[teejers1]

I wish much of the time spent blaming this or that were actually spent constructively finding ways to reduce the spread, help those that are sick or have already been sick, help those for whom this disruption has hit hard economically or educationally or psychologically, or ...

I appreciate those that are working their tail ends off toward the positive goals (whether they be medical workers, government statistics people, the critical workers, the people trying to do case tracing, or so many others).  Unfortunately, there will be mistakes made and there will be those that will blame every misstep on someone or the other.

The vehemence I see on this board is discomforting.  I've thought of dropping off because of the endless repetition of the same opinions we've seen for months.  But, I can't monitor all areas, and some on this board do bring useful information that I might otherwise miss.

You can't drop off.  If you do, then who will keep us abreast of the CA and SCC data?  Seriously.

---

Getting this back on topic...

https://www.espn.com/college-football/st...-viability

At least 5 Big Ten athletes have been found to have Myocarditis and there are more from other conferences. Would be nice to know how many have been tested and how many have shown Myocarditis. But, if this is happening in athletes, what about the rest of the population who is getting infected?

I agree this is potentially very alarming.
But what I have no sense of is this:  is such heart inflammation (or whatever) an omnipresent, common, rare, never kind of thing after suffering some kind of viral ailment?  And can kids have it irrespective of Covid 19?
Separately, can your condition recede with time?  Or is it permanent?

That was a long article with partial answers here and there.  But maybe that's all we can expect now, as things are still fluid.

[teejers1]

I wish much of the time spent blaming this or that were actually spent constructively finding ways to reduce the spread, help those that are sick or have already been sick, help those for whom this disruption has hit hard economically or educationally or psychologically, or ...

I appreciate those that are working their tail ends off toward the positive goals (whether they be medical workers, government statistics people, the critical workers, the people trying to do case tracing, or so many others).  Unfortunately, there will be mistakes made and there will be those that will blame every misstep on someone or the other.

The vehemence I see on this board is discomforting.  I've thought of dropping off because of the endless repetition of the same opinions we've seen for months.  But, I can't monitor all areas, and some on this board do bring useful information that I might otherwise miss.

You can't drop off.  If you do, then who will keep us abreast of the CA and SCC data?  Seriously.

---

Getting this back on topic...

https://www.espn.com/college-football/st...-viability

At least 5 Big Ten athletes have been found to have Myocarditis and there are more from other conferences. Would be nice to know how many have been tested and how many have shown Myocarditis. But, if this is happening in athletes, what about the rest of the population who is getting infected?

I agree this is potentially very alarming.
But what I have no sense of is this:  is such heart inflammation (or whatever) an omnipresent, common, rare, never kind of thing after suffering some kind of viral ailment?  And can kids have it irrespective of Covid 19?
Separately, can your condition recede with time?  Or is it permanent?

That was a long article with partial answers here and there.  But maybe that's all we can expect now, as things are still fluid.

[dabigv13]

Myocarditis is usually caused by viral infections. It is rare with most viral infections however, though seems more common with covid, perhaps due to some of its intrinsic properties (affinity for ACE2 receptors which are expressed in heart tissue). It is rare overall. The issue with covid is its pandemic nature however due to low or absent community immunity. Most infectious diseases don't infect large percentages of the population rapidly.

I believe most cases do improve without significant treatment over a period of months, though sometimes there can be scarring or arrhythmias. What percentage that will be in covid derived myocarditis is obviously unknown at this time. I know there are more knowledgeable posters here than myself about the heart though.

[dabigv13]

Myocarditis is usually caused by viral infections. It is rare with most viral infections however, though seems more common with covid, perhaps due to some of its intrinsic properties (affinity for ACE2 receptors which are expressed in heart tissue). It is rare overall. The issue with covid is its pandemic nature however due to low or absent community immunity. Most infectious diseases don't infect large percentages of the population rapidly.

I believe most cases do improve without significant treatment over a period of months, though sometimes there can be scarring or arrhythmias. What percentage that will be in covid derived myocarditis is obviously unknown at this time. I know there are more knowledgeable posters here than myself about the heart though.

[M T]

  Just like ... Spanish Flu ....  Naming pandemics for the region in which they emanate has always need the case.

There should be enormous world pressure put on China to end these markets. Right?  Seems pretty obvious to me.

You might want to check your sources.  In particular, "Spanish Flu" is a really poor example to use.  I'd question why the "Wuhan Virus" name is important to some.  Do you regret that HIV wasn't called "Los Angeles HIV" since it was first recognized as a syndrome in Los Angeles (not that it first occurred in Los Angeles, just that it was first recognized in Los Angeles)?

The Wuhan market where the disease transferred from person to person in December was closed on Jan. 1.  Wuhan banned live markets entirely 3 weeks later; China banned wildlife sale & consumption country-wide in February.  So, I'm unclear why you currently say "There should be enormous world pressure put on China to end these markets."    Perhaps your sources are not informing you properly, and you should find more or different sources, or check things on your own.

I would have thought by now you've realized that the Wuhan live market had no more to do with the spread in Wuhan than (say) a big box store does to the spread in the US.  The earliest known case contracted symptoms on Dec. 1 (though you'll see Nov. 17, which is backing his case up 2 weeks to suggest when he may have been infected), and he had no known connection to the market.


Do people think live crab or lobster is better in San Francisco, Seattle, Boston (etc) or Wuhan?

