[Snorlax94]

i am genuinely concerned for Joe Biden.
what is the probability that he will a)test positive and b)if so, that he got it from Trump?

I am concerned as well. I went back and checked the distancing from the first debate and the two were quite far apart and the room was quite large and airy — it was no church choir practice room. I’d think Chris Wallace is at higher risk. But I’d have to think security was excellent and doctors were consulted, negative air pressure was installed, no air recirculated, etc.

https://i.imgur.com/wp6B2lO_d.jpg


https://i.imgur.com/AhVV8dS_d.jpg

[Snorlax94]

i am genuinely concerned for Joe Biden.
what is the probability that he will a)test positive and b)if so, that he got it from Trump?

I am concerned as well. I went back and checked the distancing from the first debate and the two were quite far apart and the room was quite large and airy — it was no church choir practice room. I’d think Chris Wallace is at higher risk. But I’d have to think security was excellent and doctors were consulted, negative air pressure was installed, no air recirculated, etc.

https://i.imgur.com/wp6B2lO_d.jpg


https://i.imgur.com/AhVV8dS_d.jpg

[dabigv13]

Yeah but you'd have to think the US government could keep the most important person on earth safe, and yet.

If the room was negative pressure I'd be surprised.

90 minute time in relative proximity indoors, no masks. I'd say odds are pretty low but not zero.

[dabigv13]

Yeah but you'd have to think the US government could keep the most important person on earth safe, and yet.

If the room was negative pressure I'd be surprised.

90 minute time in relative proximity indoors, no masks. I'd say odds are pretty low but not zero.

[Farm93]

i am genuinely concerned for Joe Biden.
what is the probability that he will a)test positive and b)if so, that he got it from Trump?

a) Probability is unknown, but there are ample examples of indoor transmission that suggest it is possible.
   The Original Patient 31 in S. Korea infected several people beyond 6 ft in a church event.
   There have been a number of other church, wedding, funeral events that were probably similar to the debate situation.   In many of those cases a single person was able to transmit the virus to dozens of others over the span of a few hours.   At the debate we likely had several people that were pre-symptomatic and less than 24 hours from becoming symptomatic (a highly contagious time). 
  
b) Given multiple people were at the debate that we already know tested positive (POTUS, FLOTUS & Hicks to name a few) we would not know which person spread it to team Biden and/or Joe Biden.     
I can imagine (Hicks - Trump - Biden).   I can also imagine (Hicks - Team Biden Staffer at debate - Biden).  

As it takes a number of days to test positive I am sure Joe Biden and his team will prepare as if he has already been exposed.   It is the type of thing a prudent political leader SHOULD do given there is a deadly contagious disease floating around. 

Silver lining?   I hope this news will finally get COVID-deniers to realize this is a deadly virus that requires EVERYONE to take prudent actions.   Trump's positive test could save thousands of American lives AND allow the USA to get the greater control of COVID required for a more sustainable economic recovery.

[Farm93]

i am genuinely concerned for Joe Biden.
what is the probability that he will a)test positive and b)if so, that he got it from Trump?

a) Probability is unknown, but there are ample examples of indoor transmission that suggest it is possible.
   The Original Patient 31 in S. Korea infected several people beyond 6 ft in a church event.
   There have been a number of other church, wedding, funeral events that were probably similar to the debate situation.   In many of those cases a single person was able to transmit the virus to dozens of others over the span of a few hours.   At the debate we likely had several people that were pre-symptomatic and less than 24 hours from becoming symptomatic (a highly contagious time). 
  
b) Given multiple people were at the debate that we already know tested positive (POTUS, FLOTUS & Hicks to name a few) we would not know which person spread it to team Biden and/or Joe Biden.     
I can imagine (Hicks - Trump - Biden).   I can also imagine (Hicks - Team Biden Staffer at debate - Biden).  

As it takes a number of days to test positive I am sure Joe Biden and his team will prepare as if he has already been exposed.   It is the type of thing a prudent political leader SHOULD do given there is a deadly contagious disease floating around. 

