12-29-2025, 02:32 PM
The non-conference schedule, heavy on Quad 3 & Quad 4 home games, is over. Before previewing the Notre Dame game, let's take stock of what's happened so far and what it might portend for the rest of the season. The record is 11-2, consisting of: 1-0 (Quad 1 - Saint Louis); 1-0 (Quad 2 - Colorado); 4-1 (Quad 3); and 5-1 (Quad 4). What lies ahead in ACC play is 9 Quad 1 games, 5 Quad 2s, 3 Quad 3s, and a single Quad 4. The win over Saint Louis was nice, but according to many of the various rating systems, there are 6-7 ACC teams rated higher than the Billikens. And the losses to Seattle & UNLV illustrate Stanford's vulnerabilities even when playing as a favorite.
Stanford was picked in the pre-season poll to finish 17th (of 18) in the ACC. Based on non-conference record, Stanford is tied for 5th! Of course that's meaningless due to wildly divergent strength of schedules. (By the way, per that measure, Cal is tied for 1st with UNC, a half game ahead of Duke.) According to some of the rating systems, Stanford's ratings nationally and in the ACC are: Massey - #55/#10; KenPom - #86/#14; Bart Torvick - #72/#12; ESPN BPI - #86/#15. There are several publications that put out periodical (typically weekly) ACC power rankings - my personal favorite, simply because of the name, is The Fighting Gobbler (Va Tech). I've seen 7 of these that all have Stanford ranked between 11th & 14th.
So what are some reasonable hopes/expectations for the remainder of the season? I stumbled across a website this morning that I hadn't seen before called inccstats. Among other things, they have an NCAA Tourney chance for every team - Stanford's is 10.9%. Even that low number seems a bit optimistic to me. I know we're all tired of the NIT, but I think even that might be an optimistic goal this season. At this point, my attention is just on how Stanford will fare in the ACC standings, keeping in mind the ACC tournament structure - the top 4 teams get 2 byes (1st game is in the quarterfinals); #5-#9 each get a single bye into the round of 16; #10-#15 each play in one of the 3 first round games; #16-#18 get an early Spring Break.
Last season Stanford went 11-9 in the ACC to finish 7th. Cal got the last tourney spot with a 6-14 record. The #8 team was 10-10, #s 9-13 were all 8-12, and #14 was 7-13. This year the league season has been cut down from 20 games to 18. According to ESPNs BPI, Stanford is predicted to have an ACC record of 6.4-11.6. As an over/under for Stanford ACC victories, 6.4 seems pretty reasonable. For me, the floor is 4 wins (winning all of the Quad 3 & 4 games - none of which will be a given) and the ceiling is 9 wins (winning 5 of the 14 Quad 1 & 2 games - or more to offset any Quad 3 or 4 losses). So in terms of the ACC tourney - in my view missing it would be a failure, playing a first round game would be the expectation, and getting a bye to the round of 16 would be the (likely unrealistic) hope.
My glasses are usually a bit more cardinal-colored than that, but a couple of things temper my optimism. After having attended 7 games and watching the others on TV, I think the 8-man rotation (hopefully 9 if Donavin Young can work his way back in) is OK, but that only Okorie provides a consistent threat that opponents will have to account for. When everyone is playing well together at both ends of the floor - hitting 3s, forcing turnovers & getting into transition offense - Stanford can be a lot of fun to watch. But far too often (CSUN game - first 10 minutes and 2nd half between 5 & 10 minutes remaining), there are long stretches when the defense disappears, shots don't fall, and turnovers come in bunches.
Also, I'm not sure that the schedule is favorable. Last season, Stanford played most of the toughest ACC opponents on the road. That did not go well - other than the memorable win at UNC and a win at Cal. But at Maples, Stanford was able to take advantage, going 9-1. This season, many more of the top teams will come to Maples. That could good, but I'm not convinced that whatever homecourt "advantage" that provides (travel - for sure, atmosphere - maybe not so much) will make enough of a difference vs. Duke, Louisville, etc. On the other hand, going on the road against opponents that Stanford should be competitive with will make victories a bit tougher to come by.
