[DC 86]

I’m thinking it is more likely to happen in the NFL, but I haven’t looked.

BC

Both seasons are very long, but I was thinking it is more likely in the NBA.  In the NFL, you have 22 starters and three specialists. If there's one major injury, that's a sub-par replacement at 4% of the team.  If there's a major injury to an NBA starter, that's 20% of the team.  If there's two injuries, that's about 8% of the team.  Still manageable.  Two injuries to two of the five starters on an NBA team is disaster.  So it would seem to me that the NBA would be more susceptible to untimely ousters of first and second round seeded teams.

I was thinking that the Warriors were a good (not great) regular season team in which the putative "Death lineup" had only played together 0.02% of the season, because different players were hurt and out of the lineup at different times.  I was enthused because all the starters and key role players -- except GP2, who is a revelation -- were healthy for the playoffs.

Interesting, my thought was more along the lines that basketball is a best of 7, while FB is one game, and upsets are just more common in football.

BC

Best-of-Seven (or even three or five, in the olden days) is the overriding issue which makes upsets far less likely, combined with the economics of the NBA (vis a vis the NFL) which makes for a top-heavier league.

The NBA has been around for 75 years, with sixteen teams qualifying for the playoffs starting in 1984, and only twice has the champion been lower than a three-seed: 1969 Celtics (4-seed) and 1995 Rockets (6-seed).

The NFL starting seeding teams in 1975, since then there have been ten champions that were lower than a three-seed. This year's Super Bowl was actually a matchup of four-seeds.

[DC 86]

I’m thinking it is more likely to happen in the NFL, but I haven’t looked.

BC

Both seasons are very long, but I was thinking it is more likely in the NBA.  In the NFL, you have 22 starters and three specialists. If there's one major injury, that's a sub-par replacement at 4% of the team.  If there's a major injury to an NBA starter, that's 20% of the team.  If there's two injuries, that's about 8% of the team.  Still manageable.  Two injuries to two of the five starters on an NBA team is disaster.  So it would seem to me that the NBA would be more susceptible to untimely ousters of first and second round seeded teams.

I was thinking that the Warriors were a good (not great) regular season team in which the putative "Death lineup" had only played together 0.02% of the season, because different players were hurt and out of the lineup at different times.  I was enthused because all the starters and key role players -- except GP2, who is a revelation -- were healthy for the playoffs.

Interesting, my thought was more along the lines that basketball is a best of 7, while FB is one game, and upsets are just more common in football.

BC

Best-of-Seven (or even three or five, in the olden days) is the overriding issue which makes upsets far less likely, combined with the economics of the NBA (vis a vis the NFL) which makes for a top-heavier league.

The NBA has been around for 75 years, with sixteen teams qualifying for the playoffs starting in 1984, and only twice has the champion been lower than a three-seed: 1969 Celtics (4-seed) and 1995 Rockets (6-seed).

The NFL starting seeding teams in 1975, since then there have been ten champions that were lower than a three-seed. This year's Super Bowl was actually a matchup of four-seeds.