[Goose]

I know it’s largely symbolic either way, and even if Ukraine manages to hold the town, it will have come at a cost, but the successful defense of Bakhmut can really be a rallying cry for Ukraine.


BC

It is indeed a victory to hold the town. An intriguing question is what reserves Russia retains behind the FEBA in that area. While I am not a fan of making Donbas the main focus of a Ukrainian offensive, could it be that once again Russia has created a hollow shell? The notes of caution in the Russian blogosphere may indicate they have not, but the fact Wagner was doing the fighting may mean there is not much behind them. Wagner generally doesn't do defense. That is left to "regular" troops. If Ukraine can start a limited offensive that hits air, we may have another Russian evacuation in the near future similar to Kupiansk. Even if there is another line of defense eventually formed, a 30 km advance by Ukraine would suck in any available troops, leaving vulnerabilities elsewhere. I am sure the Ukrainians are studying this with great interest.

[Goose]

I know it’s largely symbolic either way, and even if Ukraine manages to hold the town, it will have come at a cost, but the successful defense of Bakhmut can really be a rallying cry for Ukraine.


BC

It is indeed a victory to hold the town. An intriguing question is what reserves Russia retains behind the FEBA in that area. While I am not a fan of making Donbas the main focus of a Ukrainian offensive, could it be that once again Russia has created a hollow shell? The notes of caution in the Russian blogosphere may indicate they have not, but the fact Wagner was doing the fighting may mean there is not much behind them. Wagner generally doesn't do defense. That is left to "regular" troops. If Ukraine can start a limited offensive that hits air, we may have another Russian evacuation in the near future similar to Kupiansk. Even if there is another line of defense eventually formed, a 30 km advance by Ukraine would suck in any available troops, leaving vulnerabilities elsewhere. I am sure the Ukrainians are studying this with great interest.