[M T]

  Just like ... Spanish Flu ....  Naming pandemics for the region in which they emanate has always need the case.

There should be enormous world pressure put on China to end these markets. Right?  Seems pretty obvious to me.

You might want to check your sources.  In particular, "Spanish Flu" is a really poor example to use.  I'd question why the "Wuhan Virus" name is important to some.  Do you regret that HIV wasn't called "Los Angeles HIV" since it was first recognized as a syndrome in Los Angeles (not that it first occurred in Los Angeles, just that it was first recognized in Los Angeles)?

The Wuhan market where the disease transferred from person to person in December was closed on Jan. 1.  Wuhan banned live markets entirely 3 weeks later; China banned wildlife sale & consumption country-wide in February.  So, I'm unclear why you currently say "There should be enormous world pressure put on China to end these markets."    Perhaps your sources are not informing you properly, and you should find more or different sources, or check things on your own.

I would have thought by now you've realized that the Wuhan live market had no more to do with the spread in Wuhan than (say) a big box store does to the spread in the US.  The earliest known case contracted symptoms on Dec. 1 (though you'll see Nov. 17, which is backing his case up 2 weeks to suggest when he may have been infected), and he had no known connection to the market.


Do people think live crab or lobster is better in San Francisco, Seattle, Boston (etc) or Wuhan?

[BostonCard]

I agree this is potentially very alarming.
But what I have no sense of is this:  is such heart inflammation (or whatever) an omnipresent, common, rare, never kind of thing after suffering some kind of viral ailment?  And can kids have it irrespective of Covid 19?
Separately, can your condition recede with time?  Or is it permanent?

That was a long article with partial answers here and there.  But maybe that's all we can expect now, as things are still fluid.

Good questions.  Influenza doesn't cause a myocarditis, but there are many viruses which do, most prominently coxsakieviruses.  Myocarditis is pretty rare in children (I saw an incidence of 1 or 2 kids per 100,000, but that includes all types of pediartic myocarditis, of which viral is the most common cause).  On the other hand, that is just diagnosed (symptomatic) myocarditis; we don't know how many kids with viral illnesses would have shown inflammation in the heart tissue had they had MRI's in the period after infection.

COVID-19 does seem to cause it more commonly than other diseases, though I'm still not completely clear if it is caused by direct viral infection of the heart, or as a systemic inflammatory response.  I most will recover, though that is speculation on my part.  We ultimately don't know for sure what the long-term consequences of the virus are.  We are 9 months from the first person having been infected, so not a lot of long-term follow-up data.

BC

[BostonCard]

I agree this is potentially very alarming.
But what I have no sense of is this:  is such heart inflammation (or whatever) an omnipresent, common, rare, never kind of thing after suffering some kind of viral ailment?  And can kids have it irrespective of Covid 19?
Separately, can your condition recede with time?  Or is it permanent?

That was a long article with partial answers here and there.  But maybe that's all we can expect now, as things are still fluid.

Good questions.  Influenza doesn't cause a myocarditis, but there are many viruses which do, most prominently coxsakieviruses.  Myocarditis is pretty rare in children (I saw an incidence of 1 or 2 kids per 100,000, but that includes all types of pediartic myocarditis, of which viral is the most common cause).  On the other hand, that is just diagnosed (symptomatic) myocarditis; we don't know how many kids with viral illnesses would have shown inflammation in the heart tissue had they had MRI's in the period after infection.

COVID-19 does seem to cause it more commonly than other diseases, though I'm still not completely clear if it is caused by direct viral infection of the heart, or as a systemic inflammatory response.  I most will recover, though that is speculation on my part.  We ultimately don't know for sure what the long-term consequences of the virus are.  We are 9 months from the first person having been infected, so not a lot of long-term follow-up data.

BC

[M T]

This review
"COVID-19 cardiac injury: Implications for long-term surveillance and outcomes in survivors"
says

Up to 20%–30% of patients hospitalized with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have evidence of myocardial involvement.

The review does talk about long term effects of myocarditis (of at least 2 different types), but I don't feel I can summarize them properly.
From the conclusions:

Based on other studies of patients with recovered myocarditis, type 2 MI, or other cardiac injury, it is expected that some patients will have subclinical and possibly overt cardiovascular abnormalities. Patients with ostensibly recovered cardiac function may still be at risk of coronary artery disease, atrial fibrillation, or ventricular arrhythmias.
...
We recommend standard electrocardiogram and echocardiogram recordings and possibly cardiac monitoring 2–6 months postrecovery, with the recognition that even these tests may not detect subtle clinical abnormalities. Consideration should be given for advanced imaging (ie, MRI with gadolinium enhancement or echocardiographic strain) when initial testing reveals abnormalities or as clinically indicated

[M T]

This review
"COVID-19 cardiac injury: Implications for long-term surveillance and outcomes in survivors"
says

Up to 20%–30% of patients hospitalized with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have evidence of myocardial involvement.

The review does talk about long term effects of myocarditis (of at least 2 different types), but I don't feel I can summarize them properly.
From the conclusions:

Based on other studies of patients with recovered myocarditis, type 2 MI, or other cardiac injury, it is expected that some patients will have subclinical and possibly overt cardiovascular abnormalities. Patients with ostensibly recovered cardiac function may still be at risk of coronary artery disease, atrial fibrillation, or ventricular arrhythmias.
...
We recommend standard electrocardiogram and echocardiogram recordings and possibly cardiac monitoring 2–6 months postrecovery, with the recognition that even these tests may not detect subtle clinical abnormalities. Consideration should be given for advanced imaging (ie, MRI with gadolinium enhancement or echocardiographic strain) when initial testing reveals abnormalities or as clinically indicated

[OutsiderFan]

Hoo boy. We literally have the potential for the SEC, ACC, and Big-12 being the only conferences in the entire NCAA playing Fall sports.

