPS), i.e. a 62 point drop in OPS driven by a 48 point drop in slugging percentage. Yet his OPS+ (which normalizes for league wide conditions as well as park factors, etc) was 133 last year (33% above league average) and 132 this year (32% above league average), essentially identical. So by Shea's superficial analysis he's solidly in the "bad" category but he's actually performing at the exact same level as last season.
I don't know the exact number but I'm assuming the vast majority of hitters are hitting below their career OPS due to the current offensive environment. Mike Trout is in the top ten in OPS with an OPS+ of 172 (completely consistent with his career OPS+ of 176) and he's 47 points below his career OPS.
(06-06-2022, 08:02 AM)Giants Wrote: Throwing money around is not the solution. Wisely investing resources is the answer.
That statement is axiomatic. The issue is how to define wise investing. I would argue that the Dodgers have thrown money around but that in the grand scheme of things it's been wise, even with some overpayments. Giants management has convinced its fans that every signing has to be "smart" in the sense of producing surplus value. But the goal should be winning baseball games, not winning negotiations.
Take Carlos Correa as an example. He's making $35 million this year, and presumably he's in Shea's list of underperformers. And it's true that he's hit a modest 279/344/407 (only 22% above league average, according to OPS+). But would he be an upgrade in the Giants infield or not? would you rather have him out there every day for the rest of the season or one of Tommy La Stella, Brandon Crawford or Evan Longoria? The Giants front office (and its shills in the press) will posit that "it's a good thing we didn't sign him, he's being overpaid right now" but fans should be arguing that the team can easily afford him and that he represents a major upgrade to the team.