(10-04-2024, 03:41 PM)BostonCard Wrote: One thing is that I think this helps explain why even in matches where we win pretty decisively, we sometimes give up a set. Let's say that on average, we can expect 1-2 "runs" per set, defined as a at least four consecutive points (this is just a simplifying assumption; runs aren't going to be exactly four points). Let's also say that against a team that we beat, if we get two 4-point runs, we will beat them 25-19. Of course, sometimes we only get one run, in which case we are looking at a much closer match (would be 21-19 without the run, and a battle to the finish). If we get zero runs, as sometimes happens, the other team leads 19-17 and can beat us. If we get more than two runs, it's a blow-out and we get two 25 well before they hit even 19. Because you can usually but not always get a run, you sometimes have weird sets where an otherwise overmatched opponent will take a set.
BC
Interesting thought. I'm no expert, but I kinda doubt that math works. Serves are individual events. As far as I know, playing VB doesn't bundle into runs like that, except when viewed after the fact. (No doubt that with certain servers and/or certain rotation match-ups, there will be more runs in certain rotations.)
I think a better way to
look at this is to ignore the modern scoring and go back to scoring only when on serve. Add those points for each team and you'il get the final differential. Of course, side-outs influence how quickly the game ends. To win by N points, you need to win N (+/- 1) more of your serves than the opponent does. (Indeed, in my head, I keep track of the score that way. Initial serving team gets a negative 0.5 points. Side outs count for nothing, so don't affect how much one team is up or down.)
A swing from a first set 25-20 win to a second set 20-25 loss is a swing of about 10 wins-on-service. What happened? Well, the opponent adjusted, perhaps how they receive, or who they serve to, where sets are going, or how the blockers react.
I just don't think you can simplify it down to getting or missing a set of runs.
Someone's label of "over-performing" or "under-performing" is simply a reflection of that person's perception of the team and its opponents. Matters not a hoot to me. I'm not someone who gambles, so I don't really care much what others think.
In case you missed it, the team is sitting at #5, right where their pre-season ranking was. By that measure, they're performing on track.
This team is doing well and I support them. (I feel certain I'd support them even if they weren't doing well.) But then I'm a fan. I will cheer when they win and ache when they lose.
I do believe Stanford has an elite coach who will help them develop as much as possible. I've already said that their travel is a big impediment to their having the best record during the season. I'm hoping that despite the travel, their performance in the NC tourney will be good.