I get the idea that nobody has the perfect answer for how to manage the situation. But I would use Sweden as a cautionary tale. They thought "let's be different and not lockdown" and we all know what happened to them. They ended up saying "we made a mistake." To me, if I were in charge of college sports conferences and their schools, I would want to do everything possible to take this potential off the table.

The Big Ten and the Pac-12, are giving them cover to take this opportunity for a mistake off the table, and they appear willing to not take them up on the opportunity.

And this is bonkers: Nebraska put out a statement saying they don't agree with the Big Ten and haven't given up playing in the Fall.

[OutsiderFan]

Hoo boy. We literally have the potential for the SEC, ACC, and Big-12 being the only conferences in the entire NCAA playing Fall sports.

I get the idea that nobody has the perfect answer for how to manage the situation. But I would use Sweden as a cautionary tale. They thought "let's be different and not lockdown" and we all know what happened to them. They ended up saying "we made a mistake." To me, if I were in charge of college sports conferences and their schools, I would want to do everything possible to take this potential off the table.

The Big Ten and the Pac-12, are giving them cover to take this opportunity for a mistake off the table, and they appear willing to not take them up on the opportunity.

And this is bonkers: Nebraska put out a statement saying they don't agree with the Big Ten and haven't given up playing in the Fall.

[chrisk]

How would SEC react to be under the national spotlight by itself? Would it inspire all of the schools to dot every i and cross every t and pull off a successful season? Or would we see the cancellations and positives we have seen in MLB?

[chrisk]

How would SEC react to be under the national spotlight by itself? Would it inspire all of the schools to dot every i and cross every t and pull off a successful season? Or would we see the cancellations and positives we have seen in MLB?

[Farm93]

How would SEC react to be under the national spotlight by itself?  Would it inspire all of the schools to dot every i and cross every t and pull off a successful season?  Or would we see the cancellations and positives we have seen in MLB?

In fairness to the SEC administrators, the schools exist in states where public schools are open now even in places where hundreds of cases have already be identified in school districts.   It has been deemed safe enough for the governors to allow public schools to open AND for elected officials with access to the health data to encourage HS and college sports.   Given that reality on the ground why should the colleges in that area be expected to exceed the safety guidelines, standards and expectations of their states.

However, I am very happy that Stanford and the Pac-12 schools are in the camp with the Mountain West, the MAC, the Ivy League and the Big Ten and not in the camp with the SEC, ACC and Big 12.

My guess is that as early as October we will realize the Pac-12, Ivy League and BigTen are a bit stronger in pandemic related medicine and science issues than the SEC.

[Farm93]

How would SEC react to be under the national spotlight by itself?  Would it inspire all of the schools to dot every i and cross every t and pull off a successful season?  Or would we see the cancellations and positives we have seen in MLB?

In fairness to the SEC administrators, the schools exist in states where public schools are open now even in places where hundreds of cases have already be identified in school districts.   It has been deemed safe enough for the governors to allow public schools to open AND for elected officials with access to the health data to encourage HS and college sports.   Given that reality on the ground why should the colleges in that area be expected to exceed the safety guidelines, standards and expectations of their states.

However, I am very happy that Stanford and the Pac-12 schools are in the camp with the Mountain West, the MAC, the Ivy League and the Big Ten and not in the camp with the SEC, ACC and Big 12.

My guess is that as early as October we will realize the Pac-12, Ivy League and BigTen are a bit stronger in pandemic related medicine and science issues than the SEC.

[teejers1]

I get the idea that nobody has the perfect answer for how to manage the situation. But I would use Sweden as a cautionary tale. They thought "let's be different and not lockdown" and we all know what happened to them. They ended up saying "we made a mistake." To me, if I were in charge of college sports conferences and their schools, I would want to do everything possible to take this potential off the table.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-53664354

(I do think Sweden has acknowledged making a mistake in not locking down older folks more stringently.)

But I generally agree that college football being played by SEC only (or SEC and a few Big 10 or Big 12 teams) doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

[teejers1]

I get the idea that nobody has the perfect answer for how to manage the situation. But I would use Sweden as a cautionary tale. They thought "let's be different and not lockdown" and we all know what happened to them. They ended up saying "we made a mistake." To me, if I were in charge of college sports conferences and their schools, I would want to do everything possible to take this potential off the table.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-53664354

(I do think Sweden has acknowledged making a mistake in not locking down older folks more stringently.)

But I generally agree that college football being played by SEC only (or SEC and a few Big 10 or Big 12 teams) doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

[OutsiderFan]

Piggybacking on post I just made in the Myocarditis discussion thread...

I now believe the Big Ten and Pac-12 made the right call, and the remaining three conferences will have no choice but to shut down. It IS all about Myocarditis right now. But let's paint the full picture.

Start with the fact the schools must be able to do mass testing of everyone very frequently to inhibit virus spread and then isolate those infected and those known to have been in contact. The Pac-12's Medical Advisory Committee flat out said they don't have the capacity to adequately test, and they would need to do even more testing leading up to games against other schools  That's strike one, and makes Jon Wilner look like a clown for suggesting somehow that the State of California's "maybe you could test 25% of the team per week" was somehow viable (more on Wilner in a bit).