Silver lining?   I hope this news will finally get COVID-deniers to realize this is a deadly virus that requires EVERYONE to take prudent actions.   Trump's positive test could save thousands of American lives AND allow the USA to get the greater control of COVID required for a more sustainable economic recovery.

[OutsiderFan]

It isn't hindsight for me to say "WTF did they have the Tuesday night cockfight (not a debate in any sense of the word) with both 70+ year old men in the same room without a mask? "

Not only did it set a TERRIBLE example for the country and World, it was reckless. I've even been questioning why either candidate is doing any campaigning in person. Is the reward for going around the country worth the risk of getting Covid when you are in a position of responsibility that impacts the entire country and maybe even the world to some degree, or campaigning for it?

But OMG how incompetent does the White House look now. Even with more ability to create a virus-free environment, than any non medical setting in the world, they flouted expert advice, took stupid risks, and exposed the entire government to Covid infection.  There is plenty of justification for ousting the current managers of the Federal Government, but this absolutely takes the cake. They are so incompetent they can't even protect themselves. Just utterly breathtaking.

[OutsiderFan]

It isn't hindsight for me to say "WTF did they have the Tuesday night cockfight (not a debate in any sense of the word) with both 70+ year old men in the same room without a mask? "

Not only did it set a TERRIBLE example for the country and World, it was reckless. I've even been questioning why either candidate is doing any campaigning in person. Is the reward for going around the country worth the risk of getting Covid when you are in a position of responsibility that impacts the entire country and maybe even the world to some degree, or campaigning for it?

But OMG how incompetent does the White House look now. Even with more ability to create a virus-free environment, than any non medical setting in the world, they flouted expert advice, took stupid risks, and exposed the entire government to Covid infection.  There is plenty of justification for ousting the current managers of the Federal Government, but this absolutely takes the cake. They are so incompetent they can't even protect themselves. Just utterly breathtaking.

[Farm93]

It isn't hindsight for me to say "WTF did they have the Tuesday night cockfight (not a debate in any sense of the word) with both 70+ year old men in the same room without a mask? "

Not only did it set a TERRIBLE example for the country and World, it was reckless. I've even been questioning why either candidate is doing any campaigning in person. Is the reward for going around the country worth the risk of getting Covid when you are in a position of responsibility that impacts the entire country and maybe even the world to some degree, or campaigning for it?

But OMG how incompetent does the White House look now. Even with more ability to create a virus-free environment, than any non medical setting in the world, they flouted expert advice, took stupid risks, and exposed the entire government to Covid infection.  There is plenty of justification for ousting the current managers of the Federal Government, but this absolutely takes the cake. They are so incompetent they can't even protect themselves. Just utterly breathtaking.

The two candidates were reasonably far apart.   Hopefully it was far enough apart. 

However, several other things from Team Trump are not as easy to dismiss.
1) Most of the members of team Trump at the debate did not wear masks and even refused to wear masks after the Cleveland Clinic medical personnel informed them of the need to wear masks per policies.   So tragic as at least two of the members of team Trump (FLOTUS and Hicks) were less than 24 hours away from showing symptoms.

2) POTUS, knowing he had been in close contact with Hicks, still went to a fundraiser AND talked to donors without a mask.

[Farm93]

It isn't hindsight for me to say "WTF did they have the Tuesday night cockfight (not a debate in any sense of the word) with both 70+ year old men in the same room without a mask? "

Not only did it set a TERRIBLE example for the country and World, it was reckless. I've even been questioning why either candidate is doing any campaigning in person. Is the reward for going around the country worth the risk of getting Covid when you are in a position of responsibility that impacts the entire country and maybe even the world to some degree, or campaigning for it?

But OMG how incompetent does the White House look now. Even with more ability to create a virus-free environment, than any non medical setting in the world, they flouted expert advice, took stupid risks, and exposed the entire government to Covid infection.  There is plenty of justification for ousting the current managers of the Federal Government, but this absolutely takes the cake. They are so incompetent they can't even protect themselves. Just utterly breathtaking.

The two candidates were reasonably far apart.   Hopefully it was far enough apart. 