That's probably more than enough for one post, so I'll follow up with the Notre Dame preview in a bit. One thing I will say is that this first ACC game might be the single most important one for Stanford in terms of determining their ACC success (or lack thereof).
Stanford was picked in the pre-season poll to finish 17th (of 18) in the ACC. Based on non-conference record, Stanford is tied for 5th! Of course that's meaningless due to wildly divergent strength of schedules. (By the way, per that measure, Cal is tied for 1st with UNC, a half game ahead of Duke.) According to some of the rating systems, Stanford's ratings nationally and in the ACC are: Massey - #55/#10; KenPom - #86/#14; Bart Torvick - #72/#12; ESPN BPI - #86/#15. There are several publications that put out periodical (typically weekly) ACC power rankings - my personal favorite, simply because of the name, is The Fighting Gobbler (Va Tech). I've seen 7 of these that all have Stanford ranked between 11th & 14th.
So what are some reasonable hopes/expectations for the remainder of the season? I stumbled across a website this morning that I hadn't seen before called inccstats. Among other things, they have an NCAA Tourney chance for every team - Stanford's is 10.9%. Even that low number seems a bit optimistic to me. I know we're all tired of the NIT, but I think even that might be an optimistic goal this season. At this point, my attention is just on how Stanford will fare in the ACC standings, keeping in mind the ACC tournament structure - the top 4 teams get 2 byes (1st game is in the quarterfinals); #5-#9 each get a single bye into the round of 16; #10-#15 each play in one of the 3 first round games; #16-#18 get an early Spring Break.
Last season Stanford went 11-9 in the ACC to finish 7th. Cal got the last tourney spot with a 6-14 record. The #8 team was 10-10, #s 9-13 were all 8-12, and #14 was 7-13. This year the league season has been cut down from 20 games to 18. According to ESPNs BPI, Stanford is predicted to have an ACC record of 6.4-11.6. As an over/under for Stanford ACC victories, 6.4 seems pretty reasonable. For me, the floor is 4 wins (winning all of the Quad 3 & 4 games - none of which will be a given) and the ceiling is 9 wins (winning 5 of the 14 Quad 1 & 2 games - or more to offset any Quad 3 or 4 losses). So in terms of the ACC tourney - in my view missing it would be a failure, playing a first round game would be the expectation, and getting a bye to the round of 16 would be the (likely unrealistic) hope.
My glasses are usually a bit more cardinal-colored than that, but a couple of things temper my optimism. After having attended 7 games and watching the others on TV, I think the 8-man rotation (hopefully 9 if Donavin Young can work his way back in) is OK, but that only Okorie provides a consistent threat that opponents will have to account for. When everyone is playing well together at both ends of the floor - hitting 3s, forcing turnovers & getting into transition offense - Stanford can be a lot of fun to watch. But far too often (CSUN game - first 10 minutes and 2nd half between 5 & 10 minutes remaining), there are long stretches when the defense disappears, shots don't fall, and turnovers come in bunches.
Also, I'm not sure that the schedule is favorable. Last season, Stanford played most of the toughest ACC opponents on the road. That did not go well - other than the memorable win at UNC and a win at Cal. But at Maples, Stanford was able to take advantage, going 9-1. This season, many more of the top teams will come to Maples. That could good, but I'm not convinced that whatever homecourt "advantage" that provides (travel - for sure, atmosphere - maybe not so much) will make enough of a difference vs. Duke, Louisville, etc. On the other hand, going on the road against opponents that Stanford should be competitive with will make victories a bit tougher to come by.
That's probably more than enough for one post, so I'll follow up with the Notre Dame preview in a bit. One thing I will say is that this first ACC game might be the single most important one for Stanford in terms of determining their ACC success (or lack thereof).