Then, the medical advisors said that even if the schools can keep their athletes safe on campus and they all test clean, the idea of sending them out to travel to play games basically opens up and compromises the bubble they are in, commercial aircraft, hotels, etc. That's strike two.

Finally, there is Myocarditis. The Big Ten and Pac-12 have both had athletes be diagnosed with Myocarditis already, but I don't think we have the denominator of all tests done. My guess is not every athlete who has had Covid-19 has been tested for Tropinin levels, but an alarming number of those who have been tested have been diagnosed. So now you not only need massive testing capacity they don't have, to stop virus spread effectively, but they also have to test all positive cases for Myocarditis and then there is this from the Mayo Clinic:

In many cases, myocarditis improves on its own or with treatment, leading to a complete recovery. Myocarditis treatment focuses on the cause and the symptoms, such as heart failure. In mild cases, persons should avoid competitive sports for at least three to six months.

So now you have a situation where anyone who has had Covid-19 should be avoiding competitive sports for 3-6 months. I think many of us have thought about the health and liability concern as a long-term issue, but here's a real live situation where the liability could be this season.  Having kids return from Covid-19, not testing them for Myocarditis, and bringing them back to sports, only to see them have cardiac failures and possibly die, is not a risk any responsible leader would take. Strike Three.

Clemson had what, 37 players test positive? Have they been tested for Myocarditis? Can it run a brutal conditioning camp to prepare for a season? Will they pull back on conditioning to mitigate risk with 37 players having had Covid-19?  Now, what if they have an OL test positive on Wednesday before a Saturday game?  The protocol is to isolate the infected, but also everyone around them, you know, like the other OL.  How can you play a game with no OL?  And how can you play a game with a group that was around an infected person? 

There simply is no way in hell the ACC, Big-12 or SEC can go forward if they in fact really do care for the safety of their athletes as the #1 priority.  People will say "it can be done." I would argue, we could have put a man on the first rocket we built to go outside Earth's atmosphere and had it work. We didn't because it was way too risky, and our caution was justified when the first rocket exploded on the launch pad.

On Wilner:  He has been cheerleading for there to be Fall Pac-12 sports played. My guess is he is thinking about his own livelihood as a Pac-12 reporter more than he is the safety of the athletes. Just sucks to see a reporter prioritize personal interests over the health and safety of others.

[OutsiderFan]

Piggybacking on post I just made in the Myocarditis discussion thread...

I now believe the Big Ten and Pac-12 made the right call, and the remaining three conferences will have no choice but to shut down. It IS all about Myocarditis right now. But let's paint the full picture.

Start with the fact the schools must be able to do mass testing of everyone very frequently to inhibit virus spread and then isolate those infected and those known to have been in contact. The Pac-12's Medical Advisory Committee flat out said they don't have the capacity to adequately test, and they would need to do even more testing leading up to games against other schools  That's strike one, and makes Jon Wilner look like a clown for suggesting somehow that the State of California's "maybe you could test 25% of the team per week" was somehow viable (more on Wilner in a bit).

Then, the medical advisors said that even if the schools can keep their athletes safe on campus and they all test clean, the idea of sending them out to travel to play games basically opens up and compromises the bubble they are in, commercial aircraft, hotels, etc. That's strike two.

Finally, there is Myocarditis. The Big Ten and Pac-12 have both had athletes be diagnosed with Myocarditis already, but I don't think we have the denominator of all tests done. My guess is not every athlete who has had Covid-19 has been tested for Tropinin levels, but an alarming number of those who have been tested have been diagnosed. So now you not only need massive testing capacity they don't have, to stop virus spread effectively, but they also have to test all positive cases for Myocarditis and then there is this from the Mayo Clinic:

In many cases, myocarditis improves on its own or with treatment, leading to a complete recovery. Myocarditis treatment focuses on the cause and the symptoms, such as heart failure. In mild cases, persons should avoid competitive sports for at least three to six months.

So now you have a situation where anyone who has had Covid-19 should be avoiding competitive sports for 3-6 months. I think many of us have thought about the health and liability concern as a long-term issue, but here's a real live situation where the liability could be this season.  Having kids return from Covid-19, not testing them for Myocarditis, and bringing them back to sports, only to see them have cardiac failures and possibly die, is not a risk any responsible leader would take. Strike Three.

Clemson had what, 37 players test positive? Have they been tested for Myocarditis? Can it run a brutal conditioning camp to prepare for a season? Will they pull back on conditioning to mitigate risk with 37 players having had Covid-19?  Now, what if they have an OL test positive on Wednesday before a Saturday game?  The protocol is to isolate the infected, but also everyone around them, you know, like the other OL.  How can you play a game with no OL?  And how can you play a game with a group that was around an infected person? 

There simply is no way in hell the ACC, Big-12 or SEC can go forward if they in fact really do care for the safety of their athletes as the #1 priority.  People will say "it can be done." I would argue, we could have put a man on the first rocket we built to go outside Earth's atmosphere and had it work. We didn't because it was way too risky, and our caution was justified when the first rocket exploded on the launch pad.

On Wilner:  He has been cheerleading for there to be Fall Pac-12 sports played. My guess is he is thinking about his own livelihood as a Pac-12 reporter more than he is the safety of the athletes. Just sucks to see a reporter prioritize personal interests over the health and safety of others.

