(02-22-2016, 10:58 AM)81alum link Wrote:[quote author=leftcoast link=topic=14632.msg156959#msg156959 date=1456124774]
ESPN's Charlie Cream has Stanford as a 4 seed in South Carolina's region, on the opposite side from UConn and hosting a sub-regional with OK State as our matching 5 seed. All in all this sounds pretty good - Early days but I'll take this should we be so lucky.Â
http://espn.go.com/womens-college-basket...acketology
I would certainly take that. Let's keep in mind, however, that Charlie has over the years been highly friendly to Stanford--often more so than the committee.Â
At this stage, depending on next weekend and the Pac 12 tournament, I could see us climbing considerable above a 4 seed if we win out and beat OSU, Oregon, and winning the Pac 12 tournament over ASU and UCLA along the way. But we could lose two games next weekend and get knocked out of the Pac 12 tournement early, too, in which case we could sink to a 5 or 6 seed and lose the chance to host. So--a lot is on the line.
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I know there are a lot of variables outside our control, but what do you think are the ceiling and floor in regards to our seeding?
In the best case scenario, we sweep the Oregon schools and then win the Pac-12 tournament, beating a combination of AZ State, UCLA and Oregon State along the way. That would give us 3 more quality wins at least and we would be 27-6 (14-4) entering the tourney. Could we be a #3 seed? I think 6 losses is too much for a #2 seed.
In the worst case scenario, we get swept by the Oregon schools and end up as a #4 seed in the conference tourney (the 5th place team already has 7 conference losses, so we can't be passed for a #4 seed) and after a first round bye, lose to the #12 seed (this is an absolute worst case scenario, so it presumes the #12 seed ousted the #5 seed). We would be 22-9 (12-6) with just one terrible loss to the #12 seed, but nearly double digit losses and entering the NCAA tourney on a 3-game losing streak. A #6 seed or #7 seed? Anything below would imply that we were a bubble team and I don't think even with this scenario, our stock would drop that much.