However, several other things from Team Trump are not as easy to dismiss.
1) Most of the members of team Trump at the debate did not wear masks and even refused to wear masks after the Cleveland Clinic medical personnel informed them of the need to wear masks per policies.   So tragic as at least two of the members of team Trump (FLOTUS and Hicks) were less than 24 hours away from showing symptoms.

2) POTUS, knowing he had been in close contact with Hicks, still went to a fundraiser AND talked to donors without a mask.

[magnus]

POTUS is experiencing mild symptoms according to Meadows.

Pence has tested negative this morning.

[magnus]

POTUS is experiencing mild symptoms according to Meadows.

Pence has tested negative this morning.

[BostonCard]

The RNC chair now tested positive for COVID-19.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/axios/status/1312025752653778944?s=20[/tweet]

BC

[BostonCard]

The RNC chair now tested positive for COVID-19.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/axios/status/1312025752653778944?s=20[/tweet]

BC

[magnus]

Mike Lee has tested positive.  He was with Barrett on Tuesday (she has thus far tested negative)

[magnus]

Mike Lee has tested positive.  He was with Barrett on Tuesday (she has thus far tested negative)

[BostonCard]

Biden has tested negative (but again, too soon to exclude a positive COVID-19 test because his exposure would have been three days ago).

BC

---

I wonder if Trump will wind up being a super-spreader:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/schwartzbCNBC/status/1312044438429073408?s=20[/tweet]

BC

[BostonCard]

Biden has tested negative (but again, too soon to exclude a positive COVID-19 test because his exposure would have been three days ago).

BC

---

I wonder if Trump will wind up being a super-spreader:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/schwartzbCNBC/status/1312044438429073408?s=20[/tweet]

BC

[Goose]

Silver lining?   I hope this news will finally get COVID-deniers to realize this is a deadly virus that requires EVERYONE to take prudent actions.   Trump's positive test could save thousands of American lives AND allow the USA to get the greater control of COVID required for a more sustainable economic recovery.

Possibly, but I think it is much more probable that Trump has minor symptoms, recovers fully, and tells everybody "What's the big deal? I have had worse from the flu". The N of 1 proves nothing, but he won't look at it that way, and neither will lots of others who basically agree with him. I can't bring myself to hope he has even a Boris Johnson type experience, because I can't wish serious illness on anybody, but I admit I am tempted.

[Goose]

Silver lining?   I hope this news will finally get COVID-deniers to realize this is a deadly virus that requires EVERYONE to take prudent actions.   Trump's positive test could save thousands of American lives AND allow the USA to get the greater control of COVID required for a more sustainable economic recovery.

Possibly, but I think it is much more probable that Trump has minor symptoms, recovers fully, and tells everybody "What's the big deal? I have had worse from the flu". The N of 1 proves nothing, but he won't look at it that way, and neither will lots of others who basically agree with him. I can't bring myself to hope he has even a Boris Johnson type experience, because I can't wish serious illness on anybody, but I admit I am tempted.

[dabigv13]

ND president Jenkins, at ACB event as well, positive.

[dabigv13]

ND president Jenkins, at ACB event as well, positive.

[dabigv13]

On monoclonal abs....

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/02/healt...tment.html

Hard to say if he's only mildly symptomatic, though that may be peak effectiveness for the drug. If the president has a bad reaction from an unapproved drug.....eep! They should be generally safe, but...

[dabigv13]

On monoclonal abs....

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/02/healt...tment.html

Hard to say if he's only mildly symptomatic, though that may be peak effectiveness for the drug. If the president has a bad reaction from an unapproved drug.....eep! They should be generally safe, but...

[Goose]

On monoclonal abs....

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/02/healt...tment.html

Hard to say if he's only mildly symptomatic, though that may be peak effectiveness for the drug. If the president has a bad reaction from an unapproved drug.....eep! They should be generally safe, but...

OTOH, if he recovers quickly he just may assign the credit to the monoclonal antibodies and give them a big boost. IMHO, that wouldn't be a bad thing. Granted, personal experience (N==1) shouldn't drive such decisions, but since this POTUS clearly does react that way having him behind something that probably does have merit is certainly better than bleach.

[Goose]

On monoclonal abs....

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/02/healt...tment.html

Hard to say if he's only mildly symptomatic, though that may be peak effectiveness for the drug. If the president has a bad reaction from an unapproved drug.....eep! They should be generally safe, but...