[Farm93]

At some point the conferences in the south will be trying to travel through a region with significant COVID19 issues.   The early rate of spread in the public schools in the region makes it so hard to believe all will be viable through October & November.

I also doubt football will be played in the Feb-May window.   Even if it is played then a number of schools, coaches and athletes will need to decide if the Spring 2021 season is a good idea.   Risk of COVID, NFL combine and/or a year of eligibility for Pac-12 After Fall without fans are all in the mix. 

How many scholarships will really be available for the incoming recruiting class? 
     If Spring 2021 is played but many/most underclassmen or non-starters redshirt?
     If Spring 2021 is not played at all?

I mentioned this next one back in ~late March, I think, but since it is closer to reality now....
Would Stanford let UCB host the Fall 2021 Big Game to create better even & odd year schedule balance for Stanford Football? 
I am sure Stanford, like most D1 schools, will need revenue in the 2021-2022 year, but this may become the best chance to address a chronic scheduling issue for Stanford football.   And UCB should be willing to accept that type of charitable offer from Stanford given the UCB AD's daunting debt obligations.

[Farm93]

At some point the conferences in the south will be trying to travel through a region with significant COVID19 issues.   The early rate of spread in the public schools in the region makes it so hard to believe all will be viable through October & November.

I also doubt football will be played in the Feb-May window.   Even if it is played then a number of schools, coaches and athletes will need to decide if the Spring 2021 season is a good idea.   Risk of COVID, NFL combine and/or a year of eligibility for Pac-12 After Fall without fans are all in the mix. 

How many scholarships will really be available for the incoming recruiting class? 
     If Spring 2021 is played but many/most underclassmen or non-starters redshirt?
     If Spring 2021 is not played at all?

I mentioned this next one back in ~late March, I think, but since it is closer to reality now....
Would Stanford let UCB host the Fall 2021 Big Game to create better even & odd year schedule balance for Stanford Football? 
I am sure Stanford, like most D1 schools, will need revenue in the 2021-2022 year, but this may become the best chance to address a chronic scheduling issue for Stanford football.   And UCB should be willing to accept that type of charitable offer from Stanford given the UCB AD's daunting debt obligations.

[82lsju]

There simply is no way in hell the ACC, Big-12 or SEC can go forward if they in fact really do care for the safety of their athletes as the #1 priority.  People will say "it can be done." I would argue, we could have put a man on the first rocket we built to go outside Earth's atmosphere and had it work. We didn't because it was way too risky, and our caution was justified when the first rocket exploded on the launch pad.

I don't think any of the P5 conferences truly put player safety first, I think they are making business decisions and player safety is one of many  factors.

Each of the Big12, ACC, and SEC could probably at least start the season.  They could set up the schedule to minimize driving distances for the games and take their own buses instead of flying.  

Do I think this is a good idea, no.  

Do I think at least one of them try this, yes.

[82lsju]

There simply is no way in hell the ACC, Big-12 or SEC can go forward if they in fact really do care for the safety of their athletes as the #1 priority.  People will say "it can be done." I would argue, we could have put a man on the first rocket we built to go outside Earth's atmosphere and had it work. We didn't because it was way too risky, and our caution was justified when the first rocket exploded on the launch pad.

I don't think any of the P5 conferences truly put player safety first, I think they are making business decisions and player safety is one of many  factors.

Each of the Big12, ACC, and SEC could probably at least start the season.  They could set up the schedule to minimize driving distances for the games and take their own buses instead of flying.  

Do I think this is a good idea, no.  

Do I think at least one of them try this, yes.

[teejers1]

Piggybacking on post I just made in the Myocarditis discussion thread...

I now believe the Big Ten and Pac-12 made the right call, and the remaining three conferences will have no choice but to shut down. It IS all about Myocarditis right now. But let's paint the full picture.

Start with the fact the schools must be able to do mass testing of everyone very frequently to inhibit virus spread and then isolate those infected and those known to have been in contact. The Pac-12's Medical Advisory Committee flat out said they don't have the capacity to adequately test, and they would need to do even more testing leading up to games against other schools  That's strike one, and makes Jon Wilner look like a clown for suggesting somehow that the State of California's "maybe you could test 25% of the team per week" was somehow viable (more on Wilner in a bit).

Then, the medical advisors said that even if the schools can keep their athletes safe on campus and they all test clean, the idea of sending them out to travel to play games basically opens up and compromises the bubble they are in, commercial aircraft, hotels, etc. That's strike two.

Finally, there is Myocarditis. The Big Ten and Pac-12 have both had athletes be diagnosed with Myocarditis already, but I don't think we have the denominator of all tests done. My guess is not every athlete who has had Covid-19 has been tested for Tropinin levels, but an alarming number of those who have been tested have been diagnosed. So now you not only need massive testing capacity they don't have, to stop virus spread effectively, but they also have to test all positive cases for Myocarditis and then there is this from the Mayo Clinic:

In many cases, myocarditis improves on its own or with treatment, leading to a complete recovery. Myocarditis treatment focuses on the cause and the symptoms, such as heart failure. In mild cases, persons should avoid competitive sports for at least three to six months.

So now you have a situation where anyone who has had Covid-19 should be avoiding competitive sports for 3-6 months. I think many of us have thought about the health and liability concern as a long-term issue, but here's a real live situation where the liability could be this season.  Having kids return from Covid-19, not testing them for Myocarditis, and bringing them back to sports, only to see them have cardiac failures and possibly die, is not a risk any responsible leader would take. Strike Three.

