[Goose]

The way things are going with funding from the West, this offer is one that the Ukrainians may not be able to refuse, but also one they are not able to accept:

Supposed Cease Fire Offer

I'm sure he would be happy to stop the war if he is allowed to keep the 20% of Ukraine he has seized--especially Crimea.  Of course, the war would stop just for long enough for him to harden his gains, rearm, wait for a lull, and strike again--maybe Ukraine, maybe some other bordering state. 

On the other hand, the prospect of taking back the invaded territories gets more and more remote.  A peace settlement based on the current boundaries would probably only be acceptable to the Ukrainians if they had an absolute guarantee of protection for what is left of their country--which would mean NATO membership.  And with Hungary becoming a pro-Putin autocracy, that will never ever happen.

Under these circumstances, the only way I see a successful outcome is if the West vigorously delivers copious amounts of aid and equipment for years to come, making Russia break before Ukraine breaks.  That prospect also looks more and more bleak.

In short, the heady optimism of the first year--when Ukraine turned aside an invasion by a massive army and even recaptured enormous chunks of territory--is long gone.  I am not despairing, but it is hard to see this turning out well for a valiant people whose fortitude and love of freedom is not sufficiently recognized.

I don't necessarily agree that the prospect of taking back the occupied territories is becoming "more remote". IMO it was always a heavy lift, and the "heady optimism" of the first year of the war was exactly that. Ukraine did some hard fighting around Kupyansk, but when they broke through, they hit air. Their recapturing enormous chunks of territory was never due to the Ukraine massively defeating the Russians, but rather Ukraine fighting "smart" and taking advantage of Russians abject stupidity (or possibly total lack of troops). The telling event is that while Ukraine drove the Russians back around Kherson city, they allowed the Russians to retain that city for MONTHS. The Russians then retreated in relatively good order. That should never have been allowed. Ukraine apparently just didn't have the combat power to prevent it. After that, the Ukrainians allowed the Russians to build the Surovikin Line. Probably the Ukraine didn't have the combat power to prevent that either, but it does seem Ukraine under-estimated how much of a problem it would cause them.

All that said, Ukraine has made significant progress in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and is now making (belated) progress across the Dnipro river in Kherson Oblast. This is stretching Russian resources significantly. It is possible that the Ukrainian air force can cover a concentrated offensive that will break through the Russian defenses quickly enough that Russia is unable to react in time to prevent Ukraine cutting the land bridge. Ukraine is also working hard to threaten the lines of supply into Crimea over the Kerch bridge. If Ukraine can cut that supply line, the entire Russian southern front will collapse. Russia has shown a desire to keep attacking in Donbas, perhaps to draw Ukrainian strength away from the south. However, the side effect has been big losses of Russian troops and the retention of much Russian troop strength in the north. Ukraine has an opportunity to really change the war. It won't be easy, but it is possible. Russia knows this. To what extent they can stop it is TBD.

If Ukraine succeeds in the south, they can probably then play defense and force the Russians to give up the battle. Cutting Russia off from the Sea of Azov and having no fleet base in Crimea would be serious military (and political) setbacks. If the Ukraine cannot accomplish this (or something substantially similar) next year, IMO Ukraine will basically fall apart. Condemning Ukraine to an apparently endless war that cannot be won is politically impossible for Ukraine. Putin may want a "cease fire" because it would ensure the worst doesn't happen for him. Such an offer would also attract supporters in the EU and US who would just prefer the whole thing would "go away". Russia could then rely on Ukraine's strategic position deteriorating as Russia brings in more troops. Right now, Ukraine has it's problems and Russia has it's problems. A functioning Ukrainian air force could tip the balance, but Putin undoubtedly believes that given time, he can bring up enough troops that any notional Ukrainian breakthrough can be contained. A cease fire gives him time.

[Goose]

The way things are going with funding from the West, this offer is one that the Ukrainians may not be able to refuse, but also one they are not able to accept:

Supposed Cease Fire Offer

I'm sure he would be happy to stop the war if he is allowed to keep the 20% of Ukraine he has seized--especially Crimea.  Of course, the war would stop just for long enough for him to harden his gains, rearm, wait for a lull, and strike again--maybe Ukraine, maybe some other bordering state. 

On the other hand, the prospect of taking back the invaded territories gets more and more remote.  A peace settlement based on the current boundaries would probably only be acceptable to the Ukrainians if they had an absolute guarantee of protection for what is left of their country--which would mean NATO membership.  And with Hungary becoming a pro-Putin autocracy, that will never ever happen.

Under these circumstances, the only way I see a successful outcome is if the West vigorously delivers copious amounts of aid and equipment for years to come, making Russia break before Ukraine breaks.  That prospect also looks more and more bleak.

In short, the heady optimism of the first year--when Ukraine turned aside an invasion by a massive army and even recaptured enormous chunks of territory--is long gone.  I am not despairing, but it is hard to see this turning out well for a valiant people whose fortitude and love of freedom is not sufficiently recognized.

I don't necessarily agree that the prospect of taking back the occupied territories is becoming "more remote". IMO it was always a heavy lift, and the "heady optimism" of the first year of the war was exactly that. Ukraine did some hard fighting around Kupyansk, but when they broke through, they hit air. Their recapturing enormous chunks of territory was never due to the Ukraine massively defeating the Russians, but rather Ukraine fighting "smart" and taking advantage of Russians abject stupidity (or possibly total lack of troops). The telling event is that while Ukraine drove the Russians back around Kherson city, they allowed the Russians to retain that city for MONTHS. The Russians then retreated in relatively good order. That should never have been allowed. Ukraine apparently just didn't have the combat power to prevent it. After that, the Ukrainians allowed the Russians to build the Surovikin Line. Probably the Ukraine didn't have the combat power to prevent that either, but it does seem Ukraine under-estimated how much of a problem it would cause them.

All that said, Ukraine has made significant progress in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and is now making (belated) progress across the Dnipro river in Kherson Oblast. This is stretching Russian resources significantly. It is possible that the Ukrainian air force can cover a concentrated offensive that will break through the Russian defenses quickly enough that Russia is unable to react in time to prevent Ukraine cutting the land bridge. Ukraine is also working hard to threaten the lines of supply into Crimea over the Kerch bridge. If Ukraine can cut that supply line, the entire Russian southern front will collapse. Russia has shown a desire to keep attacking in Donbas, perhaps to draw Ukrainian strength away from the south. However, the side effect has been big losses of Russian troops and the retention of much Russian troop strength in the north. Ukraine has an opportunity to really change the war. It won't be easy, but it is possible. Russia knows this. To what extent they can stop it is TBD.

If Ukraine succeeds in the south, they can probably then play defense and force the Russians to give up the battle. Cutting Russia off from the Sea of Azov and having no fleet base in Crimea would be serious military (and political) setbacks. If the Ukraine cannot accomplish this (or something substantially similar) next year, IMO Ukraine will basically fall apart. Condemning Ukraine to an apparently endless war that cannot be won is politically impossible for Ukraine. Putin may want a "cease fire" because it would ensure the worst doesn't happen for him. Such an offer would also attract supporters in the EU and US who would just prefer the whole thing would "go away". Russia could then rely on Ukraine's strategic position deteriorating as Russia brings in more troops. Right now, Ukraine has it's problems and Russia has it's problems. A functioning Ukrainian air force could tip the balance, but Putin undoubtedly believes that given time, he can bring up enough troops that any notional Ukrainian breakthrough can be contained. A cease fire gives him time.