(10-29-2023, 08:47 AM)lex24 Wrote:Mick dateline='[url=tel:1698543919' Wrote: 1698543919[/url]']
Question for Lex and Giants. If, in 2023, the Padres and Giants switched managers at the beginning of the year, how do you think each manager would have done?
Mick, I don’t know. And I don’t care. It’s an impossible question to answer. You are free to mourn the loss of Kapler. I’m thrilled. “Different strokes for different folks. And so on and so on and scoobey doobie doobie.”
It's an easy question to answer, because it is simple speculation. If you gave Kapler a team with that much talent, he would have absolutely crushed it. Just my opinion. Kapler won 79 games with some of the worst hitting and fielding in the league. And as far as how Melvin would have done with the Giants...well, we'll get to see in 2024, won't we? My guess is worse than 79 wins, unless he and Farhan manage to score multiple choice free agents AND the majority of the 2nd year players that Zaidi drafted dramatically improve. And maybe they will under Melvin's leadership, I certainly hope so.
Giants Wrote: Thanks, Mick. You answered a number of questions I had re: why you don’t think Melvin is “all that”.
The one thing I would point out - I disagree with using average in the context you detailed. It is better to use median. IMO, because the 107 is such an outlier, the average is significantly skewed. The median (81) represents a truer expectation based on past performance.
Giants, you're certainly free to use the median instead of the mean, and if it were a population of 50 or 100 or even 10, I would do the same. But it's a population of four seasons, so I can't disregard the 107 wins as blithely as you and Lex do. That's more wins than any of the prior 38 Giant managers has had...ever. And 13 of those 38 managers were Hall of Famers. More than Durocher. More than McGraw. More than Bill Terry, Humm Baby, Dusty, Alou or Bochy. And it came after three Bochy seasons that were worse than any year Kapler ever had as a manager...ever. Bochy's last season, the Giants won 77 games. Kapler's first full season, they won 107. That's a 30 game turnaround. Bob Melvin never had a 30 game turnaround in a full season. Actually that's not true...he managed Seattle when they went from 93 wins to 63 wins. I suppose that qualifies, albeit in the opposite direction.
(10-29-2023, 08:47 AM)lex24 Wrote: While we still have a strong difference of opinion regarding Melvin, I think we can agree the focus is now on Zaidi and how he navigates the off-season.
What I don’t understand, Mick, is why you continue to brush aside the comments of Webb, Yaz and Zaidi. Seldom do players publicly make such comments. We can disagree on Webb as a CY candidate - yes, no way he wins. But please don’t use the W-L record to support your position. He had the worst run support in baseball. And he is the closest thing to a star the Giants have.
Yaz is not a star. But he’s as solid as they come. And a leader on the Giants.
I didn't say anything about Zaidi's comments. Please don't mischaracterize what I've said as criticism of Zaidi's comments. As for Webb, I suspect his frustrations were more with the terrible fielding and terrible hitting, as I've said. Webb had four one-run losses, so if he had better run and field support, his 11-13 should have been 15-9, like he was the prior year. Interestingly, Webb didn't get the loss for any two run losses, and only one three-run loss. All the rest of his losses were by four or more runs. And I already said positive things about him.
As for Yaz...I disagree with you, slightly. The point I was getting at is that Yaz was a star. Emphasis on "was". In 2019 and 2020, he was absolutely a star. He finished 8th in MVP voting in 2020, when he had a 164 OPS+ at .968 and led the league in triples. His OPS+ declined the next two years, was at 97 in 2022, and his batting average the last three years was .224, .214 and .233. If that's "solid", I'd hate to see what you consider "average" to be (MLB batting average was .248 incidentally, Yaz was 15 points south of that). And this year, injuries limited him to 106 games. It's much, much easier to blame the manager when your skills have declined, rather than to say "I was briefly a star, my skills crashed back to earth, and I can't field or hit as well as I used to." Yaz is implying that he would have done better with another manager. Yeah, right.
Here's a prediction: Yaz will stink next year, he'll say he needs to get untracked, but he never will. He will have aged out. It's already happened, and he blamed Kapler, as Cain/Webb blamed Kapler, as Zaidi blamed Kapler. Everyone else can buy into the idea that it was the terrible clubhouse caused by Kapler. News flash: it was the terrible clubhouse atmosphere caused by players that Zaidi chose who couldn't hit or field. And the same thing is going to happen next year, only worse.
(10-29-2023, 08:47 AM)lex24 Wrote: Kapler was Zaidis first managerial choice. He picked him knowing it would not go over particularly well. So, that he came out near the end of the year and said they weren’t ready when it mattered most spoke volumes.
Added together it appears that they stopped playing for Kapler. When that happens, the manager is
Melvin is not going to turn chickens-t into chicken salad. Now it’s on Zaidi to improve the roster. Better chance to do so with Kapler gone. Players know what’s going on. And if there was that much public grumbling, it’s reasonable to conclude that there was much more that did not come out.
As for SD, I don’t know what happened. But he has a 20 year track record. And a good one at that.
We don't disagree on much. Melvin does have a good, not great 20 year track record. Made the playoffs 8 times in 20 seasons. Finished 1st in his division four times. Got past the wild card or CS three times. Never made the World Series. Hey, he's a good manager. And when the Giants fail next year -- and they will, assuming they miss out on top flight free agents per usual -- no one will blame Bob Melvin, because BoMel fits the traditional manager mode, same as Bochy.
Audaces fortuna iuvat

