02-24-2025, 11:22 PM
Coincidentally on the cross country travel topic, LSJU parent and Sports Illustrated writer Pat Forde's column today has this to say, including a mention on how LSJU and Cal have been most adversely affected:
https://www.si.com/college-basketball/fo...g-carousel
Long Trips Are (Unsurprisingly) Taking Their Toll
On Sunday, USC Trojans coach Eric Musselman followed Cronin in articulating the difficulty of cross-country travel in their new Big Ten reality. While there is zero reason to pity the former Pac-12 schools who sold out their athletes by taking the Big Ten cash grab, Musselman isn’t wrong. Neither was Cronin when he piped up a few weeks ago.
The numbers for the Pac-12 diaspora to the Big Ten and ACC show that they are underperforming when playing two or more time zones away from home, and visitors to the West Coast in the those leagues are underperforming as well. A breakdown of the season to date (in men’s basketball only):
ACC teams playing league road games two or more time zones removed from home are 6–23, a .261 winning percentage. The overall league road record is 57–87, a .396 winning percentage.
Big Ten teams playing league road games two or more time zones removed have been markedly more in line with overall conference visiting performances. Road teams are 20–29, a .408 winning percentage. The league road winning percentage as a whole is .430.
But taking it beyond wins and losses to factor in expected results shows that teams doing the long travel are not quite playing to their predictive standard. Using Ken Pomeroy’s pregame predicted point spreads, the ACC teams playing two or more time zones away have underperformed 17 times, overperformed 11 times and pushed once. Using the same metrics, Big Ten teams playing two or more time zones away have underperformed 24 times, overperformed 20 times and pushed five times.
The Stanford Cardinal (11) and California Golden Bears (12) have been the biggest home heroes/road zeros, going a combined 2–13 on the road in ACC long travel games and 10–4 at home. Stanford has overperformed on the road just once, upsetting the North Carolina Tar Heels, an outcome the Heels may deeply regret come Selection Sunday. Cal overperformed five times but won only once, at NC State. Meanwhile, visitors to the Bay Area have underperformed nine times in 14 games.
The UCLA Bruins (13) lost their first four Big Ten road trips to Central or Eastern time before finally breaking through at Indiana on Feb. 14. The Bruins are 5–2 at home against long travelers, with a home loss to the Minnesota Golden Gophers as the more notable outlier.
The USC Trojans (14) had a stunning win at Illinois but several underperforming road losses, most recently the one against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights that had Musselman lamenting the schedule. The flip side of that was upsetting the Michigan State Spartans in Los Angeles.
The Washington Huskies (15) have been drubbed a couple of times on the road—by 34 at Michigan State and by 24 at the Ohio State Buckeyes—but also won at Minnesota and the Penn State Nittany Lions. They’ve been tougher at home, most notably upsetting the Maryland Terrapins.
The Oregon Ducks (16) have been the best long-travel road team on the West Coast, with a 3–3 record that includes the stunning comeback upset of the Wisconsin Badgers on Saturday. They have, conversely, coughed up some home hairballs—a 32-point loss to Illinois and a loss to the Nebraska Cornhuskers that pumped oxygen into the Huskers’ NCAA dreams.
https://www.si.com/college-basketball/fo...g-carousel
Long Trips Are (Unsurprisingly) Taking Their Toll
On Sunday, USC Trojans coach Eric Musselman followed Cronin in articulating the difficulty of cross-country travel in their new Big Ten reality. While there is zero reason to pity the former Pac-12 schools who sold out their athletes by taking the Big Ten cash grab, Musselman isn’t wrong. Neither was Cronin when he piped up a few weeks ago.
The numbers for the Pac-12 diaspora to the Big Ten and ACC show that they are underperforming when playing two or more time zones away from home, and visitors to the West Coast in the those leagues are underperforming as well. A breakdown of the season to date (in men’s basketball only):
ACC teams playing league road games two or more time zones removed from home are 6–23, a .261 winning percentage. The overall league road record is 57–87, a .396 winning percentage.
Big Ten teams playing league road games two or more time zones removed have been markedly more in line with overall conference visiting performances. Road teams are 20–29, a .408 winning percentage. The league road winning percentage as a whole is .430.
But taking it beyond wins and losses to factor in expected results shows that teams doing the long travel are not quite playing to their predictive standard. Using Ken Pomeroy’s pregame predicted point spreads, the ACC teams playing two or more time zones away have underperformed 17 times, overperformed 11 times and pushed once. Using the same metrics, Big Ten teams playing two or more time zones away have underperformed 24 times, overperformed 20 times and pushed five times.
The Stanford Cardinal (11) and California Golden Bears (12) have been the biggest home heroes/road zeros, going a combined 2–13 on the road in ACC long travel games and 10–4 at home. Stanford has overperformed on the road just once, upsetting the North Carolina Tar Heels, an outcome the Heels may deeply regret come Selection Sunday. Cal overperformed five times but won only once, at NC State. Meanwhile, visitors to the Bay Area have underperformed nine times in 14 games.
The UCLA Bruins (13) lost their first four Big Ten road trips to Central or Eastern time before finally breaking through at Indiana on Feb. 14. The Bruins are 5–2 at home against long travelers, with a home loss to the Minnesota Golden Gophers as the more notable outlier.
The USC Trojans (14) had a stunning win at Illinois but several underperforming road losses, most recently the one against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights that had Musselman lamenting the schedule. The flip side of that was upsetting the Michigan State Spartans in Los Angeles.
The Washington Huskies (15) have been drubbed a couple of times on the road—by 34 at Michigan State and by 24 at the Ohio State Buckeyes—but also won at Minnesota and the Penn State Nittany Lions. They’ve been tougher at home, most notably upsetting the Maryland Terrapins.
The Oregon Ducks (16) have been the best long-travel road team on the West Coast, with a 3–3 record that includes the stunning comeback upset of the Wisconsin Badgers on Saturday. They have, conversely, coughed up some home hairballs—a 32-point loss to Illinois and a loss to the Nebraska Cornhuskers that pumped oxygen into the Huskers’ NCAA dreams.