OTOH, if he recovers quickly he just may assign the credit to the monoclonal antibodies and give them a big boost. IMHO, that wouldn't be a bad thing. Granted, personal experience (N==1) shouldn't drive such decisions, but since this POTUS clearly does react that way having him behind something that probably does have merit is certainly better than bleach.

[BostonCard]

On monoclonal abs....

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/02/healt...tment.html

Hard to say if he's only mildly symptomatic, though that may be peak effectiveness for the drug. If the president has a bad reaction from an unapproved drug.....eep! They should be generally safe, but...

Yup, would be a tough call.  And even remdisivir carries some risk; evaluating its safety is hard given that the studies were in hospitalized patients with a lot of other stuff going on.  Given the extraordinary circumstances, I might ask the companies to convene an emergency iDMC for ongoing studies and present the most up-to-date data in order to make the best risk/benefit assessment.  Timing is the issue; even under the best of circumstances it takes time to clean, prepare, and analyze the data.

BC

[BostonCard]

On monoclonal abs....

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/02/healt...tment.html

Hard to say if he's only mildly symptomatic, though that may be peak effectiveness for the drug. If the president has a bad reaction from an unapproved drug.....eep! They should be generally safe, but...

Yup, would be a tough call.  And even remdisivir carries some risk; evaluating its safety is hard given that the studies were in hospitalized patients with a lot of other stuff going on.  Given the extraordinary circumstances, I might ask the companies to convene an emergency iDMC for ongoing studies and present the most up-to-date data in order to make the best risk/benefit assessment.  Timing is the issue; even under the best of circumstances it takes time to clean, prepare, and analyze the data.

BC

[oregontim]

All of this thread reminds me how deeply the Trump movement, social media campaigns masquerading as real people, and other organized misinformation have cut into public confidence and our sense of knowing what the hell is going on. The president announced his Covid first by himself, on Twitter. White house doctors have confirmed. But I’m still not sure it isn’t just a campaign stunt. And millions of others have similar doubts.

[oregontim]

All of this thread reminds me how deeply the Trump movement, social media campaigns masquerading as real people, and other organized misinformation have cut into public confidence and our sense of knowing what the hell is going on. The president announced his Covid first by himself, on Twitter. White house doctors have confirmed. But I’m still not sure it isn’t just a campaign stunt. And millions of others have similar doubts.

[BostonCard]

In case you want to keep track of who has tested positive and who has tested negative...

https://www.axios.com/trump-republicans-...bf2f7.html

It is a sad commentary on today's state of affairs that the President is hit by COVID-19 and some people's reaction is "I'm still not sure it isn't just a campaign stunt."

BC

[BostonCard]

In case you want to keep track of who has tested positive and who has tested negative...

https://www.axios.com/trump-republicans-...bf2f7.html

It is a sad commentary on today's state of affairs that the President is hit by COVID-19 and some people's reaction is "I'm still not sure it isn't just a campaign stunt."

BC

[Farm93]

All of this thread reminds me how deeply the Trump movement, social media campaigns masquerading as real people, and other organized misinformation have cut into public confidence and our sense of knowing what the hell is going on. The president announced his Covid first by himself, on Twitter. White house doctors have confirmed. But I’m still not sure it isn’t just a campaign stunt. And millions of others have similar doubts.

I think you could play that conspiracy game with "just" POTUS45, FLOTUS, and a single key staffer.   However, Senator Lee and the RNC Chair probably would not be inclined to play the same game.   Even if you believe in a last RNC level game, the President of Notre Dame definitely would not play that game given that he is a president of a Catholic University and it is certain the Pope would not be pleased with lying about a global pandemic.

What seems more likely is the WH has had a major outbreak.   They can either isolate to stop the spread (unlikely) or they will ignore the outbreak and put many others at risk (highly likely).

FWIW - A COVID outbreak is a massive loser for POTUS45's re-election campaign, so highly unlikely they would select this path over just dealing with the existing negative feedback on other fronts.