Clemson had what, 37 players test positive? Have they been tested for Myocarditis? Can it run a brutal conditioning camp to prepare for a season? Will they pull back on conditioning to mitigate risk with 37 players having had Covid-19?  Now, what if they have an OL test positive on Wednesday before a Saturday game?  The protocol is to isolate the infected, but also everyone around them, you know, like the other OL.  How can you play a game with no OL?  And how can you play a game with a group that was around an infected person? 

There simply is no way in hell the ACC, Big-12 or SEC can go forward if they in fact really do care for the safety of their athletes as the #1 priority.  People will say "it can be done." I would argue, we could have put a man on the first rocket we built to go outside Earth's atmosphere and had it work. We didn't because it was way too risky, and our caution was justified when the first rocket exploded on the launch pad.

On Wilner:  He has been cheerleading for there to be Fall Pac-12 sports played. My guess is he is thinking about his own livelihood as a Pac-12 reporter more than he is the safety of the athletes. Just sucks to see a reporter prioritize personal interests over the health and safety of others.

Yes, when people are aware of the known risks and say "we're willing to try and move forward," then you need the unknown risks to act as the trump card.  And that appears to be what all the froth around myocarditis is.  

I'm no doc - nor have I read much up on it - but I will say as a layman reading the articles, I wonder (a) if the condition is that uncommon outside of Covid world (or more directly, is the presence in Covid patients akin to presence in non-Covid patients, (b) if the condition is viewed as disabling in non-Covid patients (or was it just never considered because no one gave it much thought?), and © is it feasible to tests for signatures of myocarditis on those who test positive Covid (and should you do it for everyone, regardless?).  I guess what I'd like to get a better handle on is this:  are we raising alarm on myocarditis because it is something that we've always been concerned about/looked for in athletes recovering from viral encounters, or is the alarm being raised here only because we're in Covid world?  And if the latter, is it justified, all things considered.

My sense is the answer to the last question is "yes," and that;s probably sufficient to require postponement.  But it will be interesting to see what becomes "the convention" and what protocols are followed after the pandemic is under better control when it comes to athletes getting "green light" to compete after testing positive for Corona (or other infections that can lead to myocarditis).

[teejers1]

Piggybacking on post I just made in the Myocarditis discussion thread...

I now believe the Big Ten and Pac-12 made the right call, and the remaining three conferences will have no choice but to shut down. It IS all about Myocarditis right now. But let's paint the full picture.

Start with the fact the schools must be able to do mass testing of everyone very frequently to inhibit virus spread and then isolate those infected and those known to have been in contact. The Pac-12's Medical Advisory Committee flat out said they don't have the capacity to adequately test, and they would need to do even more testing leading up to games against other schools  That's strike one, and makes Jon Wilner look like a clown for suggesting somehow that the State of California's "maybe you could test 25% of the team per week" was somehow viable (more on Wilner in a bit).

Then, the medical advisors said that even if the schools can keep their athletes safe on campus and they all test clean, the idea of sending them out to travel to play games basically opens up and compromises the bubble they are in, commercial aircraft, hotels, etc. That's strike two.

Finally, there is Myocarditis. The Big Ten and Pac-12 have both had athletes be diagnosed with Myocarditis already, but I don't think we have the denominator of all tests done. My guess is not every athlete who has had Covid-19 has been tested for Tropinin levels, but an alarming number of those who have been tested have been diagnosed. So now you not only need massive testing capacity they don't have, to stop virus spread effectively, but they also have to test all positive cases for Myocarditis and then there is this from the Mayo Clinic:

In many cases, myocarditis improves on its own or with treatment, leading to a complete recovery. Myocarditis treatment focuses on the cause and the symptoms, such as heart failure. In mild cases, persons should avoid competitive sports for at least three to six months.

So now you have a situation where anyone who has had Covid-19 should be avoiding competitive sports for 3-6 months. I think many of us have thought about the health and liability concern as a long-term issue, but here's a real live situation where the liability could be this season.  Having kids return from Covid-19, not testing them for Myocarditis, and bringing them back to sports, only to see them have cardiac failures and possibly die, is not a risk any responsible leader would take. Strike Three.

Clemson had what, 37 players test positive? Have they been tested for Myocarditis? Can it run a brutal conditioning camp to prepare for a season? Will they pull back on conditioning to mitigate risk with 37 players having had Covid-19?  Now, what if they have an OL test positive on Wednesday before a Saturday game?  The protocol is to isolate the infected, but also everyone around them, you know, like the other OL.  How can you play a game with no OL?  And how can you play a game with a group that was around an infected person? 

There simply is no way in hell the ACC, Big-12 or SEC can go forward if they in fact really do care for the safety of their athletes as the #1 priority.  People will say "it can be done." I would argue, we could have put a man on the first rocket we built to go outside Earth's atmosphere and had it work. We didn't because it was way too risky, and our caution was justified when the first rocket exploded on the launch pad.

On Wilner:  He has been cheerleading for there to be Fall Pac-12 sports played. My guess is he is thinking about his own livelihood as a Pac-12 reporter more than he is the safety of the athletes. Just sucks to see a reporter prioritize personal interests over the health and safety of others.

Yes, when people are aware of the known risks and say "we're willing to try and move forward," then you need the unknown risks to act as the trump card.  And that appears to be what all the froth around myocarditis is.  

I'm no doc - nor have I read much up on it - but I will say as a layman reading the articles, I wonder (a) if the condition is that uncommon outside of Covid world (or more directly, is the presence in Covid patients akin to presence in non-Covid patients, (b) if the condition is viewed as disabling in non-Covid patients (or was it just never considered because no one gave it much thought?), and © is it feasible to tests for signatures of myocarditis on those who test positive Covid (and should you do it for everyone, regardless?).  I guess what I'd like to get a better handle on is this:  are we raising alarm on myocarditis because it is something that we've always been concerned about/looked for in athletes recovering from viral encounters, or is the alarm being raised here only because we're in Covid world?  And if the latter, is it justified, all things considered.

My sense is the answer to the last question is "yes," and that;s probably sufficient to require postponement.  But it will be interesting to see what becomes "the convention" and what protocols are followed after the pandemic is under better control when it comes to athletes getting "green light" to compete after testing positive for Corona (or other infections that can lead to myocarditis).

[Farm93]

Each of the Big12, ACC, and SEC could probably at least start the season.  They could set up the schedule to minimize driving distances for the games and take their own buses instead of flying.  

Even 2 or 3 games would allow them to capture a good chunk of their TV revenue, I guess.
Most of the SEC non-football teams could EASILY get to other schools in conference on buses to reduce the number of people they contact. 

I think the BigTen was pretty open about their concerns about liability.
Any adverse events related to positive cases will create interesting liability issues for the science-free three now that the BigTen and Pac-12 decided there were too many medical risks at this stage.

And as a quick reminder it is not just about player health, schools really should be including coach, team staff and facilities personnel too.   A lot of the people in those support functions tend to be in higher risk groups for the coronavirus.

Hope for those players it all works out. 
At least the football players are doing this for glory, fame and school TV revenue.
The women's soccer and women's volleyball teams will be taking on the risk for....Title IX compliance.

Interestingly on twitter the SEC fans seem to believe this BigTen/Pac-12 decision will be a recruiting bonanza for their schools.
It is as if none of them have realized that if there is a single COVID death or long-term disability it will be a recruiting disaster.
Guess this helps explain how the South has had a massive COVID19 surge during a time that should have been a summer lull in cases.

[Farm93]

Each of the Big12, ACC, and SEC could probably at least start the season.  They could set up the schedule to minimize driving distances for the games and take their own buses instead of flying.  

Even 2 or 3 games would allow them to capture a good chunk of their TV revenue, I guess.
Most of the SEC non-football teams could EASILY get to other schools in conference on buses to reduce the number of people they contact. 

I think the BigTen was pretty open about their concerns about liability.
Any adverse events related to positive cases will create interesting liability issues for the science-free three now that the BigTen and Pac-12 decided there were too many medical risks at this stage.

And as a quick reminder it is not just about player health, schools really should be including coach, team staff and facilities personnel too.   A lot of the people in those support functions tend to be in higher risk groups for the coronavirus.

Hope for those players it all works out. 
At least the football players are doing this for glory, fame and school TV revenue.
The women's soccer and women's volleyball teams will be taking on the risk for....Title IX compliance.

Interestingly on twitter the SEC fans seem to believe this BigTen/Pac-12 decision will be a recruiting bonanza for their schools.
It is as if none of them have realized that if there is a single COVID death or long-term disability it will be a recruiting disaster.
Guess this helps explain how the South has had a massive COVID19 surge during a time that should have been a summer lull in cases.

[OutsiderFan]

Guess this helps explain how the South has had a massive COVID19 surge during a time that should have been a summer lull in cases.

If there is one thing I took away from living in Memphis for six months it is this: The South is slow. There is something in the culture that puts extra steps in everything so it evolves at glacial speed.

Even the way they pronounce their words puts extra syllables in them! I say "downtown" and a southerner says "day-own tay-own." 

So it isn't at all surprising that the South is slow to respond to a pandemic or recognize the risks it poses for college athletes. Not. Even. A little.

[OutsiderFan]

Guess this helps explain how the South has had a massive COVID19 surge during a time that should have been a summer lull in cases.

If there is one thing I took away from living in Memphis for six months it is this: The South is slow. There is something in the culture that puts extra steps in everything so it evolves at glacial speed.

Even the way they pronounce their words puts extra syllables in them! I say "downtown" and a southerner says "day-own tay-own." 

So it isn't at all surprising that the South is slow to respond to a pandemic or recognize the risks it poses for college athletes. Not. Even. A little.

[82lsju]

the PAC-12 Pac-12 Student-Athlete Health and Well-being Initiative (SAHWBI) report

Health and Well Being Considerations for Pac-12 Institutions

Guidance for Local Planning for Return to Sporting Activity: Updated 8/10/2020

https://xs.pac-12.com/2020-08/Pac-12%20C...0.2020.pdf

[82lsju]

the PAC-12 Pac-12 Student-Athlete Health and Well-being Initiative (SAHWBI) report

Health and Well Being Considerations for Pac-12 Institutions

Guidance for Local Planning for Return to Sporting Activity: Updated 8/10/2020

https://xs.pac-12.com/2020-08/Pac-12%20C...0.2020.pdf

[82lsju]

from the Big 12....full speed ahead

The Big 12 Board of Directors last evening agreed to proceed with plans for the fall sports’ seasons.
 