[Farm93]

All of this thread reminds me how deeply the Trump movement, social media campaigns masquerading as real people, and other organized misinformation have cut into public confidence and our sense of knowing what the hell is going on. The president announced his Covid first by himself, on Twitter. White house doctors have confirmed. But I’m still not sure it isn’t just a campaign stunt. And millions of others have similar doubts.

I think you could play that conspiracy game with "just" POTUS45, FLOTUS, and a single key staffer.   However, Senator Lee and the RNC Chair probably would not be inclined to play the same game.   Even if you believe in a last RNC level game, the President of Notre Dame definitely would not play that game given that he is a president of a Catholic University and it is certain the Pope would not be pleased with lying about a global pandemic.

What seems more likely is the WH has had a major outbreak.   They can either isolate to stop the spread (unlikely) or they will ignore the outbreak and put many others at risk (highly likely).

FWIW - A COVID outbreak is a massive loser for POTUS45's re-election campaign, so highly unlikely they would select this path over just dealing with the existing negative feedback on other fronts.

[dabigv13]

Last night, I thought maybe there could be a small snall chance of a conspiracy, if it were Hicks, Trump, Melania. I agree with F93, Lee and Jenkins makes it much less likely. 

Ultimately, the guy who travels widely to hotspot regions with a small group of folks who don't wear masks and downplay the seriousness of the disease getting covid is much more likely than a conspiracy.

[dabigv13]

Last night, I thought maybe there could be a small snall chance of a conspiracy, if it were Hicks, Trump, Melania. I agree with F93, Lee and Jenkins makes it much less likely. 

Ultimately, the guy who travels widely to hotspot regions with a small group of folks who don't wear masks and downplay the seriousness of the disease getting covid is much more likely than a conspiracy.

[Goose]

All of this thread reminds me how deeply the Trump movement, social media campaigns masquerading as real people, and other organized misinformation have cut into public confidence and our sense of knowing what the hell is going on. The president announced his Covid first by himself, on Twitter. White house doctors have confirmed. But I’m still not sure it isn’t just a campaign stunt. And millions of others have similar doubts.

Unfortunately, I think real people on social media are a much bigger problem than social media campaigns. In the past, we didn't hear/read about every crackpot idea, wishful thinking, speculation, rumor, biased evaluation etc of the entire world populace. Now we do, and the noise level has risen to the point finding the signal, if any, is very very difficult. On top of that, real people on social media amplify the noise generated by other people (real or bots). It becomes positive feedback of misinformation.

Organized misinformation campaigns are a problem, but I think a much greater problem is generated by organizations that are genuinely trying to report facts, but are actually so selectively biased that they don't actually do that. The population embraces reports/media that share their biases and trust other reports/media not at all. Thus unless one of their approved sources reports it, it isn't true.

[Goose]

All of this thread reminds me how deeply the Trump movement, social media campaigns masquerading as real people, and other organized misinformation have cut into public confidence and our sense of knowing what the hell is going on. The president announced his Covid first by himself, on Twitter. White house doctors have confirmed. But I’m still not sure it isn’t just a campaign stunt. And millions of others have similar doubts.

Unfortunately, I think real people on social media are a much bigger problem than social media campaigns. In the past, we didn't hear/read about every crackpot idea, wishful thinking, speculation, rumor, biased evaluation etc of the entire world populace. Now we do, and the noise level has risen to the point finding the signal, if any, is very very difficult. On top of that, real people on social media amplify the noise generated by other people (real or bots). It becomes positive feedback of misinformation.

Organized misinformation campaigns are a problem, but I think a much greater problem is generated by organizations that are genuinely trying to report facts, but are actually so selectively biased that they don't actually do that. The population embraces reports/media that share their biases and trust other reports/media not at all. Thus unless one of their approved sources reports it, it isn't true.

[OutsiderFan]

Village Idiot and White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows at the White House this morning, when asked why he is addressing reporters without a mask on:

"Because I tested negative and masks aren't 100% positive."

Hours later, Meadows tests positive.

[OutsiderFan]

Village Idiot and White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows at the White House this morning, when asked why he is addressing reporters without a mask on:

"Because I tested negative and masks aren't 100% positive."

Hours later, Meadows tests positive.