“The Board continues to believe that the health and well-being of our student-athletes must guide all decisions” commented Board of Directors Chairman and TCU Chancellor Victor Boschini. “To that end the Board has consistently relied on the advice and counsel of top medical experts to determine the viability of available options.  Our student-athletes want to compete, and it is the Board’s collective opinion that sports can be conducted safely and in concert with the best interests of their well-being.  We remain vigilant in monitoring the trends and effects of COVID 19 as we learn more about the virus.  If at any point our scientists and doctors conclude that our institutions cannot provide a safe and appropriate environment for our participants, we will change course.”

https://big12sports.com/news/2020/8/12/c...ports.aspx

[82lsju]

from the Big 12....full speed ahead

The Big 12 Board of Directors last evening agreed to proceed with plans for the fall sports’ seasons.
 
“The Board continues to believe that the health and well-being of our student-athletes must guide all decisions” commented Board of Directors Chairman and TCU Chancellor Victor Boschini. “To that end the Board has consistently relied on the advice and counsel of top medical experts to determine the viability of available options.  Our student-athletes want to compete, and it is the Board’s collective opinion that sports can be conducted safely and in concert with the best interests of their well-being.  We remain vigilant in monitoring the trends and effects of COVID 19 as we learn more about the virus.  If at any point our scientists and doctors conclude that our institutions cannot provide a safe and appropriate environment for our participants, we will change course.”

https://big12sports.com/news/2020/8/12/c...ports.aspx

[BostonCard]

I heard an interview with a reporter from the Athletic who said that despite the brave face put forward by the Big12, SEC, and ACC that her sources were expecting them to eventually postpone the season.  Guess we'll see.

BC

[BostonCard]

I heard an interview with a reporter from the Athletic who said that despite the brave face put forward by the Big12, SEC, and ACC that her sources were expecting them to eventually postpone the season.  Guess we'll see.

BC

[magnus]

UGa sent an email to donors this morning with regards to ticket availability for this season.   They're planning on allowing around 25% attendance. 

https://www.ajc.com/sports/georgia-bulld...TOCAW2UCM/

I assume this will be outdoors.  I'm curious what physical separation will be involved and perhaps more importantly,  how they will traffic the folks to and from their seats.

[magnus]

UGa sent an email to donors this morning with regards to ticket availability for this season.   They're planning on allowing around 25% attendance. 

https://www.ajc.com/sports/georgia-bulld...TOCAW2UCM/

I assume this will be outdoors.  I'm curious what physical separation will be involved and perhaps more importantly,  how they will traffic the folks to and from their seats.

[Farm93]

UGa sent an email to donors this morning with regards to ticket availability for this season.   They're planning on allowing around 25% attendance. 

https://www.ajc.com/sports/georgia-bulld...TOCAW2UCM/

I assume this will be outdoors.  I'm curious what physical separation will be involved and perhaps more importantly,  how they will traffic the folks to and from their seats.

Bama has a similar "plan".   ~25% of capacity.

It is not as if they will just be transported to their seats.   They will have to navigate through gates and tunnels with tickets and bags checked.  They will presumably need bathrooms opened and cleaned.    They will park cars in lots watched by attendants.  Those are all opportunities for employment of essential workers, but lots of opportunities for people to get exposed to the virus.

In Korea, after months with no more than one or two daily COVID death for weeks, they allowed far fewer fans into KBO games. 
I believe in Europe they were fairly close to letting fans in the professional soccer matches, but since the seasons were almost over the various leagues decided against that idea.
I heard Formula 1 will have fans for the Russian Grand Prix with the fans far...far...far away from the racing teams.   

So it looks to me like the SEC has embraced that USA "What About Them" mindset.   Once again Americans see other nations enjoying the fruits of the very hard work on COVID spread control and decide to do the same thing without copying the same hard work at the front end to crush the curve.

I am no longer shocked by risky and questionable choices of Americans related to COVID, though each time I see one of these stories I understand our fall/winter will be brutal and deadly nationwide.

[Farm93]

UGa sent an email to donors this morning with regards to ticket availability for this season.   They're planning on allowing around 25% attendance. 

https://www.ajc.com/sports/georgia-bulld...TOCAW2UCM/

I assume this will be outdoors.  I'm curious what physical separation will be involved and perhaps more importantly,  how they will traffic the folks to and from their seats.

Bama has a similar "plan".   ~25% of capacity.

It is not as if they will just be transported to their seats.   They will have to navigate through gates and tunnels with tickets and bags checked.  They will presumably need bathrooms opened and cleaned.    They will park cars in lots watched by attendants.  Those are all opportunities for employment of essential workers, but lots of opportunities for people to get exposed to the virus.

In Korea, after months with no more than one or two daily COVID death for weeks, they allowed far fewer fans into KBO games. 
I believe in Europe they were fairly close to letting fans in the professional soccer matches, but since the seasons were almost over the various leagues decided against that idea.
I heard Formula 1 will have fans for the Russian Grand Prix with the fans far...far...far away from the racing teams.   

So it looks to me like the SEC has embraced that USA "What About Them" mindset.   Once again Americans see other nations enjoying the fruits of the very hard work on COVID spread control and decide to do the same thing without copying the same hard work at the front end to crush the curve.

I am no longer shocked by risky and questionable choices of Americans related to COVID, though each time I see one of these stories I understand our fall/winter will be brutal and deadly nationwide.